Alert archive / Alaska / Gale Warnings in 2015
Gale Warning 700, NWS Anchorage, AK
NWS Anchorage, AK issued this gale warning at Nov 6, 2015, 3:07 AM AKST. It was in force for 36 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Nov 6, 2015, 3:07 AM AKST (12:07 UTC)
- Expired
- Nov 7, 2015, 3:36 PM AKST
- In force
- 36 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Anchorage, AK
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
403 FZAK62 PAFC 061207 OFFALU OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK 307 AM AKST FRI NOV 6 2015 OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. PKZ499-070215- 307 AM AKST FRI NOV 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA... A 997 MB LOW NEAR 59N 170E MOVES TO 60N 172E FRI AFTERNOON AT 999 MB AND DISSIPATES. A 1003 MB LOW DEVELOPS NEAR 56N 165E FRI AFTERNOON AND MOVES TO 62N 178W AT 966 MB EARLY SUN. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT ENTERS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS EARLY SAT AND MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH SUN. $$ PKZ411-070215- BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL DATELINE- 307 AM AKST FRI NOV 6 2015 ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY... .TODAY...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. RAIN. .TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT INCREASING TO 25 TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT S OF 56N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT. RAIN. .SAT...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. .SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 14 TO 20 FT. .SUN THROUGH MON...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT. .TUE...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. $$ PKZ412-070215- BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N- 307 AM AKST FRI NOV 6 2015 ...GALE WARNING SATURDAY... .TODAY...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. RAIN. .TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. RAIN. .SAT...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT. RAIN. .SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 TO 24 FT. .SUN THROUGH MON...NW WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 TO 28 FT. .TUE...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. $$ PKZ413-070215- BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N- 307 AM AKST FRI NOV 6 2015 ...GALE WARNING SATURDAY... .TODAY...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN. .TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. .SAT...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT. RAIN. .SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 18 FT. .SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 17 TO 22 FT. .TUE...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT. $$ PKZ414-070215- BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W- 307 AM AKST FRI NOV 6 2015 ...GALE WARNING TODAY... .TODAY...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT. RAIN. .TONIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. RAIN. .SAT...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. RAIN. .SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT. .SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 TO 26 FT. .TUE...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT. $$
3 follow-up statements
756 FZAK62 PAFC 070010 OFFALU OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK 310 PM AKST FRI NOV 6 2015 OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. PKZ499-071445- 310 PM AKST FRI NOV 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA... A 996 MB LOW AT 59N 171E MOVES TO 61N 171W AS A 1002 MB LOW FRI NIGHT AND DISSIPATES SAT MORNING. A 989 MB LOW NEAR 58N 171E SAT MORNING MOVES TO 64N 171W AND STRENGTHENS TO 959 MB SAT AFTERNOON WITH A FRONT STRETCHING BACK TO KAMCHATKA. A 1008 MB LOW AROUND 46N 171E SAT MORNING MOVES TO 54N 178W AND DISSIPATES SAT EVENING. $$ PKZ411-071445- BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL DATELINE- 310 PM AKST FRI NOV 6 2015 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT. RAIN. .SAT...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. .SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. .SUN...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT. .SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 15 FT. .MON THROUGH WED...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. $$ PKZ412-071445- BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N- 310 PM AKST FRI NOV 6 2015 ...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. .SAT...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT. RAIN. .SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT BECOMING W 30 TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. .SUN...W WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 TO 25 FT. .SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 TO 22 FT. .MON...NW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 18 FT. .TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. $$ PKZ413-071445- BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N- 310 PM AKST FRI NOV 6 2015 ...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. .SAT...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT. RAIN. .SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT INCREASING TO 35 TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT. RAIN. .SUN...W WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 18 TO 27 FT. .SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 22 FT. .MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 TO 18 FT. .TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT. $$ PKZ414-071445- BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W- 310 PM AKST FRI NOV 6 2015 ...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. .SAT...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. .SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. .SUN...W WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 17 TO 27 FT. .SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 19 TO 25 FT. .MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 19 FT. .TUE...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. .WED...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. $$
