Gale Warning 832, NWS Anchorage, AK

020 
FZAK62 PAFC 070014 CCA
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
314 PM AKST SUN DEC 6 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-071445-
314 PM AKST SUN DEC 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A BROAD 968 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 53N 166W WILL MOVE TO 52N 171W AT
962 MB MON AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE TO 53N 163W AT 967 MB TUE
AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-071445-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
314 PM AKST SUN DEC 6 2015

...STORM WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 17 TO 26 FT. SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...N WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 16 TO 25 FT. SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 18 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.TUE...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 18 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.THU...W WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.

$$

PKZ412-071445-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
314 PM AKST SUN DEC 6 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 18 FT. RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.FRI...S WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ413-071445-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
314 PM AKST SUN DEC 6 2015

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.MON...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ414-071445-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
314 PM AKST SUN DEC 6 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

403 
FZAK62 PAFC 071241
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
341 AM AKST MON DEC 7 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-080230-
341 AM AKST MON DEC 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 963 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR DUTCH HARBOR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THEN
DRIFT TO 51N 158W AT 973 MB LATE TUE NIGHT...LEAVING BROAD LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE BERING SEA. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS LATE TUE NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-080230-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
341 AM AKST MON DEC 7 2015

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 17 TO 24 FT. SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY W OF 176E.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. FREEZING SPRAY W OF 176E.
.TUE...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 17 FT. FREEZING SPRAY W OF 176E.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.THU...W WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.

$$

PKZ412-080230-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
341 AM AKST MON DEC 7 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 17 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING
SPRAY N OF 58N.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 TO 18 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 TO 18 FT. SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY N OF 58N.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.FRI...S WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ413-080230-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
341 AM AKST MON DEC 7 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.TUE...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 TO 17 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ414-080230-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
341 AM AKST MON DEC 7 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. RAIN WITH SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

128 
FZAK62 PAFC 080015
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
315 PM AKST MON DEC 7 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-081515-
315 PM AKST MON DEC 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 962 MB LOW NEAR 53N 170W MOVES TO 53N 162W AT 966 MB TUE
AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE 965 MB GULF LOW NEAR 57N
151W WED AFTERNOON. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL
BERING TUE AFTERNOON AND REMAINS STATIONARY THROUGH WED AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-081515-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
315 PM AKST MON DEC 7 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 TO 20 FT. FREEZING SPRAY W OF
175E.
.TUE...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.

$$

PKZ412-081515-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
315 PM AKST MON DEC 7 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY N OF 58N.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N OF
57N.
.WED...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT.

$$

PKZ413-081515-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
315 PM AKST MON DEC 7 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 17 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT. SNOW AND
RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.SAT...E WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT.

$$

PKZ414-081515-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
315 PM AKST MON DEC 7 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY
N OF 58N.
.WED...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.

$$

670 
FZAK62 PAFC 081252
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
352 AM AKST TUE DEC 8 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-090245-
352 AM AKST TUE DEC 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 964 MB LOW NEAR 52N 168W BECOMES ABSORBED BY A 958 MB LOW NEAR 57N
148W WED MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL
BERING TUE AFTERNOON AND REMAINS STATIONARY THROUGH THU MORNING.
A 997 LOW NEAR 53N 171E WED MORNING MAINTAINS STRENGTH AS IT MOVES
TO 52N 178E BEFORE DISSIPATING WED AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-090245-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
352 AM AKST TUE DEC 8 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT. SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.THU...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT.

$$

PKZ412-090245-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
352 AM AKST TUE DEC 8 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 20 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 15 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.THU...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT.

$$

PKZ413-090245-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
352 AM AKST TUE DEC 8 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND
SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.WED...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.FRI...E WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 TO 28 FT.

$$

PKZ414-090245-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
352 AM AKST TUE DEC 8 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. SNOW.
.WED...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.

$$

193 
FZAK62 PAFC 090046
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
346 PM AKST TUE DEC 8 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-091530-
346 PM AKST TUE DEC 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 968 MB LOW NEAR 52N 164W BECOMES ABSORBED BY A 957 MB LOW NEAR
57N 148W BY WED MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT DEVELOPS OVER THE
CENTRAL BERING WED MORNING DRIFTS THROUGH THE EASTERN BERING BY
THU MORNING.

$$

PKZ411-091530-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
346 PM AKST TUE DEC 8 2015

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N OF
58N.
.THU...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 29 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 21 TO 35 FT.

$$

PKZ412-091530-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
346 PM AKST TUE DEC 8 2015

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY
AFTER MIDNIGHT N OF 58N.
.THU...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 TO 24 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 28 TO 37 FT.

$$

PKZ413-091530-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
346 PM AKST TUE DEC 8 2015

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.WED...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW.
.THU...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 30 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 28 TO 38 FT.

$$

PKZ414-091530-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
346 PM AKST TUE DEC 8 2015

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE TO NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY N OF 58N.
.THU...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 17 TO 32 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
511 AM AKST SUN DEC 6 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA.
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ARE TWO VERTICALLY STACKED LOWS...ONE SOUTH
OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND ON SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS.
THERE IS ALSO A WEAK SHORT-WAVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST BERING AND
ALASKA PENINSULA...WHICH IS ESSENTIALLY A "BACK DOOR" WARM FRONT
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. FURTHER EAST THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE LOWER
LEVELS. THERE IS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST CENTRAL GULF MOVING TOWARDS
THE WEST. THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE OVER THE GULF TO BRING SOME
SHOWERS TO KODIAK ISLAND IN NORTHEAST FLOW.

