Gale Warning 787, NWS Anchorage, AK

419 
FZAK52 PAFC 191858 AAA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
958 AM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-200415-
958 AM AKST THU NOV 19 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 972 MB LOW 250 NM WEST OF SAINT PAUL ISLAND WILL MOVE INTO
NORTON SOUND THU NIGHT AT 979 MB...THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
WHILE WEAKENING TO 988 MB FRI NIGHT. A 996 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW
575 NM SOUTH OF SHEMYA THU AFTERNOON WILL MOVE TO 25 NM SOUTHWEST
OF COLD BAY AT 985 MB FRI AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE TO THE WESTERN
GULF OF ALASKA FRI EVENING AT 983 MB.

$$

PKZ150-200415-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
958 AM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 15 FT BUILDING TO 21 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ155-200415-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
958 AM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 19 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT BUILDING TO 22 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.

$$

PKZ160-200415-
BRISTOL BAY-
958 AM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 45 KT BECOMING SW 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT. RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ165-200415-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
958 AM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ170-200415-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
958 AM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT BUILDING TO 28 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT BECOMING W 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
26 FT SUBSIDING TO 19 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.

$$

PKZ171-200415-
UNALASKA BAY-
958 AM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT
BUILDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ172-200415-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
958 AM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
19 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.

$$

PKZ173-200415-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
958 AM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 29 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
22 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.

$$

PKZ174-200415-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
958 AM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
20 FT SUBSIDING TO 13 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT.

$$

PKZ175-200415-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
958 AM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
29 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT.

$$

PKZ176-200415-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
958 AM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
23 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 26 FT.

$$

PKZ177-200415-
ADAK TO KISKA-
958 AM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
25 FT SUBSIDING TO 18 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 32 FT.

$$

PKZ178-200415-
KISKA TO ATTU-
958 AM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT BECOMING N 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
23 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 30 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 27 FT.

$$

PKZ179-200415-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
958 AM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
22 FT SUBSIDING TO 16 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT.

$$

PKZ180-200415-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
958 AM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N OF CAPE
NEWENHAM. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ181-200415-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
958 AM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ185-200415-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
958 AM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...S WIND 40 KT BECOMING W IN
THE AFTERNOON. W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...N WIND 50 KT. SEAS
23 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY W OF SAINT MATTHEW
ISLAND. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT BECOMING NW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
20 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT.

$$

516 
FZAK52 PAFC 200010
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
310 PM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-201300-
310 PM AKST THU NOV 19 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 973 MB LOW 50 NM NORTHWEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND WILL MOVE OVER THE
SEWARD PENINSULA AT 990 MB MIDDAY FRI...THEN DEGENERATE INTO A
TROUGH. A 991 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW 125 NM SOUTH OF ATKA LATE THU
NIGHT WILL MOVE TO NEAR CHIGNIK AT 986 MB FRI AFTERNOON...THEN
MOVE TO THE WESTERN GULF FRI EVENING. A 1012 MB LOW 175 NM WEST
OF ATTU MOVES TO 275 NM SOUTHWEST OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND AT 1011
MB SAT AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-201300-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
310 PM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 21 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT BUILDING TO 19 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 24 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.

$$

PKZ155-201300-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
310 PM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
19 FT SUBSIDING TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 45 KT. FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...S WIND 30 KT
BECOMING SW 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT BUILDING TO 22 FT
IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 22 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.MON...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ160-201300-
BRISTOL BAY-
310 PM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT TOWARDS MORNING.
SEAS 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT
SUBSIDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ165-201300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
310 PM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 22 FT SUBSIDING TO 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14
FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.

$$

PKZ170-201300-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
310 PM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
24 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13
FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.

$$

PKZ171-201300-
UNALASKA BAY-
310 PM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
GUSTS TO 45 KT IN THE EARLY EVENING. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO
40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN WITH SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ172-201300-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
310 PM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
18 FT SUBSIDING TO 11 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT
BUILDING TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ173-201300-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
310 PM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
21 FT SUBSIDING TO 14 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.

