Gale Warning 83, NWS Anchorage, AK

366 
FZAK52 PAFC 222348
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
248 PM AKST THU JAN 22 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-231230-
248 PM AKST THU JAN 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 970 MB LOW 200 NM SOUTH OF CHIGNIK WILL WEAKEN AS IT SINKS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC THROUGH SAT. MEANWHILE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL
BERING SEA ON FRI. A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS 
ON SAT.

$$

PKZ150-231230-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
248 PM AKST THU JAN 22 2015

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ155-231230-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
248 PM AKST THU JAN 22 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ160-231230-
BRISTOL BAY-
248 PM AKST THU JAN 22 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8
FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ165-231230-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
248 PM AKST THU JAN 22 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY E OF
PORT MOLLER.
.FRI...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ170-231230-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
248 PM AKST THU JAN 22 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. FREEZING SPRAY E OF DUTCH
HARBOR.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY FROM DUTCH
HARBOR E.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ171-231230-
UNALASKA BAY-
248 PM AKST THU JAN 22 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ172-231230-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
248 PM AKST THU JAN 22 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ173-231230-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
248 PM AKST THU JAN 22 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ174-231230-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
248 PM AKST THU JAN 22 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ175-231230-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
248 PM AKST THU JAN 22 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ176-231230-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
248 PM AKST THU JAN 22 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ177-231230-
ADAK TO KISKA-
248 PM AKST THU JAN 22 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ178-231230-
KISKA TO ATTU-
248 PM AKST THU JAN 22 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ179-231230-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
248 PM AKST THU JAN 22 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ180-231230-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
248 PM AKST THU JAN 22 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ181-231230-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
248 PM AKST THU JAN 22 2015

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 30 KT.

$$

PKZ185-231230-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
248 PM AKST THU JAN 22 2015