OF NOTE FROM A LARGER WEATHER/CLIMATE PERSPECTIVE IS THE VERY
EXTENDED EAST ASIAN JET (EAJ). THIS IS RUNNING ALMOST DUE EAST
BETWEEN 35 AND 40 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE FROM KOREA TO ABOUT 140
DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE. THE WINDS IN THIS JET EXCEED 190 KTS IN
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN PACIFIC. THIS EXTENDED EAJ IS A COMMON
OCCURRENCE DURING EL NINO YEARS AND IS A SIGN THAT THE CURRENT EL
NINO IS WELL COUPLED WITH THE MID LATITUDE WEATHER AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE
SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN
HOW THEY HANDLE THE INTERACTION OF THE VARIOUS LOWS OVER AND JUST
SOUTH OF THE EASTERN/CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA FROM
SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS DOES NOT HAVE A
LARGE IMPACT ON THE WEATHER FORECAST...BUT DOES INTRODUCE SOME
UNCERTAINTY. WITH THIS IN MIND...THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NEAR
NORMAL FOR THE ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA AND A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA MAINLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
MUCH OF THE FOG AND STRATUS IN THE ANCHORAGE AND MATANUSKA VALLEY
AREA DISSIPATED OVERNIGHT. THERE WERE SOME HIGH CLOUDS PASSING
OVERHEAD WHICH MAY HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO THIS. THE MORE LIKELY
CULPRIT IS THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL FLOW BEGINNING AT A FEW
HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE AS SEEN IN THE 12Z ANCHORAGE
SOUNDING. EXPECT SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THIS FLOW TODAY SO WE MAY
NOT BE COMPLETELY DONE WITH THE FOG/STRATUS. DO NOT EXPECT IT TO
BECOME WIDESPREAD BUT PATCHES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO FLOAT ALONG
KNIK ARM. THE OTHER PROBLEM AREA IS THE COPPER RIVER BASIN WHERE
STRATUS IS WIDESPREAD. THIS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES STEADY OVERNIGHT.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD THERE WILL NOT BE ANYTHING TO
MIX OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HAVE INCREASED TEMPERATURES WITH
THIS IN MIND...BUT STILL EXPECT SOME COOLING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS. IF IT DOES CLEAR OUT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY. ASIDE
FROM THESE TWO ISSUES EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL
WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES.

MEANWHILE...A FRONT WHICH HAS BEEN TRACKING WESTWARD ACROSS THE
GULF WILL CROSS KODIAK ISLAND TODAY BRINGING STEADY RAIN. COLDER
AIR OVER INTERIOR SOUTHCENTRAL COMBINED WITH PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
TO THE SOUTH HAS KICKED UP GAP WINDS ALONG THE PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND AND THE GULF COAST...BUT EXPECT SOME SLACKENING OF PRESSURE
GRADIENTS AND WINDS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE FRONT EXITS.
KODIAK WILL CONTINUE TO SEE PERIODS OF RAIN ON THE NORTHEAST
PERIPHERY OF A LOW COMPLEX SITTING OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND NORTH
CENTRAL PACIFIC.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA REGION HAS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED
OVER THE AREA WITH CONTINUED OFFSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN
COLD TEMPERATURES WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR SUNDAY. BY LATE
SUNDAY A WARM FRONT WILL TRACK INTO THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND
TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING IN
WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION FALLING
ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHWEST COASTLINE. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL RAIN ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND A
BRIEF TRANSITION ZONE OF WINTRY MIX...EXCEPT ALL SNOW FROM
DILLINGHAM NORTH AND WEST ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COASTLINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
AT THE SURFACE THERE IS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SOUTH
OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THAT WILL TRACK OVER DUTCH HARBOR BY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING NEAR NIKOLSKI BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING PREDOMINANTLY GALE FORCE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
FROM THE NORTHERN TO LOWER WESTERN BERING SEA THROUGH THE WESTERN
TO CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO STORM FORCE IN
THE WESTERN BERING SEA BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS BY MONDAY. THESE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING
COLDER TEMPERATURES RESULTING IN A SHOWERY WEATHER REGIME. WHILE
DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS SYSTEM THERE WILL BE WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS THAT WILL SPILL OVER INTO THE EASTERN BERING
SEA. ALL THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS RESULTING IN GALE FORCE SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS
THROUGH THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND THE BRISTOL BAY REGION HEADING
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...MON THROUGH FRI)...
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN BERING THAT HAS BEEN A
SEMI-PERMANENT FEATURE LATELY WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT INTO THE GULF
AND DEEPEN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A GALE (OR POTENTIALLY
STORM FORCE) LOW INTO THE GULF BY LATE MONDAY WHICH WILL PERSIST
IN THE GULF AND SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE COURSE OF NEXT WEEK UNDER
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER
CONFINED TO THE GULF AND EASTERN BERING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. OVER SOUTHCENTRAL THIS WILL BRING GENERALLY OFFSHORE FLOW
AND CLEAR SKIES FOR MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL...WHILE OVER THE
BERING...BROAD NORTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BRING COLD AIR
ADVECTION SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA. BY LATE NEXT WEEK THERE IS
VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE GULF LOW WILL DISSIPATE
SOMEWHERE AROUND THE NORTH GULF COAST...BRINGING INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL TO THE SOUTH MAINLAND.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 160 180 181 185.
         STORM WARNING 178 411.
         GALE WARNING 130 138 160 165 175 176 177 179 180 181 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD
LONG TERM...DEK