$$

PKZ174-201300-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
310 PM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 19
FT SUBSIDING TO 13 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ175-201300-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
310 PM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 20 KT TOWARDS MORNING. SEAS 16
FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 26 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 27 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ176-201300-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
310 PM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT SUBSIDING TO 11 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 27 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 26 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ177-201300-
ADAK TO KISKA-
310 PM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. AND RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 33 FT.
.MON...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ178-201300-
KISKA TO ATTU-
310 PM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN
SHOWERS.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 25 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 35 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ179-201300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
310 PM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 20
FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 28 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ180-201300-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
310 PM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY N
OF CAPE NEWENHAM.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ181-201300-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
310 PM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ185-201300-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
310 PM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...N 30 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
413 PM AKST WED NOV 18 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE
ALASKAN DOMAIN. CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY "OUTFLOW"
WINDS ALONG THE GULF COAST ARE GIVING WAY TO MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND WARMER AIR OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND SOUTHWEST
ALASKA...WITH SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA NEXT ON THE AGENDA. A SERIES OF
STORMS ARE LINED UP OVER THE BERING AND NORTHWEST PACIFIC...ALL
RIDING ALONG A RESURGENT 175+ KT JET COMING OFF EASTERN RUSSIA.
THE FIRST STORM IS THE WEAKEST...AND IS ESSENTIALLY A MODERATE
STRENGTH FRONT THAT MADE LANDFALL OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA LATE THIS
MORNING DROPPING SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. BLOWING SNOW ALONG THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST HAS DIMINISHED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES ALREADY WARMING TO NEAR FREEZING AT SOME LOCATIONS IN
ONSHORE FLOW. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THE
ALASKA RANGE INTO COOK INLET THIS EVENING.

A SECOND AND STRONGER LOW IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY MOVING
INTO THE FAR WESTERN BERING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED
FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WITH GALE-FORCE WINDS
AND RAIN. BECAUSE IT IS STRONGER THAN THE FIRST STORM...MORE WARM
AIR IS BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE CIRCULATION COMPARED TO THE FIRST
STORM. THIS WILL HOLD TRUE OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS THIS
SECOND STORM QUICKLY TRACKS TOWARD MAINLAND ALASKA.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THE MODELS ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FIRST STORM (TONIGHT)
BRINGING WIDESPREAD MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW TO SOUTHCENTRAL.
THERE HAS ALSO BEEN AN INCREASE IN AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF
THE SECOND STORM ON THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...FEATURING A
NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS SOUTHERN
ALASKA WITH A SURGE OF WARM AIR INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND ALSO UP
COOK INLET. HEAVY SNOW WILL FALL IN THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND ALSO
IN THE SUSITNA VALLEY...WHERE THE HEAVY SNOW WATCH HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO A HEAVY SNOW WARNING. THERE REMAIN MEANINGFUL
DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A THIRD LOW THAT WILL
RACE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY (SEE EXTENDED
DISCUSSION BELOW). FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE GFS WAS
PREFERRED AND USED FOR THE AFTERNOON FORECASTS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A MAJOR WEATHER CHANGE IS IN STORE FOR SOUTHCENTRAL AK AS A SERIES
OF WEATHER SYSTEMS BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE REGION. THE FIRST...IN
THE FORM OF A WEAK WEATHER FRONT...WILL SPREAD CLOUDS AND LIGHT
SNOW OVER MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A STRONGER FRONT WILL SPREAD
HEAVY SNOW OVER THE SUSITNA VALLEY THU INTO FRI AND OVER NORTHEAST
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. LESSER AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REST OF THE REGION. SIGNIFICANT WARMING
ALONG THE COAST AND AS FAR INLAND AS ANCHORAGE WILL CHANGE SNOW TO
RAIN LATER ON FRI AND FRI EVENING...WHILE INTERIOR ZONES REMAIN
COLD ENOUGH TO KEEP SNOW IN THE FORECAST. ON SAT PRECIPITATION
WILL REVERT TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHCENTRAL AS COLDER
AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

