Gale Warning 82, NWS Anchorage, AK

775 
FZAK51 PAFC 230013
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
313 PM AKST THU JAN 22 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-231330-
313 PM AKST THU JAN 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN GULF 
THROUGH FRI. A DEVELOPING PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO 220 NM SOUTH 
OF YAKUTAT FRI MORNING AT 984 MB THEN WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND
ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST FRI EVENING. A 992 MB LOW WILL 
FORM OVER WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND FRI AFTERNOON THEN REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SAT.

$$

PKZ119-231330-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
313 PM AKST THU JAN 22 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ120-231330-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
313 PM AKST THU JAN 22 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING S 20 KT. SEAS 12
FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ121-231330-
RESURRECTION BAY-
313 PM AKST THU JAN 22 2015

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW AND RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW
AND RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS
S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-231330-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
313 PM AKST THU JAN 22 2015

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3
FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-231330-
PORT VALDEZ-
313 PM AKST THU JAN 22 2015

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ127-231330-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
313 PM AKST THU JAN 22 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT TOWARDS MORNING.
SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-231330-
VALDEZ ARM-
313 PM AKST THU JAN 22 2015

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT TOWARDS MORNING.
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-231330-
PASSAGE CANAL-
313 PM AKST THU JAN 22 2015

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND
RAIN.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-231330-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
313 PM AKST THU JAN 22 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-231330-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
313 PM AKST THU JAN 22 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ132-231330-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
313 PM AKST THU JAN 22 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ136-231330-
CHINIAK BAY-
313 PM AKST THU JAN 22 2015

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN.
.FRI...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-231330-
MARMOT BAY-
313 PM AKST THU JAN 22 2015

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4
FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ138-231330-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
313 PM AKST THU JAN 22 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 10 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-231330-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
313 PM AKST THU JAN 22 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 8 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-231330-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
313 PM AKST THU JAN 22 2015

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-231330-
KACHEMAK BAY-
313 PM AKST THU JAN 22 2015

