Gale Warning 66, NWS Anchorage, AK

065 
FZAK51 PAFC 150617 AAB
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
917 PM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

UPDATE TO ZONE 129

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST UP
TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-151915-
917 PM AKST WED JAN 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 961 MB LOW 210 NM SOUTHEAST OF CHIGNIK WILL TRACK TO BRISTOL
BAY THU AFTERNOON THEN WEAKEN OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA FRI. 
A FRONT ALONG THE NORTHERN TO WESTERN GULF WILL WEAKEN WED NIGHT.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS THE GULF WED NIGHT AND THU THEN DISSIPATE
AS IT MOVES ONSHORE ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST LATE THU AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-151915-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
917 PM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT NEAR THE COAST WEST OF
MONTAGUE ISLAND. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
20 FT. RAIN.  
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.  
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ120-151915-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
917 PM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.  
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.  
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ121-151915-
RESURRECTION BAY-
917 PM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. RAIN.  
.THU...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.  
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.  
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.SAT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-151915-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
917 PM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK
ENTRANCE. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT BY NOON. SEAS 6 FT
SUBSIDING TO 4 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.  
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-151915-
PORT VALDEZ-
917 PM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.  
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.  
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.  
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.SAT THROUGH MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-151915-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
917 PM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.  
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.  
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.  
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.SAT THROUGH MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-151915-
VALDEZ ARM-
917 PM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.  
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.  
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.  
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-151915-
PASSAGE CANAL-
917 PM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN.  
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.  
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-151915-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
917 PM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.  
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.  
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ131-151915-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
917 PM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO SE 30 KT SE OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS TOWARD MORNING.  SEAS 17 FT. RAIN. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.  
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ132-151915-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
917 PM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.  
.THU AND THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.  
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ136-151915-
CHINIAK BAY-
917 PM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN.  
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.  
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.  
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ137-151915-
MARMOT BAY-
917 PM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN.  
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.  
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.  
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ138-151915-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
917 PM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 13 FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT. RAIN.  
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.  
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.  
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ139-151915-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
917 PM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.  
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT. RAIN.  
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.  
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-151915-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
917 PM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.  
.THU...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.  
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. RAIN.  
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.  
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-151915-
KACHEMAK BAY-
917 PM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.  
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.  
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.  
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

747 
FZAK51 PAFC 151253
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
353 AM AKST THU JAN 15 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-160130-
353 AM AKST THU JAN 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 960 MB LOW 100 NM SOUTHWEST OF SITKINAK WILL MOVE TO 50 NM NORTH
OF NELSON LAGOON BY THU NIGHT AT 966 MB THEN WEAKEN OVER THE
EASTERN BERING SEA FRI. A 983 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP 430 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SITKINAK EARLY FRI MORNING AND TRACK TO 120 NM SOUTH
OF MIDDLETON ISLAND AT 978 MB BY FRI NIGHT.

$$

PKZ119-160130-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
353 AM AKST THU JAN 15 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
18 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ120-160130-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
353 AM AKST THU JAN 15 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
17 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ121-160130-
RESURRECTION BAY-
353 AM AKST THU JAN 15 2015

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-160130-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
353 AM AKST THU JAN 15 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-160130-
PORT VALDEZ-
353 AM AKST THU JAN 15 2015

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-160130-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
353 AM AKST THU JAN 15 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-160130-
VALDEZ ARM-
353 AM AKST THU JAN 15 2015

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-160130-
PASSAGE CANAL-
353 AM AKST THU JAN 15 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-160130-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
353 AM AKST THU JAN 15 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 40 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 10
FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT AND FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ131-160130-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
353 AM AKST THU JAN 15 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ132-160130-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
353 AM AKST THU JAN 15 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ136-160130-
CHINIAK BAY-
353 AM AKST THU JAN 15 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ137-160130-
MARMOT BAY-
353 AM AKST THU JAN 15 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ138-160130-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
353 AM AKST THU JAN 15 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ139-160130-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
353 AM AKST THU JAN 15 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-160130-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
353 AM AKST THU JAN 15 2015

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 1 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 1 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-160130-
KACHEMAK BAY-
353 AM AKST THU JAN 15 2015

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
423 PM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A VERY LARGE CYCLONIC MERRY-GO-ROUND CONTINUES OVER THE NORTH
PACIFIC/BERING SEA THANKS TO THE DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING RIDGE ALONG
THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THREE
DEEP LOWS OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC. THE PRIMARY ONE OF CONCERN IS
A STORM FORCE LOW TRACKING TOWARD THE ALASKA PENINSULA WITH A
FRONTAL SYSTEM TRACKING NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA.
THERE IS ALSO A VERY SHARP SHORT-WAVE ALOFT TRACKING RIGHT BEHIND
THE SURFACE FRONT. RADAR IMAGERY REFLECTS THE STRONG VERTICAL
MOTION OUT AHEAD OF THIS...WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION
OVER THE NORTHERN TO WESTERN GULF.

THE ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT CROSSING THE GULF IS SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST SO LOW LEVEL FLOW OUT AHEAD OF IT IS NORTHERLY.
THUS...AS PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO PROGRESS ONSHORE OF
SOUTHCENTRAL AND BRISTOL BAY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THERE IS
LITTLE OR NO CROSS BARRIER FLOW...SO MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL QUICKLY BECOME STRONG EASTERLY PRODUCING
DOWNSLOPE DRYING FOR MANY AREAS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE COPPER
RIVER BASIN SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE PRIMARILY ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND OVER INTO BRISTOL BAY. THUS...THE
ONLY POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BE IN THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN.