THE FIRST ROUND OF SNOW AND WIND HAS CLEARED THE COAST AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THE SECOND AND
STRONGER FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE COAST DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...ACCOMPANIED BY ADDITIONAL WARM AIR PULLED UP FROM THE
SOUTH. THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SECOND STORM WILL FALL
INITIALLY AS SNOW...BUT TRANSITION TO RAIN OVER BRISTOL BAY AND
COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE DELTA. THINKING AT THIS POINT IS THAT
ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TO RESULT IN ALL-SNOW OVER
THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY...WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW LIKELY
BUT PROBABLY STAYING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. THE OTHER SIGNIFICANT
COMPONENT OF THIS STORM WILL BE THE STRONG AND PROLONGED ONSHORE
WINDS THAT ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN SOME WATER "PILING UP" ALONG
THE COAST. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BOTH THE
BRISTOL BAY AND DELTA COASTLINES DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

COLDER AIR QUICKLY RETURNS FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER STORM MOVES UP FROM THE NORTH
PACIFIC AND SPREADS SNOW BACK INTO THE BRISTOL BAY AREA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A STRONG STORM FORCE LOW OVER THE WESTERN BERING WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONT
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON
TOMORROW. THE STRONGEST CORE OF STORM FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
IMPACTING THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS...AND WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN TO STRONG
GALES TO MIN STORM FORCE AS THEY TRACK TOWARD THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ALEUTIANS. ANOTHER GALE FORCE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR
SOUTHERN BERING AND CLIP THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW AND COLDER
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER...ALTHOUGH LESS THAN OPTIMAL...AGREEMENT
WITH THE LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA AND INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. BROADLY...THE 12Z
MODEL RUNS PLACE A SURFACE LOW FRIDAY NIGHT OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
ALASKA WITH THE 12Z GFS/NAM PLACING A LOWER 980S MB LOW OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST THAT MOVES INTO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH A
DEEPER LOW OVER THE BRISTOL BAY REGION THAT MOVES FURTHER INLAND
BEFORE CURVING EASTWARD INTO THE YUKON. THE 18Z RUN OF THE GFS IS
APPROXIMATELY THE SAME STRENGTH AND POSITION AS THE 12Z RUN...SO
ON DAY 3 THE GFS GUIDANCE IS PREFERRED. THUS...USING THE GFS
SOLUTION...SNOW IS EXPECTED ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND ON FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. IN THE
COOK INLET REGION...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EARLY FRIDAY
EVENING AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX BEFORE RAPIDLY TRANSITIONING TO ALL
SNOW AS THE LOW MOVES EASTWARD AND THE REGION FALLS INTO THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE
ANCHORAGE AREA...BUT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINLY IN THE TRACK OF THE
LOW...IT IS TOO EARLY TO DISCUSS POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE
COOK INLET REGION AT THIS TIME. AS THIS LOW MOVES INTO THE YUKON
TERRITORY ON SATURDAY...MOST OF SOUTHERN ALASKA WILL STAY IN A
COLD SHOWERY PATTERN AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE EASTERN BERING
SEA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

FURTHER WEST...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING A STRONG LOW
IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA NEAR THE COMMANDER ISLANDS LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST BERING SEA
BY TUESDAY WHILE ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT ARCS EASTWARD THROUGH THE
BERING SEA AND WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT SOUTHWEST ALASKA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL BRING AT LEAST GALE FORCE WINDS WITH
HIGH SEAS THROUGH MOST OF THE BERING AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD.
THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A DEEP SOUTHERLY CONNECTION TO THE
SUB-TROPICS.

FINALLY...AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE REMNANTS OF EX-
TYPHOON IN-FA WILL BEGIN TO ENTER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC OCEAN. AS
WITH MOST FORMER TROPICAL SYSTEMS...MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AND TRACK. DUE TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE DETAILS WITH THIS SYSTEM AT DAY 7...LITTLE DETAIL WAS INCLUDED
IN THE FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE.

THE GFS WAS USED FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON DAY 3 AS A
MIDDLE GROUND SOLUTION BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO WPC GUIDANCE FOR
DAYS 4-7.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 150 155 170 173 175 177 178 185.
 GALE WARNING 119 120 130 131 132 136 137 138 139 141 160 165 172
174 176 179 180.
 HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 127.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...AD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JA/AD
LONG TERM...RF