Gale Warning 649, NWS Anchorage, AK

271 
FZAK52 PAFC 151140 CCA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
340 AM AKDT THU OCT 15 2015

CORRECTED TYPO

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-160045-
340 AM AKDT THU OCT 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 982 MB LOW 450 NM WEST OF SHEMYA MOVES TO 85 NM SOUTHWEST OF
SHEMYA BY SAT MORNING AS A 986 MB LOW. A 994 MB LOW FORMS 190 NM
SOUTHWEST OF DUTCH HARBOR FRI MORNING THEN DISSIPATES BY SAT
MORNING.

$$

PKZ150-160045-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
340 AM AKDT THU OCT 15 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT BY THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ155-160045-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
340 AM AKDT THU OCT 15 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT EXCEPT NE 25 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS
E. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM THE
SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ160-160045-
BRISTOL BAY-
340 AM AKDT THU OCT 15 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ165-160045-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
340 AM AKDT THU OCT 15 2015

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT EXCEPT NE 20 KT FROM PORT MOLLER E.
SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ170-160045-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
340 AM AKDT THU OCT 15 2015

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ171-160045-
UNALASKA BAY-
340 AM AKDT THU OCT 15 2015

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ172-160045-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
340 AM AKDT THU OCT 15 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ173-160045-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
340 AM AKDT THU OCT 15 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ174-160045-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
340 AM AKDT THU OCT 15 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ175-160045-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
340 AM AKDT THU OCT 15 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ176-160045-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
340 AM AKDT THU OCT 15 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ177-160045-
ADAK TO KISKA-
340 AM AKDT THU OCT 15 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ178-160045-
KISKA TO ATTU-
340 AM AKDT THU OCT 15 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ179-160045-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
340 AM AKDT THU OCT 15 2015

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ180-160045-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
340 AM AKDT THU OCT 15 2015

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ181-160045-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
340 AM AKDT THU OCT 15 2015

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ185-160045-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
340 AM AKDT THU OCT 15 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...E 30 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

185 
FZAK52 PAFC 152332
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
332 PM AKDT THU OCT 15 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-161215-
332 PM AKDT THU OCT 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 981 MB LOW 280 NM WEST OF SHEMYA MOVES TO 150 NM SOUTHEAST OF
SHEMYA AS A 988 MB LOW BY SAT AFTERNOON. A 995 MB LOW FORMS 190 NM
SOUTHWEST OF DUTCH HARBOR FRI MORNING THEN DISSIPATES AS IT
DRIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH SAT MORNING. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS NEAR BRISTOL BAY SAT AND REMAINS STATIONARY.

$$

PKZ150-161215-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
332 PM AKDT THU OCT 15 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
GUSTS INCREASING TO 50 KT THIS EVENING...THEN DIMINISHING TO 40 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 16 FT SUBSIDING TO 11 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
RAIN.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ155-161215-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
332 PM AKDT THU OCT 15 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM THE
SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ160-161215-
BRISTOL BAY-
332 PM AKDT THU OCT 15 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ165-161215-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
332 PM AKDT THU OCT 15 2015

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT EXCEPT NE 20 KT FROM PORT MOLLER E.
SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ170-161215-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
332 PM AKDT THU OCT 15 2015

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ171-161215-
UNALASKA BAY-
332 PM AKDT THU OCT 15 2015

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-161215-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
332 PM AKDT THU OCT 15 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ173-161215-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
332 PM AKDT THU OCT 15 2015

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ174-161215-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
332 PM AKDT THU OCT 15 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ175-161215-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
332 PM AKDT THU OCT 15 2015

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ176-161215-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
332 PM AKDT THU OCT 15 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ177-161215-
ADAK TO KISKA-
332 PM AKDT THU OCT 15 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ178-161215-
KISKA TO ATTU-
332 PM AKDT THU OCT 15 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ179-161215-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
332 PM AKDT THU OCT 15 2015

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ180-161215-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
332 PM AKDT THU OCT 15 2015

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ181-161215-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
332 PM AKDT THU OCT 15 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ185-161215-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
332 PM AKDT THU OCT 15 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...E 30 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

472 
FZAK52 PAFC 161126
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
326 AM AKDT FRI OCT 16 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-170045-
326 AM AKDT FRI OCT 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 981 MB LOW 150 NM WEST OF ATTU MOVES TO 200 NM SOUTHWEST OF
ADAK AS A 992 MB LOW BY SAT EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING SUNDAY MORNING. 
A 990 MB LOW FORMS 200 NM SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR THIS AFTERNOON 
THEN DISSIPATES NEAR SITKINAK SAT MORNING. A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA SAT AND REMAINS STATIONARY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

$$

PKZ150-170045-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
326 AM AKDT FRI OCT 16 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ155-170045-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
326 AM AKDT FRI OCT 16 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ160-170045-
BRISTOL BAY-
326 AM AKDT FRI OCT 16 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ165-170045-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
326 AM AKDT FRI OCT 16 2015