318 FZAK62 PAFC 071240 OFFALU OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK 340 AM AKST SAT NOV 7 2015 OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. PKZ499-080245- 340 AM AKST SAT NOV 7 2015 .SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA... A 992 MB LOW AT 57N 168E MOVES TO 58N 172W AS A 985 MB LOW SAT AFTERNOON. THIS LOW IS ABSORBED INTO A 988 MB LOW THAT DEVELOPS NEAR 60N 177W SAT EVENING...THEN MOVES TO 63N 171W AT 960 MB SUN AFTERNOON AND REMAINS THROUGH MON. $$ PKZ411-080245- BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL DATELINE- 340 AM AKST SAT NOV 7 2015 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY... .TODAY...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT. RAIN. .TONIGHT...W WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. .SUN...W WIND 30 TO 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT. AND RAIN SHOWERS. .SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 18 FT. .MON THROUGH WED...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT. $$ PKZ412-080245- BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N- 340 AM AKST SAT NOV 7 2015 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY... .TODAY...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT. RAIN. .TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT BECOMING W 30 TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT. RAIN. .SUN...W WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 15 TO 27 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. .SUN NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 TO 26 FT. .MON...NW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT. .TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. $$ PKZ413-080245- BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N- 340 AM AKST SAT NOV 7 2015 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY... .TODAY...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT. RAIN. .TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT BECOMING W 35 TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15 TO 22 FT. RAIN. .SUN...W WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 20 TO 27 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. .SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 17 TO 25 FT. .MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 TO 20 FT. .TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT. $$ PKZ414-080245- BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W- 340 AM AKST SAT NOV 7 2015 ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY... .TODAY...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN. .TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT. RAIN. .SUN...SW WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 17 TO 27 FT. RAIN. .SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 21 TO 27 FT. .MON...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 TO 22 FT. .TUE...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT. .WED...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT. $$
151 FZAK62 PAFC 080036 OFFALU OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK 336 PM AKST SAT NOV 7 2015 OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. PKZ499-081430- 336 PM AKST SAT NOV 7 2015 .SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...A 988 MB LOW AT 58N 170E STRENGTHENS TO 976 MB AND MOVES TO 61N 177W SAT EVENING. SUNDAY MORNING THE LOW STRENGTHENS TO 955 MB AND MOVES TO 63N 175W...THEN MOVES TO 64N 166W AT 963 MB MON AFTERNOON. $$ PKZ411-081430- BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL DATELINE- 336 PM AKST SAT NOV 7 2015 ...STORM WARNING TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...W WIND INCREASING TO 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 14 TO 25 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS. .SUN...W WIND 30 TO 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 TO 24 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS. .SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 20 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. .MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 TO 19 FT. .MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. .TUE THROUGH THU...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. $$ PKZ412-081430- BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N- 336 PM AKST SAT NOV 7 2015 ...STORM WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY... .TONIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT INCREASING TO TO 35 TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILDING TO 14 TO 22 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. .SUN...W WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 17 TO 28 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. .SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 21 TO 29 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. .MON...W WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 19 TO 25 FT. .MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 21 FT. .TUE THROUGH THU...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. $$ PKZ413-081430- BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N- 336 PM AKST SAT NOV 7 2015 ...STORM WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY... .TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT BECOMING W 35 TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILDING TO 16 TO 23 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. .SUN...W WIND 40 TO 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 21 TO 28 FT. RAIN SHOWERS WITH SNOW. .SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 17 TO 26 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS. .MON...W WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 TO 22 FT. .MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 20 FT. .TUE THROUGH THU...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT. $$ PKZ414-081430- BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W- 336 PM AKST SAT NOV 7 2015 ...STORM WARNING SUNDAY... .TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 10 TO 18 FT. RAIN. .SUN...SW WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 16 TO 27 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. .SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 23 TO 28 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. .MON...W WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 20 TO 25 FT. .MON NIGHT...W WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. .TUE...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT. .WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT. $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this gale warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Nov 5, 4:51 PM AKST, 10 hours 16 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Nov 5, 4:51 PM AKST, 10 hours 16 minutes before
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
451 PM AKST THU NOV 5 2015
.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN BERING
CONTINUES TO BE THE FOCAL POINT FOR WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE REGION.
AN ASSOCIATED STORM FORCE FRONT IS PRESSING NORTHWARD UP THE KENAI
PENINSULA ON ITS WAY TO THE NORTH GULF COAST WHERE PRESSURE RISES
AHEAD OF THE FRONT CONTINUE TO BRING GUSTY GAP WINDS TO PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND AND TURNAGAIN ARM. THIS FRONT IS ALSO BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE GULF COAST...WHICH
BECOMES WET SNOW ABOVE ABOUT 1500 FT. ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
CHUGACH RANGE...DOWNSLOPING IS PREVENTING MOST OF THE RAIN/SNOW
FROM REACHING THE GROUND IN THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND MATANUSKA
VALLEY. THIS DOWNSLOPING THEN RAPIDLY ENDS AS YOU REACH THE
SUSITNA VALLEY ALLOWING FOR WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATION
SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE PARKS HIGHWAY WHERE A SNOW
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.
OVER THE BERING SEA...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE ROTATING AROUND
THE WEAKENING LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...WHILE BROAD
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS ARE SPREADING
THROUGH THE BERING BEHIND THE LOW.
&&
.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM AS THE BROAD
LOW OVER THE BERING CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND MOVES INTO THE GULF.