THERE ARE A COUPLE OTHER MUCH WEAKER FEATURES IN THE FORECAST
AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE IS EXITING THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA
AND HEADED ACROSS THE NORTHERN BERING...BRINGING AN END TO THE
MOST RECENT FREEZING RAIN EVENT. A WEAK LOW NORTH OF THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS IS ABOUT TO EXIT THE AREA. LASTLY...A DEEP LOW SOUTH OF
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS IS THROWING SOME PRECIP AND WINDS TOWARD THE
CENTRAL TO EASTERN ALEUTIANS...BUT THE GREATEST IMPACTS ARE OVER
THE NORTH PACIFIC.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH
JUST SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN SURFACE LOW POSITIONS. THUS FORECAST
CONFIDENCE WITH THE CURRENT STORM SYSTEM IS ABOVE AVERAGE. MODELS
DO QUICKLY DIVERGE WITH DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF A LOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND UP TO THE GULF OF ALASKA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. WITH NO REASON TO FAVOR ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION AT THIS
POINT IN TIME WILL STICK CLOSE TO INHERITED GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
MORE OF THE SAME IS IN STORE THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE GULF LOW
SLOWLY WEAKENS NEAR THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
FOCUSES ABUNDANT PRECIPITATION ALONG THE GULF COAST...WITH STRONG
DOWNSLOPE FLOW HELPING TO KEEP INLAND AREAS LIMITED TO JUST A FEW
SHOWERS. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL CONTINUE TO BE MAINLY
RAIN...ALTHOUGH A FEW PATCHES OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN CANNOT BE
RULED OUT TONIGHT FROM ANCHORAGE INTO THE MAT-SU AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DIP BELOW FREEZING AND A WARM LAYER PERSISTS ABOVE
THE SURFACE. FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH ON THURSDAY AS
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY COOL ALOFT...ALLOWING SOME SNOW TO BEGIN TO
MIX IN BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...

PRECIPITATION HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE BRISTOL BAY AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT PUSHING TOWARD THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
BRISTOL BAY AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...STRONG
CROSS BARRIER FLOW OVER THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN RANGES WILL CREATE
AREAS OF DOWNSLOPING OVER KING SALMON (AS WELL AS OTHER IMMEDIATE
AREAS ON THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS) AND THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT. PRECIPITATION IN THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY
WILL LIKELY FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW AS SURFACE TO 850 MB THICKNESSES
DROP BELOW 129 DECAMETERS. THIS IS DUE IN LARGE PART TO NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS AT BOTH THE SURFACE AND JUST OFF THE SURFACE THAT HAVE USHER
IN COOLER AIR FROM THE INTERIOR (AS SEEN IN THE JAN 14 12Z AND JAN
15 00Z RAOBS) WHICH HAS CHISELED AWAY AT THE WARM NOSE THAT BROUGHT
FREEZING RAIN TO THE BETHEL AREA THIS MORNING. NEVERTHELESS...A
SMALL AREA OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MIGHT BE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN SECTION OF THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA BUT PRECIPITATION WILL
BE LIGHT AND LIKELY HAVE MINIMAL IF ANY IMPACT AT ALL.

THIS WET PERIOD WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK...WITH CROSS BARRIER FLOW EATING UP A BIT OF THE
PRECIPITATION FALLING OVER THE BRISTOL BAY AREA. THE ANOMALOUSLY
WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AS A LOW PARKS ITSELF OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND
CONTINUES TO ADVECT WARM AIR NORTHWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...

AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA CONTINUES
TO MOVE WESTWARD AND DISSIPATE...YET ANOTHER LOW FROM THE NORTH
PACIFIC WILL PUSH TOWARD THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WILL STALL OVER THE
ALASKA PENINSULA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND BRING RAIN AND POSSIBLY
SOME SNOW TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BERING SEA. THE SNOW WOULD
LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS WHILE THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA REMAIN DOMINATED BY RAIN. SCATTERED
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE SEEN OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
BERING SEA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE SHOWERS TURN TO ALL SNOW
AS A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS DROPS SOUTH FROM SIBERIA.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
BY EARLY SATURDAY THE LAST OF A SERIES OF GULF LOWS WILL APPROACH
THE NORTH GULF COAST...BRINGING YET ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND WARM
TEMPERATURES MAINLY TO THE COASTAL AREAS. THE IMPACT OF THIS
SYSTEM TO THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN MAINLAND IS STILL UNKNOWN DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY OF THE LOW TRACK THROUGH THE GULF. THE NAM AND MOST
RECENT GFS ARE MUCH FURTHER WEST WITH THIS LOW...BRINING IT
TOWARDS THE KENAI BY LATE SATURDAY...WHILE THE EC HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN
THE FURTHEST EAST BY TRACKING TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. THE
GEM GLOBAL IS CURRENTLY THE PREFERRED MODEL FOR THIS SYSTEM AS IT
IS A COMPRISE BETWEEN THE NAM/GFS AND THE EC...AND KEEPS
SOUTHCENTRAL MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IN THAT
FORECAST IS HOWEVER LOW DUE TO THE LARGE UNCERTAINTY OF THE LOW
TRACK. OUT WEST...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND
ON FRIDAY EVENING WILL BRING RAIN/SNOW AND COOLING TEMPERATURES TO
THE AREA THAT LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY OR POSSIBLY SUNDAY.

STARTING ON SUNDAY THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE MAINLAND...BRINGING ANOTHER SHORT LIVED
PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER (WITH CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES) THAT
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. YET ANOTHER NORTH PACIFIC
LOW WILL THEN APPROACH THE GULF STARTING ON TUESDAY...BRINING A
RETURN TO WARM AND ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 119 120 130 131 138 160 165 179 351 352 412 414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MC
LONG TERM...DEK