Winter Storm Warning 3, NWS Anchorage, AK

532 
WWAK41 PAFC 191355
WSWAER

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
455 AM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

AKZ145-200300-
/O.CON.PAFC.WS.W.0003.151119T1800Z-151120T1500Z/
SUSITNA VALLEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TALKEETNA...WILLOW...CANTWELL
455 AM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING
TO 6 AM AKST FRIDAY...

* LOCATION...THE SUSITNA VALLEY.

* SNOW...12 TO 20 INCHES.

* TIMING...SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN THIS MORNING...BECOME HEAVY AT
  TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AFTER
  MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL MAY BE DIFFICULT IN THE SUSITNA VALLEY ON 
  THURSDAY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR
HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR
OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL
MAKE TRAVEL VERY DIFFICULT. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU
MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR
VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

&&

$$

AKZ125-200300-
/O.EXB.PAFC.WW.Y.0024.151119T2000Z-151120T0600Z/
WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WHITTIER...SEWARD...GIRDWOOD...
MOOSE PASS
455 AM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLOWING SNOW IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM
THIS MORNING TO 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR PORTAGE VALLEY AND
ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM
THIS MORNING TO 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING.

* LOCATION...THROUGH PORTAGE VALLEY AND ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM.

* VISIBILITY...VISIBILITY REDUCED TO ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES IN
  SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

* WIND...EAST WINDS 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY
  TODAY...COINCIDENT WITH INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS. THIS WILL
  CREATE BLOWING SNOW CONDITIONS FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
  THIS EVENING. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO MIX WITH RAIN DURING THE
  EVENING HOURS...LEADING TO THE END OF THE BLOWING SNOW
  CONDITIONS.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BE DIFFICULT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE LIMITED
  IN FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$

AKZ131-200300-
/O.CON.PAFC.WW.Y.0024.151120T0300Z-151120T1500Z/
NORTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...VALDEZ...THOMPSON PASS
455 AM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS
EVENING TO 6 AM AKST FRIDAY...

* LOCATION...NORTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND INCLUDING VALDEZ AND 
  THOMPSON PASS 

* SNOW...12 TO 20 INCHES.

* TIMING...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES TONIGHT.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BE DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY THROUGH 
  THOMPSON PASS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$

716 
WWAK41 PAFC 191355 CCA
WSWAER

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
455 AM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

CORRECTED HEADLINES FOR 145 AND 131

AKZ145-200300-
/O.COR.PAFC.WS.W.0003.151119T1800Z-151120T1500Z/
SUSITNA VALLEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TALKEETNA...WILLOW...CANTWELL
455 AM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9
AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM AKST FRIDAY...

* LOCATION...THE SUSITNA VALLEY.

* SNOW...12 TO 20 INCHES.

* TIMING...SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN THIS MORNING...BECOME HEAVY AT
  TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AFTER
  MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL MAY BE DIFFICULT IN THE SUSITNA VALLEY ON 
  THURSDAY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR
HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR
OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL
MAKE TRAVEL VERY DIFFICULT. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU
MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR
VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

&&

$$

AKZ125-200300-
/O.EXB.PAFC.WW.Y.0024.151119T2000Z-151120T0600Z/
WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WHITTIER...SEWARD...GIRDWOOD...
MOOSE PASS
455 AM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLOWING SNOW IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM
THIS MORNING TO 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR PORTAGE VALLEY AND
ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM
THIS MORNING TO 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING.

* LOCATION...THROUGH PORTAGE VALLEY AND ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM.

* VISIBILITY...VISIBILITY REDUCED TO ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES IN
  SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

* WIND...EAST WINDS 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY
  TODAY...COINCIDENT WITH INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS. THIS WILL
  CREATE BLOWING SNOW CONDITIONS FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
  THIS EVENING. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO MIX WITH RAIN DURING THE
  EVENING HOURS...LEADING TO THE END OF THE BLOWING SNOW
  CONDITIONS.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BE DIFFICULT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE LIMITED
  IN FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$

AKZ131-200300-
/O.COR.PAFC.WW.Y.0024.151120T0300Z-151120T1500Z/
NORTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...VALDEZ...THOMPSON PASS
455 AM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM
THIS EVENING TO 6 AM AKST FRIDAY...

* LOCATION...NORTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND INCLUDING VALDEZ AND 
  THOMPSON PASS 

* SNOW...12 TO 20 INCHES.