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
326 PM AKST WED JAN 21 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE SHIFT IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS BEGINNING AS A TROUGH IN
THE ARCTIC IS STARTING TO DIG SOUTHWARD OVER NORTHWEST ALASKA.
THIS TROUGH WILL DISPLACE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MOST OF
MAINLAND ALASKA AND BERING SEA. THE JET STREAM IS REMAINING SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS IT RUN SOUTH OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT
IS SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. THE ARCTIC TROUGH WILL MERGE OVER THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW TOMORROW AND THEN BE SLOW TO CONTINUE MOVING
EASTWARD THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE THERE ARE TWO LOWS OF INTEREST. THE MAIN CENTER IS
SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA WITH A WEAKENING LOW IN THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF ALASKA. THE TROUGH BETWEEN THESE LOWS WILL
AMPLIFY OVER THE NEXT DAY AS IT TRACKS TO THE NORTHWEST.
THIS IS KEEPING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE BERING SEA AND
SOUTHWEST ALASKA AS IT PUSHES INTO THE RIDGE OVER INTERIOR AND
WESTERN ALASKA.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
AFTER MANY DAYS OF VERY DIFFERENT MODEL SOLUTIONS THEY HAVE
CONVERGED ON A COMMON SOLUTION...ONE THAT BRINGS A SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL TO MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. THERE ARE SOME SMALL BUT
IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS THAT WILL MAKE A LARGE IMPACT
AS TO WHERE THE MOST SNOW OCCURS IN THE COOK INLET AND SUSITNA
VALLEY REGIONS. THE MAIN ISSUE IS HOW FAR THE INITIAL BAROCLINIC
ZONE PUSHES TO THE WEST AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY.
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE PUSHING IT JUST TO THE WEST OF ANCHORAGE
INTO COOK INLET BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WHERE IT WILL BECOME A
DEFORMATION ZONE BEFORE MOVING BACK EASTWARD AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS
INTO MORE OF A PRINCE WILLIAM LOW TYPE EVENT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THE NAM 12Z AND 18Z RUNS ARE HOLDING THEIR GROUND BY NOT
PUSHING THE DEFORMATION ZONE AS FAR WESTWARD AND KEEPING IT OVER
THE ANCHORAGE AND MATANUSKA VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THE
FIRST SCENARIO WILL BRING MORE SNOWFALL TO THE WESTERN KENAI
PENINSULA AND SUSITNA VALLEY WHERE THE SECOND WILL BRING MORE TO
ANCHORAGE AND THE MATANUSKA VALLEY. THE FIRST SCENARIO WILL BRING
MORE SNOWFALL TO THE WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA AND SUSITNA VALLEY
WHERE THE SECOND WILL BRING MORE TO ANCHORAGE AND THE MATANUSKA
VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE CLEAR SKIES ARE ALREADY GIVING WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG
THE GULF COAST AND THESE CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INLAND OVERNIGHT. AS
DISCUSSED ABOVE IN THE MODEL DISCUSSION SECTION THERE WILL BE SNOW
MOVING INTO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS EVENT IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE BIGGEST SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON SO FAR FOR MOST
PLACES IN SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. WHILE THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL
OCCUR UNDER THE DEFORMATION ZONE THAT DEVELOPS NEAR COOK INLET THE
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY TRANSITION INTO A DYNAMIC CLOSER TO A PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND TYPE LOW. WHEN THIS HAPPENS IT WILL CAUSE THE KENAI
PENINSULA TO CLEAR OUT WITH A SHARP TRANSITION TO SNOW TOWARD
ANCHORAGE. THIS TYPE OF SITUATION USUALLY CAUSES THE SNOW TO
LINGER IN THE ANCHORAGE AND MATANUSKA VALLEY FAR AND ADDITIONAL 12
TO 24 HOURS WHICH IS WHY THE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY IN THOSE AREAS AND END OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA. THE
EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA WILL SEE SOME SNOW INITIALLY BUT COASTAL
AREAS WILL LIKELY MIX WITH OR TURN TO RAIN AS WARMER AIR OFF THE
GULF MAKES IT INTO THE AREA. THE VALDEZ AREA WILL LIKELY REMAIN
SNOWFALL WITH THOMPSON PASS SEEING SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN
BLOWING SNOW THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
COLD NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP THINGS DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN RANGES AND SKIES SHOULD STAY MOSTLY
CLEAR. THIS COLD FLOW WILL RESULT IN OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
LOWERING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE NIGHTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL LAST OVER THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS INTO
FRIDAY BRINGING COLDER TEMPERATURES WITH IT. THIS WILL BRING
SHOWERY PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA THAT WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO
ALL SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE BERING ON FRIDAY
AND SLOWLY TRACK EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. THEN ON SATURDAY A FRONT
WILL PUSH INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC
BRINGING BACK SOME WARMER AIR.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

THE SNOW EVENT ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY. SNOW INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG UPPER WAVE PASSES OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINLY ON THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM SINCE LONG RANGE MODELS DIFFER IN SOLUTIONS ON THE OUTCOMES
OF THIS STORM SYSTEM. IN GENERAL...A CLOSED LOW CENTER ALONG THE
EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA COAST LIFTS NORTH WITH THE BROAD TROUGH
REMAINING OVER ALASKA. THE MAIN WAVE PUSHES EAST TOWARD THE ALCAN
BORDER LATE SATURDAY. SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE
SUSITNA VALLEY AND KENAI MID DAY SATURDAY WITH SNOW CHANCES ACROSS
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE COPPER RIVER VALLEY LINGERING THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT DROPS
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS ON
SUNDAY MOVING ANOTHER FRONT ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN AND SOUTHERN
BERING THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEAK.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...SNOW ADVISORY 101 111 121 141 145.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 130 138 150 155 160 165 170 172 173 174 175
             176 177 178 179 180.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 140 160 180 181 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DK
LONG TERM...KH