Gale Warning 709, NWS Anchorage, AK

628 
FZAK62 PAFC 131203
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
303 AM AKST FRI NOV 13 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-140215-
303 AM AKST FRI NOV 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 1005 MB LOW NEAR 61N 173E STRENGTHENS TO 992 MB NEAR 62N 179W
FRI NIGHT...THEN MOVES TO 57N 172W WHILE STRENGTHENING TO 991 MB
SAT NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-140215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
303 AM AKST FRI NOV 13 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY N OF 56N AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT.

$$

PKZ412-140215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
303 AM AKST FRI NOV 13 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT INCREASING TO 25 TO 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. SNOW.
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 18 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 18 FT.

$$

PKZ413-140215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
303 AM AKST FRI NOV 13 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT...W WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.

$$

PKZ414-140215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
303 AM AKST FRI NOV 13 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. SNOW. FREEZING
SPRAY N OF 57N IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.

$$

094 
FZAK62 PAFC 140059
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
359 PM AKST FRI NOV 13 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-141445-
359 PM AKST FRI NOV 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 1000 MB LOW NEAR 61N 180 STRENGTHENS TO 990 MB AND MOVES TO 56N
166W SUN AFTERNOON. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN
BERING THIS EVENING...THEN DISSIPATES OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND
SAT EVENING.

$$

PKZ411-141445-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
359 PM AKST FRI NOV 13 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 11 TO 18 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.

$$

PKZ412-141445-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
359 PM AKST FRI NOV 13 2015

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT INCREASING TO 25 TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 18 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...N WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ413-141445-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
359 PM AKST FRI NOV 13 2015

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT...W WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 TO 40 KT BECOMING NW 35 TO 50 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 16 TO 24 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ414-141445-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
359 PM AKST FRI NOV 13 2015

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
512 AM AKST THU NOV 12 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT RAVAGED THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
AND ALASKA PENINSULA WITH HIGH WINDS YESTERDAY IS SITUATED THIS
MORNING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. THE EXPANSIVE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH OR EVEN SLIGHTLY STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST GULF THIS MORNING...BUT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN
LATER TODAY. THE STORM-FORCE FRONT THAT MOVED TO THE NORTH GULF
COAST OVERNIGHT HAS WEAKENED AND IS NOW PRODUCING GALES...WITH THE
ONLY STORM-FORCE WINDS CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHERN GULF. TO THE
IMMEDIATE WEST OF THE LOW...A WEAK AND SUBTLE TRANSITORY RIDGE
MOVES EAST OVER BRISTOL BAY TOWARD THE WESTERN GULF. BEHIND THIS
FEATURE RESIDES A SHARP NEGATIVE-TILTED TROUGH AXIS OVER THE
NORTHERN TO SOUTHEASTERN BERING. JUST AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...A
LARGE DEFORMATION ZONE EXISTS AND IS BRINGING SNOW AND RAIN MAINLY
TO MARINE AREAS BETWEEN SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE PRIBILOFS AS WELL
AS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA. MEANWHILE...ALONG
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS FEATURE...A VERY ACTIVE NORTHWESTERLY JET
STREAM IS PUSHING NUMEROUS STRONG DISTURBANCES SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE BERING AND ACROSS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA
PENINSULA...WITH RAIN AND SNOW SQUALLS AHEAD OF EACH DISTURBANCES
AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND EACH DISTURBANCE
IN STRONG COLD AND NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT. A FEATURE TO NOTE WITH THE
MODELS IS A 45-KNOT 500-MB JET STREAK MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER
INTERIOR SOUTHCENTRAL LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A DECENT TROPOPAUSE FOLD ON THE JET'S NORTH SIDE
OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...AND SHOULD INITIATE DECENT DOWNWARD
MOMENTUM TOWARD THE MOUNTAINTOPS AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES BY...NORTHERLY
OFFSHORE/OUTFLOW WINDS SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE VALLEYS AND
TERRAIN GAPS OF SOUTHCENTRAL...THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS
TO HOW SIGNIFICANT THOSE WINDS WILL BE.