* TIMING...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES TONIGHT.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BE DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY THROUGH 
  THOMPSON PASS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$

733 
WWAK41 PAFC 200125
WSWAER

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
425 PM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

AKZ145-201430-
/O.CON.PAFC.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-151120T1500Z/
SUSITNA VALLEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TALKEETNA...WILLOW...CANTWELL
425 PM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6
AM AKST FRIDAY...

* LOCATION...THE SUSITNA VALLEY.

* SNOW...12 TO 20 INCHES.

* TIMING...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH
  THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THEN GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGH THE
  EARLY MORNING HOURS.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL MAY BE DIFFICULT IN THE SUSITNA VALLEY ON 
  THURSDAY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR
HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR
OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL
MAKE TRAVEL VERY DIFFICULT. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU
MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR
VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

&&

$$

AKZ125-200600-
/O.CON.PAFC.WW.Y.0024.000000T0000Z-151120T0600Z/
WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WHITTIER...SEWARD...GIRDWOOD...
MOOSE PASS
425 PM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLOWING SNOW REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR PORTAGE VALLEY AND ALONG
TURNAGAIN ARM...

* LOCATION...THROUGH PORTAGE VALLEY AND ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM.

* VISIBILITY...VISIBILITY REDUCED TO ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES IN 
  SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. 

* WIND...EAST WINDS 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

* TIMING...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG EAST WINDS WILL
  CONTINUE TO CREATE BLOWING SNOW CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE
  AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO MIX WITH RAIN
  DURING THE EVENING HOURS...LEADING TO THE END OF THE BLOWING
  SNOW CONDITIONS.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BE DIFFICULT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE 
  LIMITED IN FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$

AKZ131-201430-
/O.CON.PAFC.WW.Y.0024.151120T0300Z-151120T1500Z/
NORTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...VALDEZ...THOMPSON PASS
425 PM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM
AKST FRIDAY...

* LOCATION...NORTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND INCLUDING VALDEZ AND 
  THOMPSON PASS 

* SNOW...12 TO 20 INCHES.

* TIMING...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES TONIGHT THEN DIMINISHING IN THE
  MORNING.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BE DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY THROUGH 
  THOMPSON PASS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$

319 
WWAK41 PAFC 200557
WSWAER

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
857 PM AKST THU NOV 19 2015


AKZ125-200700-
/O.EXP.PAFC.WW.Y.0024.000000T0000Z-151120T0600Z/
WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WHITTIER...SEWARD...GIRDWOOD...
MOOSE PASS
857 PM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLOWING SNOW HAS EXPIRED...

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLOWING SNOW HAS EXPIRED.

$$

AKZ145-201500-
/O.CON.PAFC.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-151120T1500Z/
SUSITNA VALLEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TALKEETNA...WILLOW...CANTWELL
857 PM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6
AM AKST FRIDAY...

* LOCATION...THE SUSITNA VALLEY.

* SNOW...12 TO 20 INCHES.

* TIMING...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH 
  THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THEN GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGH THE 
  EARLY MORNING HOURS. 

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL MAY BE DIFFICULT IN THE SUSITNA VALLEY ON 
  THURSDAY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR
HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR
OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL
MAKE TRAVEL VERY DIFFICULT. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU
MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR
VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

&&

$$

AKZ131-201500-
/O.CON.PAFC.WW.Y.0024.000000T0000Z-151120T1500Z/
NORTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...VALDEZ...THOMPSON PASS
857 PM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HEAVY SNOW REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
6 AM AKST FRIDAY...

* LOCATION...NORTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND INCLUDING VALDEZ AND 
  THOMPSON PASS 

* SNOW...12 TO 20 INCHES.

* TIMING...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES TONIGHT THEN DIMINISHING IN THE 
  MORNING. 

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BE DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY THROUGH 
  THOMPSON PASS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$

302 
WWAK41 PAFC 201400
WSWAER

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKST FRI NOV 20 2015

AKZ145-201500-
/O.CAN.PAFC.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-151120T1500Z/
SUSITNA VALLEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TALKEETNA...WILLOW...CANTWELL
500 AM AKST FRI NOV 20 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS CANCELLED THE
WINTER STORM WARNING. 

