Gale Warning 822, NWS Anchorage, AK

902 
FZAK51 PAFC 300642 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
942 PM AKST SUN NOV 29 2015

UPDATED 121 125 126 129 141

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-301245-
942 PM AKST SUN NOV 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A FRONT ENTERS THE SOUTHERN GULF THIS EVENING...REACHES THE
CENTRAL GULF BY MON EVENING...THEN REACHES THE NORTHERN GULF 
COAST BY TUE MORNING.

$$

PKZ119-301245-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
942 PM AKST SUN NOV 29 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT EXCEPT E 15 KT NEAR THE COAST.  SEAS
8 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 30 KT.  SEAS
10 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ120-301245-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
942 PM AKST SUN NOV 29 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT  AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ121-301245-
RESURRECTION BAY-
942 PM AKST SUN NOV 29 2015

UPDATED

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.  SEAS
3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. RAIN. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-301245-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
942 PM AKST SUN NOV 29 2015

UPDATED

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-301245-
PORT VALDEZ-
942 PM AKST SUN NOV 29 2015

UPDATED

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-301245-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
942 PM AKST SUN NOV 29 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-301245-
VALDEZ ARM-
942 PM AKST SUN NOV 29 2015

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-301245-
PASSAGE CANAL-
942 PM AKST SUN NOV 29 2015

UPDATED

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
PATCHY FOG.
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-301245-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
942 PM AKST SUN NOV 29 2015

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS
6 FT.
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-301245-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
942 PM AKST SUN NOV 29 2015

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ132-301245-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
942 PM AKST SUN NOV 29 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT IN THE EVENING INCREASING TO 35 KT. 
SEAS 13 FT. RAIN. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ136-301245-
CHINIAK BAY-
942 PM AKST SUN NOV 29 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.  SEAS
3 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-301245-
MARMOT BAY-
942 PM AKST SUN NOV 29 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.  SEAS
4 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT  AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ138-301245-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
942 PM AKST SUN NOV 29 2015

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN. 
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-301245-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
942 PM AKST SUN NOV 29 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-301245-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
942 PM AKST SUN NOV 29 2015

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-301245-
KACHEMAK BAY-
942 PM AKST SUN NOV 29 2015

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
504 AM AKST SUN NOV 29 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE CURRENT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS VERY SIMILAR TO THAT OF
THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURES ARE A BROAD LONG
WAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE BERING...WITH A SHARP BLOCKING RIDGE
STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE DOWN TO THE WEST COAST OF
THE LOWER 48. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS BRINGING MAINLY RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHCENTRAL AND THE GULF COAST...WHILE A WEAKENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO BRING GUSTY GAP WINDS TO THE GULF
COAST. THIS GRADIENT IS ALSO BRINGING WEAK DOWNSLOPING TO THE LEE
SIDE OF THE CHUGACH RANGE...WHICH IS KEEPING MOST OF THE RAIN
SHOWERS AROUND SOUTHCENTRAL FROM REACHING THE GROUND FROM THE
ANCHORAGE BOWL EASTWARD INTO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. OVER THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS...A GALE FORCE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT IS
CENTERED UNDER THE LONGWAVE TROUGH...AND IS BEGINNING TO SPREAD
RAIN AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS INTO THE AKPEN. OVER THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS BRINGING PATCHY
FOG/STRATUS TO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY FOR THE INTERIOR KUSKOKWIM
DELTA AND BRISTOL BAY.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN EXCELLENT SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT WITH THE
TRACK/INTENSITY OF THE ALEUTIAN LOW INTO MID WEEK. AS THE RESULT
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS WERE USED AGAIN TONIGHT TO BETTER
CAPTURE GAP WINDS AND PRECIPITATION FROM THE FRONT MOVING INTO THE
GULF ON MONDAY. THERE REMAINS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT CROSS
BARRIER FLOW ALONG CHUGACH AND KENAI MOUNTAINS WILL KEEP MOST OF
THE RAINFALL CONFINED TO THE GULF COAST INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND SOUTH CENTRAL
MAINLAND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
WEAKEN AS IT DOES SO. PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO
COASTAL AND UP-SLOPE AREAS...WITH VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION
INLAND. THIS SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THE LEADING FRONT FROM THIS NEXT LOW WILL REACH KODIAK
ISLAND TONIGHT AND THE GULF COAST ON MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL THEN
BECOME MUCH MORE EAST-WEST ORIENTED AS THE RESPONSIBLE UPPER LOW
STALLS OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA LATER MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL AGAIN KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
CONFINED TO THE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH CONTINUED
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE SOUTHWEST IS UNDER ONSHORE FLOW...WITH LIGHT WINDS COMBINED
WITH MOISTURE IN THE REGION PRODUCING AREAS OF FOG WITH SOME
PLACES HAVING DENSE FOG AT TIMES THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY PRODUCING SHOWERY PRECIPITATION IN
THE SOUTHWEST AREA. BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW
TRACKS ALONG THE EASTERN CHAIN...THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE BRISTOL BAY REGION. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION TO BRISTOL BAY BEFORE SPREADING INLAND ACCOMPANIED
BY GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS HEADING INTO MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL HAVE A GALE FORCE LOW LOCATED WEST OF
DUTCH HARBOR THIS MORNING BEFORE THIS SYSTEM TRACKS TO THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING GALE FORCE WINDS TO
THE EASTERN BERING SEA BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. BY MONDAY THE BERING
WILL PREDOMINANTLY HAVE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WITH A SHOWERY
WEATHER REGIME.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

