Gale Warning 650, NWS Anchorage, AK

207 
FZAK51 PAFC 161116
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
316 AM AKDT FRI OCT 16 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-170015-
316 AM AKDT FRI OCT 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 988 MB LOW 280 NM SOUTHEAST OF SITKINAK WILL BE ABSORBED INTO A
983MB LOW 300 NM EAST OF KODIAK TODAY. THIS LOW WILL MOVE ONSHORE
NEAR SEWARD AT 985 MB EARLY SAT MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT
STRETCHING FROM KODIAK ISLAND TO DIXON ENTRANCE WILL WEAKEN
TODAY AND DISSIPATE IN PLACE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

$$

PKZ119-170015-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
316 AM AKDT FRI OCT 16 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ120-170015-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
316 AM AKDT FRI OCT 16 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ121-170015-
RESURRECTION BAY-
316 AM AKDT FRI OCT 16 2015

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2
FT BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON...SEAS HIGHER SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-170015-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
316 AM AKDT FRI OCT 16 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-170015-
PORT VALDEZ-
316 AM AKDT FRI OCT 16 2015

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-170015-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
316 AM AKDT FRI OCT 16 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-170015-
VALDEZ ARM-
316 AM AKDT FRI OCT 16 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE WIND 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-170015-
PASSAGE CANAL-
316 AM AKDT FRI OCT 16 2015

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-170015-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
316 AM AKDT FRI OCT 16 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ131-170015-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
316 AM AKDT FRI OCT 16 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING N 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ132-170015-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
316 AM AKDT FRI OCT 16 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ136-170015-
CHINIAK BAY-
316 AM AKDT FRI OCT 16 2015

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ137-170015-
MARMOT BAY-
316 AM AKDT FRI OCT 16 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5
FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ138-170015-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
316 AM AKDT FRI OCT 16 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-170015-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
316 AM AKDT FRI OCT 16 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT
SUBSIDING. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ140-170015-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
316 AM AKDT FRI OCT 16 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-170015-
KACHEMAK BAY-
316 AM AKDT FRI OCT 16 2015

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

504 
FZAK51 PAFC 162319
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
319 PM AKDT FRI OCT 16 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-171215-
319 PM AKDT FRI OCT 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 988 MB LOW 160 NM SOUTHEAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND MOVES ONSHORE NEAR
SEWARD EARLY SAT MORNING AND MAINTAINS STRENGTH. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT
STRETCHING FROM KODIAK ISLAND TO DIXON ENTRANCE WILL WEAKEN AND
DISSIPATE IN PLACE SAT. A 988 MB LOW DEVELOPS 360 NM SOUTH OF
KODIAK SAT AFTERNOON AND MOVES INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND SUN
AFTERNOON AT 998 MB.

$$

PKZ119-171215-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
319 PM AKDT FRI OCT 16 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT TOWARD MORNING. SEAS
15 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ120-171215-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
319 PM AKDT FRI OCT 16 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ121-171215-
RESURRECTION BAY-
319 PM AKDT FRI OCT 16 2015

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 3 FT.
HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-171215-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
319 PM AKDT FRI OCT 16 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-171215-
PORT VALDEZ-
319 PM AKDT FRI OCT 16 2015

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-171215-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
319 PM AKDT FRI OCT 16 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-171215-
VALDEZ ARM-
319 PM AKDT FRI OCT 16 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-171215-
PASSAGE CANAL-
319 PM AKDT FRI OCT 16 2015

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-171215-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
319 PM AKDT FRI OCT 16 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 11 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-171215-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
319 PM AKDT FRI OCT 16 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10
FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ132-171215-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
319 PM AKDT FRI OCT 16 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ136-171215-
CHINIAK BAY-
319 PM AKDT FRI OCT 16 2015

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-171215-
MARMOT BAY-
319 PM AKDT FRI OCT 16 2015

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-171215-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
319 PM AKDT FRI OCT 16 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ139-171215-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
319 PM AKDT FRI OCT 16 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 10 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-171215-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
319 PM AKDT FRI OCT 16 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-171215-
KACHEMAK BAY-
319 PM AKDT FRI OCT 16 2015