THE HEAVY SNOW HAS ENDED...HOWEVER SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING...MAINLY FROM TALKEETNA
NORTHWARD.

$$

AKZ131-201500-
/O.CAN.PAFC.WW.Y.0024.000000T0000Z-151120T1500Z/
NORTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...VALDEZ...THOMPSON PASS
500 AM AKST FRI NOV 20 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HEAVY SNOW IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS CANCELLED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. 

THE HEAVY SNOW HAS ENDED...HOWEVER SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING.


$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
516 AM AKST WED NOV 18 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE PATTERN IS PROGRESSIVE WITH TWO MAIN LOWS MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. THE LEADING LOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN BERING WITH
ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVING IN OVER THE SOUTHWEST WHERE IT IS
BRINGING SNOW TO THE AREA. A SECOND MORE INTENSE LOW IS OVER THE
WESTERN BERING WITH ITS FRONT MOVING IN OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.
BOTH SYSTEMS ARE BRINGING IN WARMER AIR WITH THE SECOND WARM
ENOUGH TO TRANSITION THE PRECIPITATION OVER TO RAIN. AHEAD OF THE
FRONTS OUT OVER MAINLAND ALASKA AN ARCTIC AIR MASS SITS DROPPING
TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO BEFORE THE WARMER AIR MOVES IN.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MID RANGE WITH
PLACEMENT OF THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES. THE PROBLEMS COME WITH
DIFFERENCES IN PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR THE DEEPER SYSTEM THAT MOVES
IN THURSDAY. THE GFS AND GEM HAVE WARMER SOLUTIONS BRINGING RAIN
AS FAR INLAND AS THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY WHILE THE NAM KEEPS
THE AREA MORE SNOW WITH THE EC IN THE MIDDLE. THESE DIFFERENCES
RESULT IN LOWER CONFIDENCE AS TO IF OR WHEN SNOW WILL BECOME MIXED
WITH RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

OUTFLOW CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GULF WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH THIS MORNING AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS BEGIN AS THE
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WEAKENS. A WEATHER FRONT MOVING
ACROSS SW ALASKA WILL BRING SNOW TO MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL BEGINNING
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SW KENAI PEN THEN SPREAD NORTH AND EAST
TONIGHT. SNOW WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH THU MORNING AFTER UPPER
TROUGH PASSAGE...THOUGH SW FLOW IN THE 850-500 MB LAYER WILL
CONTINUE SOME UPSLOPE SNOW ALONG THE CHUGACH AND TALKEETNA
MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING. THIS FIRST ROUND OF SNOW SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW INCREASES
SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL THU AFTERNOON THROUGH THU NIGHT
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT FRONT FROM THE WEST. FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SUSITNA VALLEY DURING THAT
TIME FRAME. SNOW WILL LIKELY TO BE FAIRLY HEAVY ALSO ALONG THE
EASTERN KENAI (BY THU AFTERNOON) AND VALDEZ THU NIGHT. TEMPS WARM
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT THU AFTERNOON/THU NIGHT AND WILL
BRING SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES ACROSS THE COOK INLET
REGION...ANCHORAGE BOWL(THU NIGHT)...AND NORTH GULF COAST. PERIODS
OF BLOWING SNOW MAY DROP VISIBILITIES BECOME ONE HALF MILE AT
TIMES THROUGH PORTAGE VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THIS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED AS TEMPS WILL WARM UP RATHER QUICKLY
TO ABOVE FREEZING AND EVEN MIX WITH RAIN BY THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