BEGINNING THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON TUESDAY MORNING...A BROAD UPPER
LOW CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN BERING AND NORTH PACIFIC WILL
ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE REGION AS THE NORTH PACIFIC JET REMAINS
CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF 40N. A SECONDARY LOW IN THE VICINITY
OF THE ALASKA PANHANDLE WILL ROTATE WEST INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF...SPREADING RAIN AND SNOW ALONG THE GULF OF ALASKA COAST.
INLAND LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATE EAST
TO SOUTHEAST FLOW...WITH THIS DOWNSLOPE SHADOW KEEPING
PRECIPITATION MAINLY CONFINED TO COASTAL AND MARINE LOCATIONS.
FARTHER WEST...THE BULK OF COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL BERING SEA...WITH EXTENSIVE INSTABILITY
SHOWERS AND STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS. WITH AN ARCTIC HIGH CENTERED
NORTH OF THE NORTH SLOPE OF ALASKA...COLDER SURFACE LEVEL AIR WILL
INFILTRATE SOUTHERN ALASKA...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE AND
COOL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL HEADING INTO THE LATE WEEK. ANOTHER NORTH
PACIFIC LOW WILL MERGE WITH THE ARCTIC TROUGH LATE
WEEK...DEEPENING INTO A DEEP LOW SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA. MUCH UNCERTAINTY ARISES BY THIS
POINT...BUT SOME GUIDANCE DRIVES IN A STRONG STORM FORCE LOW
THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BUT THERE
REMAINS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH TRACK AND POSITION TO REALLY GET
EXCITED AT THIS JUNCTURE. EITHER WAY...THE GENERAL PATTERN OF COLD
AIR OVER THE BERING AND STRONG EASTERLY LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW OVER
SOUTHERN ALASKA WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION LARGELY RELEGATED TO
COASTAL LOCALES...WITH NO DRAMATIC CHANGE IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER
INLAND. HEADING THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE NORTH PACIFIC JET STREAM
WILL MOVE EAST...WITH STORMINESS CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE
PANHANDLE OF ALASKA AS SOUTHERN ALASKA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF WEAKER LOWS DYING IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. IN OTHER WORDS...NO
SIGNIFICANT INLAND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE WARNING 130 131 132 150 155 160 170 172 173 174
					  175 176 180

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DEK
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PLD
LONG TERM...JA