MEANWHILE...OUT OVER THE BERING...STRONG NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO USHER NUMEROUS DISTURBANCES SOUTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS AGREE THAT A STRONGER UPPER LOW WILL
DROP SOUTH AND EAST OUT OF SIBERIA INTO THE BERING...AND WILL
COMBINE WITH JET ENERGY MOVING WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS THE BERING
TO KEEP THE REGION IN A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A DEEP LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF IS TRACKING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
GULF. THERE IS STILL SOME RAIN AND SNOW FALLING FROM THE PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND AREA TO KODIAK ISLAND EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THIS
WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS FLOW SHIFTS
TO THE NORTH AND COLDER DRIER AIR BEGINS TO ADVECT SOUTHWARD. GAP
WINDS ALONG PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE GULF COAST HAVE ALREADY
BEGUN TO BLOW DUE TO THE VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS SURROUNDING
THE GULF LOW. WINDS WILL BECOME MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AS A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL SHORT-WAVES DROP THROUGH THE AREA ADVECTING DEEP ARCTIC AIR
FROM INTERIOR ALASKA AND FROM THE NORTHERN BERING SEA. ALSO OF
NOTE IS A FAIRLY WEAK 500 MB JET STREAK (APPROX 40 KTS) WHICH WILL
TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE CHUGACH MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. THIS WILL
ENHANCE DOWNWARD MOTIONS IN THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND REGION
AND PRODUCE A SPIKE UP IN THE STRENGTH OF THE GAP WINDS.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIE DOWN OVER INTERIOR SOUTHCENTRAL FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF
THE YEAR AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE...LOCALIZED GAP WINDS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE NORTH GULF
COAST KEEPING TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT MILDER THAN INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
AS THE MAIN LOW HAS PUSHED OFF INTO THE GULF NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP COLD AIR
ADVECTION OVER THE AREA THAT WILL HELP TO MIX DOWN SOME OF THE
GUSTIER WINDS. IT WILL ALSO BE RELATIVELY DRY FLOW WITH ONLY SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST WHERE MORE NUMEROUS
SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE INTO THE WEEKEND FOR THE BERING AND
ALEUTIANS. THIS WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS PRESENT THROUGHOUT THE
BERING WHILE THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL MIX WITH RAIN IN THE WARMER
TIMES OF THE DAY ALONG THE ALEUTIANS. THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS WILL BE
OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND INTO THE ALASKA PENINSULA AS THERE
IS MORE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH SHORTWAVES MOVING SOUTH THROUGH
THE EASTERN BERING. ON FRIDAY A SEPARATE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BERING THAT WILL ALSO BRING SOME
STRONGER SHOWERS WITH IT.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE STORM FORCE LOW AS
IT FILLS AND BECOMES ALMOST STATIONARY NEAR YAKUTAT IN THE
NORTHERN GULF THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PHASE WITH A
SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE WESTERN
GULF BY SUNDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COASTAL MARINE AREAS WITH SOME MOISTURE
MAKING IT INTO THE INTERIOR. THE BIGGEST CHANGE HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL BE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND
THE COPPER RIVER BASIN THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW ZERO DEGREES IN MAJORITY OF THE
SOUTHCENTRAL REGION DUE TO THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THE
NORTHERLY WINDS. LOOK FOR THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES IN THE MAT-SU
VALLEYS AND THE COPPER RIVER BASIN.

FURTHER WEST...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM SETTING UP OVER THE NORTHERN BERING SEA FROM THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA ON SATURDAY. THE GFS TRACKS THIS LOW JUST EAST OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND SATURDAY MORNING...WHERE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND
TRACKS IT JUST WEST OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND SATURDAY MORNING. THE
MODELS THEN TRACK THIS SYSTEM OVER THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS ON
SUNDAY...WITH THE ECMWF SPEEDING AHEAD OF THE GFS BY ROUGHLY SIX
HOURS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE
SYSTEM...DUE TO THE CONTINUED MODEL DISCREPANCIES BEFORE MOVING
INTO THE GULF BY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS
HIGH IN THIS SYNOPTIC FEATURE PULLING DOWN MORE COLD AIR FROM THE
NORTH AND RESULTING IN A CONTINUED SHOWERY REGIME OVER THE AREA.
BY MONDAY EVENING ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL DROP OFF THE
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA BEFORE ENTERING THE WESTERN BERING SEA. THIS
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD RAIN IN THE LOWER BERING SEA
BEFORE TRANSITIONING ALL SNOW AS IT TRACKS TO THE NORTHERN BERING
BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 119 120 121 127 129 130 131 132 136 137 138 139 150
         155 165 170 172 174 175 177 178 180.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING 185

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DK
LONG TERM...TP