GALE TO STORM FORCE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS ON THU ALONG WITH STRONG GAP FLOWS
ACROSS TURNAGAIN ARM/PORTAGE VALLEY AND TO A LESSER EXPECTED
ACROSS THE MATANUSKA VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A VERY ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OVER THE REGION WILL USHER
IN A SERIES OF STRONG SYSTEMS TRACKING INTO THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE FIRST SYSTEM IN THIS SERIES IS A
FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING LOW IN THE NORTHERN
BERING THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SNOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR TODAY...BEFORE BRIEFLY DIMINISHING
AS THE FRONT TRACKS FURTHER EASTWARD OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM COAST FROM KIPNUK NORTH...EASTERLY
WINDS AND HEAVIER SNOWFALL THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL RESULT IN RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS CAUSED BY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...DROPPING
VISIBILITIES TO A HALF MILE AT TIMES WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES EAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP CHANGE SOME
COASTAL AREAS OVER TO RAIN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS WARMER
MARINE AIR MOVES IN. A MUCH STRONGER FRONT MOVES IN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY...SPREADING RAIN INTO MOST OF BRISTOL BAY AND
THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA...WITH SNOW MIXING IN ACROSS THE LOWER
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS SECOND FRONT WILL
COINCIDE WITH A HIGH TIDE CYCLE...WITH THE THREAT FOR SOME MINOR
COASTAL EROSION FROM THE NORTHERN BRISTOL BAY COAST TO THE
KUSKOKWIM BAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A WEAKENING LOW OVER THE NORTHERN BERING WILL TRACK INLAND AND
DISSIPATE OVER THE NORTHERN KUSKOKWIM DELTA THIS MORNING. A MUCH
STRONGER STORM FORCE LOW TRACKS OVER THE WESTERN BERING THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE ASSOCIATED LEADING FRONT TRACKING THROUGH THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL BERING/ALEUTIANS DURING THE DAY TODAY. COLDER
AIR WILL BEGIN WRAPPING INTO THIS SYSTEM ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE LOW...HELPING TO MIX DOWN SOME STRONGER GUSTS OVER THE
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN FLANK OF THE LOW. THE STRONGEST CORE OF STORM
FORCE WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
BERING/ALEUTIANS...ALTHOUGH STRONG SOUTHERLY GALES WILL CROSS INTO
THE EASTERN BERING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. A SWATCH OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN WILL IMPACT MOST LOCATIONS AS THIS FRONT MOVES EAST
ALONG THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
ENTERING INTO THE MID-TERM...THE PATTERN OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC
BECOMES VERY PROGRESSIVE WITH MULTIPLE ROBUST LOWS MOVING THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA.

AT THE START OF THE MID-TERM ON THURSDAY EVENING...THE FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW NEAR ST LAWRENCE ISLAND WILL BE PUSHING
INLAND OVER SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA AND RAPIDLY MOVING INTO INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
SYNOPTICALLY...MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM. MOSTLY SNOW IS
EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WITH A RAIN SNOW MIX ALONG
THE BRISTOL BAY COAST. OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...PRECIPITATION
SHOULD REMAIN AS ALL SNOW OVER MOST OF THE INTERIOR AREAS WITH A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG COASTAL AREAS. SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
SUSITNA VALLEY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF
FRIDAY EVENING. FOR THE ANCHORAGE BOWL...MODEL GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING STRONG WINDS ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF DOWNSLOPING OF PRECIPITATION INTO
THE ANCHORAGE AREA. WITH THAT BEING SAID...ANCHORAGE SHOULD STILL
SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW. THE HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS WITH THIS SYSTEM
ARE EXPECTED IN THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.

BEHIND THIS LOW...THE NEXT SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION
WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC SOUTH OF THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS ON FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE HAVING A VERY
DIFFICULT TIME RESOLVING THIS FEATURE IN BOTH STRENGTH AND
LOCATION. THE 12Z GFS AND GEM RUNS DEVELOPED A 965MB LOW OVER THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS THAT MOVES RAPIDLY EASTWARD INTO MAINLAND
ALASKA. THE 12Z NAM AND EC DEVELOPED A WEAKER 990 MB LOW SOUTH OF
THE ALASKA PENINSULA THAT WOULD DEEPEN TO 980MB OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF BY SATURDAY NIGHT. 18Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND NAM HAVE
NOW SWUNG FROM THOSE SOLUTIONS AS WELL WITH THE NAM PLACING A
975MB LOW IN THE BERING AND THE GFS TRENDING MORE TOWARDS THE EC.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS CREATES LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST AT
THIS POINT. AFTER COORDINATION WITH WPC...DECIDED TO NUDGE TO THE
EC SOLUTION WITH SOME GFS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA ON DAY 3.

WHILE THE MODELS ARE HAVING A GREAT DEAL OF DIFFICULTY WITH THE
FRIDAY SYSTEM...THEY ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON BRINGING A
970-975MB LOW INTO THE WESTERN BERING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. WPC GUIDANCE CAPTURED THIS FEATURE WELL...THUS WAS USED
HEAVILY FOR DAYS 4-7.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...155.
         WINTER STORM WATCH...145.
         HIGH SURF ADVISORY...155 161.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...121 127-130 139 181
         STORM WARNING...150 155 170 173-175 177 178 185
         GALE WARNING...120 130-132 136-139 141 160 165 171
                        172 176179-181

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DK
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...RMC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TP
LONG TERM...RF/MMC