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

444 
FZAK51 PAFC 171141
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
341 AM AKDT SAT OCT 17 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-180030-
341 AM AKDT SAT OCT 17 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 984 MB LOW NEAR MONTAGUE ISLAND MOVES ONSHORE NEAR WHITTIER SAT
MORNING AND DISSIPATES SAT AFTERNOON. A 988 MB LOW DEVELOPS 360
NM SOUTH OF KODIAK SAT AFTERNOON AND MOVES INTO PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND SUN AFTERNOON AT 996 MB.

$$

PKZ119-180030-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
341 AM AKDT SAT OCT 17 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ120-180030-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
341 AM AKDT SAT OCT 17 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ121-180030-
RESURRECTION BAY-
341 AM AKDT SAT OCT 17 2015

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-180030-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
341 AM AKDT SAT OCT 17 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-180030-
PORT VALDEZ-
341 AM AKDT SAT OCT 17 2015

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-180030-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
341 AM AKDT SAT OCT 17 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT BY LATE
MORNING. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-180030-
VALDEZ ARM-
341 AM AKDT SAT OCT 17 2015

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE BY LATE MORNING THEN
BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-180030-
PASSAGE CANAL-
341 AM AKDT SAT OCT 17 2015

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING E THIS MORNING THEN DIMINISHING TO
10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-180030-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
341 AM AKDT SAT OCT 17 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7
FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-180030-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
341 AM AKDT SAT OCT 17 2015

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ132-180030-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
341 AM AKDT SAT OCT 17 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ136-180030-
CHINIAK BAY-
341 AM AKDT SAT OCT 17 2015

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
RAIN.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-180030-
MARMOT BAY-
341 AM AKDT SAT OCT 17 2015

.TODAY...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
RAIN.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-180030-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
341 AM AKDT SAT OCT 17 2015

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ139-180030-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
341 AM AKDT SAT OCT 17 2015

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5
FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ140-180030-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
341 AM AKDT SAT OCT 17 2015

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-180030-
KACHEMAK BAY-
341 AM AKDT SAT OCT 17 2015

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
506 AM AKDT THU OCT 15 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
ALASKA AND THE NORTHERN PACIFIC REMAIN IN A PROGRESSIVE HIGH
AMPLITUDE PATTERN THIS MORNING. OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
REGION...A BROAD TROUGH WITH AN LARGE CLOSED LOW IS LOCATED ON THE
BERING SIDE OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WITH A BROAD RIDGE
MIGRATING EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. TO THE
EAST...ANOTHER BROAD AND DEEP TROUGH WITH A CLOSED LOW IS CENTERED
ALONG 153W WITH A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE EAST SPANNING FROM
SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA SOUTHWARD TO THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST. THE POLAR JET IS CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE
REGION WITH SPEED MAXIMA OF ABOUT 130 KT ALONG THE BERING RIDGE
AND ABOUT 90 KT ALONG THE RIDGE ALONG SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA.