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ170-170045-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
326 AM AKDT FRI OCT 16 2015

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ171-170045-
UNALASKA BAY-
326 AM AKDT FRI OCT 16 2015

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-170045-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
326 AM AKDT FRI OCT 16 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ173-170045-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
326 AM AKDT FRI OCT 16 2015

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW IN THE LATE MORNING. SEAS 6
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ174-170045-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
326 AM AKDT FRI OCT 16 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ175-170045-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
326 AM AKDT FRI OCT 16 2015

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ176-170045-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
326 AM AKDT FRI OCT 16 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ177-170045-
ADAK TO KISKA-
326 AM AKDT FRI OCT 16 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ178-170045-
KISKA TO ATTU-
326 AM AKDT FRI OCT 16 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ179-170045-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
326 AM AKDT FRI OCT 16 2015

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ180-170045-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
326 AM AKDT FRI OCT 16 2015

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ181-170045-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
326 AM AKDT FRI OCT 16 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ185-170045-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
326 AM AKDT FRI OCT 16 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
432 PM AKDT WED OCT 14 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE DYNAMIC PATTERN HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTH
PACIFIC. THE SOUTHERN TIER OF ALASKA...FROM THE ALEUTIANS EASTWARD
TO THE GULF OF ALASKA...IS SITTING ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
MOST ACTIVE WEATHER. A LOOK AT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP
CLOSED LOW/TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC...A RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND BERING...ANOTHER CLOSED LOW AND DIGGING
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC...AND A BUILDING RIDGE OVER
THE FAR EAST PACIFIC NUDGING UP INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA.

AN OCCLUDED FRONT SPREADING OUT FROM THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC LOW IS
PUSHING A GALE FORCE OCCLUDED FRONT TOWARD THE ALEUTIANS. A SERIES
OF NOTABLY WEAKER FEATURES ARE AFFECTING THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY...WITH GENERALLY WEAK FLOW ALOFT AWAY FROM THE MAIN JET
DYNAMICS. A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE OVER THE
EASTERN BERING IS OVERHEAD OF AN INVERTED TROUGH BETWEEN COLD BAY
AND UNALASKA. A FAIRLY NARROW BAND OF RAIN IS FOCUSED ALONG THIS
TROUGH AXIS. A WEAK WARM FRONT HAS MOVED UP FROM THE PACIFIC AND
EXTENDS FROM KODIAK ISLAND TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WITH STEADY
RAIN SPREADING NORTH AND WEST WITH THE FRONT. OUT AHEAD OF THIS A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHWEST
ALASKA AND WESTERN SOUTHCENTRAL PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES.
HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME KEY DIFFERENCES IN THE MESOSCALE TO LOCAL
SCALE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WHICH LOWER FORECAST CONFIDENCE
TO AVERAGE TO BELOW AVERAGE. THE MOST IMPACTFUL DIFFERENCE TO THE
FORECAST IS DIFFERENCES IN SPEED OF THE WARM FRONT MOVING UP FROM
THE EAST PACIFIC AND ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA TO THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND...ALONG WITH DIFFERENCES IN LOCATION AND EXTENT OF TRIPLE
POINT DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND ON THURSDAY OR THURSDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A DEFINITE TREND IN ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS TOWARD
FASTER MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT WESTWARD TOWARD KODIAK ISLAND
AND BRISTOL BAY. THIS MAKES A LOT OF SENSE BASED ON STRENGTH AND
ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER JET. BASED ON THIS WILL MOVE UP ARRIVAL
OF RAIN AND STRONG WINDS. THE PRESENCE OF A TRIPLE POINT LOW (OR
LACK THERE OF) WILL AFFECT THE STRENGTH OF WINDS ACROSS KODIAK
ISLAND/WESTERN GULF. FOR NOW HAVE DOWNPLAYED THE PRESENCE OF A
LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK...SO WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AND
BE PREPARED FOR STRONGER WINDS IF A LOW DOES DEVELOP.