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...N 20 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...N 15 KT W OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY E OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
326 PM AKST WED JAN 21 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE SHIFT IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS BEGINNING AS A TROUGH IN
THE ARCTIC IS STARTING TO DIG SOUTHWARD OVER NORTHWEST ALASKA.
THIS TROUGH WILL DISPLACE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MOST OF
MAINLAND ALASKA AND BERING SEA. THE JET STREAM IS REMAINING SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS IT RUN SOUTH OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT
IS SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. THE ARCTIC TROUGH WILL MERGE OVER THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW TOMORROW AND THEN BE SLOW TO CONTINUE MOVING
EASTWARD THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE THERE ARE TWO LOWS OF INTEREST. THE MAIN CENTER IS
SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA WITH A WEAKENING LOW IN THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF ALASKA. THE TROUGH BETWEEN THESE LOWS WILL
AMPLIFY OVER THE NEXT DAY AS IT TRACKS TO THE NORTHWEST.
THIS IS KEEPING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE BERING SEA AND
SOUTHWEST ALASKA AS IT PUSHES INTO THE RIDGE OVER INTERIOR AND
WESTERN ALASKA.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
AFTER MANY DAYS OF VERY DIFFERENT MODEL SOLUTIONS THEY HAVE
CONVERGED ON A COMMON SOLUTION...ONE THAT BRINGS A SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL TO MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. THERE ARE SOME SMALL BUT
IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS THAT WILL MAKE A LARGE IMPACT
AS TO WHERE THE MOST SNOW OCCURS IN THE COOK INLET AND SUSITNA
VALLEY REGIONS. THE MAIN ISSUE IS HOW FAR THE INITIAL BAROCLINIC
ZONE PUSHES TO THE WEST AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY.
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE PUSHING IT JUST TO THE WEST OF ANCHORAGE
INTO COOK INLET BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WHERE IT WILL BECOME A
DEFORMATION ZONE BEFORE MOVING BACK EASTWARD AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS
INTO MORE OF A PRINCE WILLIAM LOW TYPE EVENT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THE NAM 12Z AND 18Z RUNS ARE HOLDING THEIR GROUND BY NOT
PUSHING THE DEFORMATION ZONE AS FAR WESTWARD AND KEEPING IT OVER
THE ANCHORAGE AND MATANUSKA VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THE
FIRST SCENARIO WILL BRING MORE SNOWFALL TO THE WESTERN KENAI
PENINSULA AND SUSITNA VALLEY WHERE THE SECOND WILL BRING MORE TO
ANCHORAGE AND THE MATANUSKA VALLEY. THE FIRST SCENARIO WILL BRING
MORE SNOWFALL TO THE WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA AND SUSITNA VALLEY
WHERE THE SECOND WILL BRING MORE TO ANCHORAGE AND THE MATANUSKA
VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE CLEAR SKIES ARE ALREADY GIVING WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG
THE GULF COAST AND THESE CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INLAND OVERNIGHT. AS
DISCUSSED ABOVE IN THE MODEL DISCUSSION SECTION THERE WILL BE SNOW
MOVING INTO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS EVENT IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE BIGGEST SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON SO FAR FOR MOST
PLACES IN SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. WHILE THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL
OCCUR UNDER THE DEFORMATION ZONE THAT DEVELOPS NEAR COOK INLET THE
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY TRANSITION INTO A DYNAMIC CLOSER TO A PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND TYPE LOW. WHEN THIS HAPPENS IT WILL CAUSE THE KENAI
PENINSULA TO CLEAR OUT WITH A SHARP TRANSITION TO SNOW TOWARD
ANCHORAGE. THIS TYPE OF SITUATION USUALLY CAUSES THE SNOW TO
LINGER IN THE ANCHORAGE AND MATANUSKA VALLEY FAR AND ADDITIONAL 12
TO 24 HOURS WHICH IS WHY THE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY IN THOSE AREAS AND END OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA. THE
EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA WILL SEE SOME SNOW INITIALLY BUT COASTAL
AREAS WILL LIKELY MIX WITH OR TURN TO RAIN AS WARMER AIR OFF THE
GULF MAKES IT INTO THE AREA. THE VALDEZ AREA WILL LIKELY REMAIN
SNOWFALL WITH THOMPSON PASS SEEING SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN
BLOWING SNOW THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
COLD NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP THINGS DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN RANGES AND SKIES SHOULD STAY MOSTLY
CLEAR. THIS COLD FLOW WILL RESULT IN OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
LOWERING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE NIGHTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL LAST OVER THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS INTO
FRIDAY BRINGING COLDER TEMPERATURES WITH IT. THIS WILL BRING
SHOWERY PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA THAT WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO
ALL SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE BERING ON FRIDAY
AND SLOWLY TRACK EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. THEN ON SATURDAY A FRONT
WILL PUSH INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC
BRINGING BACK SOME WARMER AIR.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

THE SNOW EVENT ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY. SNOW INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG UPPER WAVE PASSES OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINLY ON THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM SINCE LONG RANGE MODELS DIFFER IN SOLUTIONS ON THE OUTCOMES
OF THIS STORM SYSTEM. IN GENERAL...A CLOSED LOW CENTER ALONG THE
EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA COAST LIFTS NORTH WITH THE BROAD TROUGH
REMAINING OVER ALASKA. THE MAIN WAVE PUSHES EAST TOWARD THE ALCAN
BORDER LATE SATURDAY. SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE
SUSITNA VALLEY AND KENAI MID DAY SATURDAY WITH SNOW CHANCES ACROSS
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE COPPER RIVER VALLEY LINGERING THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT DROPS
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS ON
SUNDAY MOVING ANOTHER FRONT ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN AND SOUTHERN
BERING THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEAK.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...SNOW ADVISORY 101 111 121 141 145.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 130 138 150 155 160 165 170 172 173 174 175
             176 177 178 179 180.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 140 160 180 181 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DK
LONG TERM...KH