AT THE SURFACE...AN OCCLUDED FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A 983MB LOW
NEAR KAMCHATKA IS PROGRESSING THROUGH THE WESTERN BERING SEA WITH
A TRIPLE POINT SURFACE LOW FORMING SOUTH OF ADAK THIS MORNING. A
WEAK INVERTED TROUGH IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE PRIBILOF
ISLANDS. EMBEDDED IN THIS INVERTED TROUGH IS A DISSIPATING 1010 MB
LOW THAT IS BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA. OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA...A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A COMPLEX LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC ALONG
150W IS APPROACHING THE SOUTHCENTRAL COAST AS THE LOW MOVES
NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF. A SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT IS
BRINING RAIN TO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA FROM KODIAK EASTWARD TO PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH THE GENERAL MOVEMENT AND
DEVELOPMENT OF MAJOR FEATURES. AS PREVIOUSLY NOTED...THE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE SOLUTIONS ARE MAINLY AT THE MESO TO LOCAL
SCALE. THE LARGEST DIFFERENCE IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE MODELS IS
THEIR DEVELOPMENT OF THE LARGE LOW CURRENTLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN
PACIFIC AND ITS MOVEMENT INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT BEGIN TO DIVERGE
TONIGHT AS THE LOW COMPLEX BEGINS TO FRAGMENT INTO MULTIPLE
VORTICITY CENTERS BY FRIDAY EVENING. THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT IN PLACING A BROAD SURFACE LOW OVER THE ALASKA
PENINSULA BUT PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THE MESOSCALE SURFACE
FEATURES VARY...WHICH REDUCES OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE. FOR
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...A COMBINATION OF THE GEM-REGIONAL AND THE
GFS WERE FAVORED IN THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA REGION IS BRIEFLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF AN UPPER LEVEL WEAK RIDGE THIS MORNING. WHILE...THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY IN THE NORTHERN GULF AND MOVING
TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST. PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL
MOVE ONSHORE LATER TODAY AND THEN SPREAD INLAND TONIGHT. THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY WELL
TO THE SOUTH...CENTERED AROUND 46 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE/150
DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE. THIS ELONGATED LOW IS SLOWLY MOVING TO
THE NORTH AND WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE IT BEGINS TO LOSE COHESION AS ANOTHER
UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WILL BE IN
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THE END OF THE SHORT TERM (SATURDAY MORNING). THIS WILL KEEP
MOISTURE AND RAIN/SHOWERS PUMPING INTO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A WEAKENING WARM FRONT ALOFT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE BRISTOL BAY
COAST THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE IT MOVES WESTWARD INTO THE
EASTERN BERING. ANOTHER MORE STOUT WARM FRONT WILL MOVE FROM EAST
TO WEST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD
RAIN TO ALL OF SOUTHWEST. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE
BRISTOL BAY REGION AND INTO THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. GIVEN THE
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT MOVING IN WITH THIS FRONT...ALL RAIN
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A STRONG GALE FORCE FRONT OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE
INTO THE CENTRAL BERING THEN WEAKEN...FORMING INTO A TRIPLE
POINT LOW BEFORE MOVING EAST INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC. THIS WILL
SPREAD MORE RAIN AND RAIN SHOWERS AS THE SYSTEM MAKES EASTWARD
PROGRESS THROUGH SATURDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW...CURRENTLY
WEST OF SHEMYA...WILL ALSO DRIFT EAST AND WEAKEN KEEPING SOME
SHOWERY ACTIVITY OVER THE WESTERN BERING THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING LOW CENTERED NEAR
KODIAK ISLAND WILL BRING CONTINUED RAIN FROM THE GULF COAST INTO
BRISTOL BAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS RAINFALL WILL THEN BEGIN
TO LIFT INTO SOUTHCENTRAL AND THE INTERIOR SOUTHWEST MAINLAND ON
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT INTO THE
MAINLAND. MEANWHILE OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS A WEAK LOW WILL
BEGIN TO ENTER THE AREA ON SATURDAY MORNING...AND MERGE WITH THE
GULF LOW AS IT MOVES INTO THE BERING ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE
A BROAD TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN BERING THAT WILL PERSIST
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...KEEPING THE JET AND ANY MAJOR WEATHER
SYSTEMS SOUTH OF THE AREA.

BY NEXT TUESDAY SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT DEVELOPS WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF A LOW NEAR THE GULF. THE GFS HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN AN
OUTLIER WITH THIS FEATURE BY BRINGING IT AS FAR NORTH AS KODIAK
ISLAND...WHILE THE GEM/EC HAVE BEEN EQUALLY CONSISTENT IN A MUCH
FURTHER SOUTH SOLUTION. FOR NOW THE CURRENT FORECAST HEAVILY
USES ENSEMBLES TO BRING A MUCH WEAKER LOW INTO THE GULF BY MID
WEEK...BUT FURTHER MODEL RUNS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED TO
DETERMINE THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. AS A RESULT FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW BEYOND EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND AND THE GULF.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...119 120 130 131 132 136 137 138 139 150.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RF
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JA
LONG TERM...DEK