MEANWHILE...OUT WEST MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH LOCATION
OF TRIPLE POINT DEVELOPMENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.
HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF WHICH REPRESENTS A MIDDLE GROUND OF
ALL SOLUTIONS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE LOCATION OF THE TRIPLE
POINT LOW WILL AFFECT MOVEMENT OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE
CENTRAL BERING AND ALEUTIANS AND THUS THE LOCATION OF STRONGEST
WINDS AND RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE WARM FRONT PUSHING INTO THE NORTH GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING RAIN TO THE AREA THIS EVENING BUT WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS
THE FRONT FALLS APART. THE WARM FRONT COMBINED WITH THE SHORT WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SOUTHCENTRAL HAS HELPED
PRODUCE RAIN IN AREAS AROUND NORTHERN COOK INLET EXTENDING NORTH
INTO THE MATANUSKA VALLEY. THIS RAIN WILL BE ON AND OFF IN THE
EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. THURSDAY WILL BE DRY FOR THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND BUT KODIAK WILL START TO SEE THE EFFECTS OF THE
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF. THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT TO THE
MAINLAND LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING BACK RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS AROUND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.

THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE WARM FRONT MAKES IT TO THE AREA
TEMPERATURES IN THE COPPER RIVER BASIN WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING.
AS THE FRONT MOVES IN IT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH ALOFT FOR RAIN. THAT
WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE COPPER
RIVER BASIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A WEAK WARM FRONT APPROACHING THE ALEUTIAN RANGE THIS EVENING
WILL BE THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WARM FRONTS TO BRING IN WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND STEADIER RAINFALL TO THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. IT SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOW
TO MID LEVELS TO DOWNSLOPE SOME OF THE AREAS CLOSER TO THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO REDEVELOP NEAR DILLINGHAM.
SOME OF THIS FLOW COULD CREATE A FEW GUSTS AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...BUT WINDS SHOULD STAY ELEVATED WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION. THE STRONGER WARM FRONT WILL START TO PUSH INTO THE
BRISTOL BAY AREA FROM THE GULF THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW AND SHOULD ALSO
LEAD TO SOME DECENT DRYING WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS.
HOWEVER...THAT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
THAT FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN RANGE BY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN BERING/ALEUTIANS WILL CONTINUE
TO PIVOT TO THE WEST THIS EVENING WHILE A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE CENTRAL BERING/ALEUTIANS
BY THURSDAY MORNING. GUSTY WINDS AND RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE STRONGEST OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
TONIGHT AND SLOWLY DIMINISH AS IT STARTS TO OUTRUN ITS UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT AND STALLS OUT OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THURSDAY
EVENING. A 130 KT JET JUST SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL
SUPPORT THIS SYSTEM MOVING EASTWARD AT A STEADY PACE...AS WELL AS
MIX DOWN SOME STRONGER WINDS THIS EVENING AS WINDS SWITCH FROM
SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY. AS THE PARENT LOW MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS FRIDAY MORNING RAIN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
OVER THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING LOW CENTERED NEAR
KODIAK ISLAND WILL BRING CONTINUED RAIN FROM THE GULF COAST INTO
BRISTOL BAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS RAINFALL WILL THEN BEGIN
TO LIFT INTO SOUTHCENTRAL AND THE INTERIOR SOUTHWEST MAINLAND ON
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT INTO THE
MAINLAND. MEANWHILE OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS A WEAK LOW WILL
BEGIN TO ENTER THE AREA ON SATURDAY MORNING...AND MERGE WITH THE
GULF LOW AS IT MOVES INTO THE BERING ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE
A BROAD TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN BERING THAT WILL PERSIST
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...KEEPING THE JET AND ANY MAJOR WEATHER
SYSTEMS SOUTH OF THE AREA.

BY NEXT TUESDAY SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT DEVELOPS WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF A LOW NEAR THE GULF. THE GFS HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN AN
OUTLIER WITH THIS FEATURE BY BRINGING IT AS FAR NORTH AS KODIAK
ISLAND...WHILE THE GEM/EC HAVE BEEN EQUALLY CONSISTENT IN A MUCH
FURTHER SOUTH SOLUTION. FOR NOW THE CURRENT FORECAST HEAVILY
USES ENSEMBLES TO BRING A MUCH WEAKER LOW INTO THE GULF BY MID
WEEK...BUT FURTHER MODEL RUNS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED TO
DETERMINE THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. AS A RESULT FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW BEYOND EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND AND THE GULF.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 119 120 130-139 150 177 178.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SEB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TP
LONG TERM...DEK