THERE ARE THEN SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES THAT ARISE ON SATURDAY AS
THE LOW MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF...BUT THIS IS LARGELY OUT OF
OUR AOR AND WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS ON OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE
THIS WEEKEND. AS A RESULT THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM AND GEM
REGIONAL WERE PRIMARILY USED IN THE EARLY TERM.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE LARGE BERING LOW WILL BE CROSSING OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA
THIS EVENING....MOVING SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND AND INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF BY TOMORROW EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT IS
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...BRINGING STRONG WINDS
AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO COASTAL AREAS AS WELL AS GAP AREAS
ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM. HEAVY SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF IN THE
SUSITNA VALLEY WEST OF THE PARKS HIGHWAY TONIGHT. HEAVY SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE RICHARDSON HIGHWAY SOUTH OF COPPER
CENTER THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF INTO
SHOWERS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. REGARDING PRECIPITATION
TYPE...COASTAL AREAS SHOULD SEE MOSTLY RAIN OVERNIGHT WITH SNOW
EXPECTED OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE
SUSITNA VALLEY. IN THE ANCHORAGE AND MATANUSKA VALLEY...PRECIPITATION
SHOULD REMAIN A RAIN AND SNOW MIX WITH A REASONABLE WARM LAYER
APPARENT ON THE ANCHORAGE 00Z SOUNDING. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
RAPIDLY DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH TONIGHT.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION SATURDAY AS THE LOW
MOVES INTO SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO
THE REGION WITH DECREASING CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL ALSO INCREASE WINDS THROUGH CHANNELED
AREAS ALONG SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA...PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND...AND
THE COPPER RIVER DELTA.
OVER THE MARINE AREAS...STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE DECREASING
RAPIDLY ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST/PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THIS
EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES INLAND. WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW...WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN TOMORROW EVENING THROUGH THE BARREN
ISLANDS AND INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA TO GALE FORCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
RAIN AND GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AS THE LOW OVER THE FAR EASTERN BERING TRACKS ACROSS THE
AKPEN TONIGHT AND INTO THE WESTERN GULF BY FRIDAY MORNING. GUSTY
WINDS WILL PICK BACK UP ALONG THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE AND LOWER
KUSKOKWIM DELTA FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS COLDER
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM HELPS TO MIX GUSTY WINDS
ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WITH THE COLDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
SETTING UP OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND FRIDAY...THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA AND VALLEY ALONG WITH PARTS OF INTERIOR BRISTOL BAY COULD
SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH GALES AND STORM FORCE WINDS WILL PERSIST
OVER THE EASTERN BERING AND ALEUTIANS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AS
THE LOW OVER THE FAR EASTERN BERING TRACKS ACROSS THE AKPEN
TONIGHT AND INTO THE WESTERN GULF BY FRIDAY MORNING. AS WEAK
RIDGING TRACKS OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS FRIDAY...WINDS AND
SHOWERY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS
IS IN STORE FOR THE ALEUTIANS AS A COLD FRONT MARCHES EASTWARD
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL
BE COLD ENOUGH TO CHANGE PRECIPITATION TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
OR EVEN ALL SNOW IN THE COLDEST AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
IN THE MID TERM THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN BERING AND ITS FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH THE CENTRAL
BERING AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. THE FRONT LOOKS TO REACH THE
SOUTHWEST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN THE SOUTHCENTRAL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE BIGGEST QUESTION WITH THIS SYSTEM IS WHAT TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION IT WILL BRING. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT IT WILL
PULL UP ENOUGH WARM AIR FROM THE SOUTH TO TRANSITION TO RAIN FOR
MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE FOR THE
LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY WHERE PRECIP WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE FORM
OF SNOW INTO SUNDAY THEN EITHER TRANSITION OVER TO RAIN...OR IF
THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES STAY COLD ENOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME
FREEZING RAIN. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP TYPE IS LOW.
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA ON SUNDAY THE
QUESTION OF HOW MUCH WARM AIR MOVES IN REMAINS THE ISSUE. THE
MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE LOOKS TO KEEP SNOW FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE AREAS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PLACES RIGHT ALONG THE NORTH GULF
COAST. BY MONDAY THE FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED THROUGH LEAVING
WESTERLY FLOW FOR SOUTHERN ALASKA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH QUITE A BIT WITH THIS SHIFT
BUT SOME SNOW WILL REMAIN FOR SOUTHERN ALASKA.
&&
.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 119 125 155.
GALE WARNING 120 130 131 132 150 160 165 170 171 172
173 174 175 176 179 180 181.
&&
SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DEK
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...RF
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TP
LONG TERM...DKThe office that day
Everything else NWS Anchorage, AK issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5, 3:03 PM AKST | Gale Warning | AFC | 37 hr | |
| Nov 5, 3:03 PM AKST | Small Craft Advisory | AFC | 12 hr | |
| Nov 5, 3:19 PM AKST | Gale Warning | AFC | 24 hr | |
| Nov 5, 3:19 PM AKST | Small Craft Advisory | AFC | 36 hr | |
| Nov 6, 3:14 AM AKST | Gale Warning | AFC | 25 hr | |
| Nov 6, 3:14 AM AKST | Small Craft Advisory | AFC | 25 hr | |
| Nov 6, 3:19 AM AKST | Gale Warning | AFC | 36 hr | |
| Nov 6, 3:19 AM AKST | Small Craft Advisory | AFC | 48 hr |
Nearby
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.