Gale Warning 593, NWS Anchorage, AK

657 
FZAK52 PAFC 302330
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
330 PM AKDT WED SEP 30 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-011230-
330 PM AKDT WED SEP 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 982 MB LOW 410 NM NORTHWEST OF SHEMYA WILL MOVE TO 330 NM WEST
OF GAMBELL THU AFTERNOON AND DEEPEN TO 973 MB THEN MOVE TO 320 NM
NORTHWEST OF GAMBELL FRI AFTERNOON AND WEAKEN TO 992 MB. THE
ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CENTRAL BERING THU
MORNING AND MOVE INTO THE EASTERN BERING THU AFTERNOON AND INLAND
LATE THU NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-011230-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
330 PM AKDT WED SEP 30 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT DIMINISHING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ155-011230-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
330 PM AKDT WED SEP 30 2015

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
GUSTS TO 30 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
.THU...S WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT...SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT
IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...VARIABLE WIND 10
KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON...SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT EXCEPT S 30 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS
E. SEAS 18 FT. FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO
12 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ160-011230-
BRISTOL BAY-
330 PM AKDT WED SEP 30 2015

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT.
RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ165-011230-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
330 PM AKDT WED SEP 30 2015

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM PORT
MOLLER E...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...S WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ170-011230-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
330 PM AKDT WED SEP 30 2015

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT SUBSIDING TO 9 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ171-011230-
UNALASKA BAY-
330 PM AKDT WED SEP 30 2015

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS
TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-011230-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
330 PM AKDT WED SEP 30 2015

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 10
FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.THU...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 21 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ173-011230-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
330 PM AKDT WED SEP 30 2015

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 55 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT BUILDING TO 21 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 50 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 22
FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ174-011230-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
330 PM AKDT WED SEP 30 2015

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...S WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO SW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 25 FT SUBSIDING TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ175-011230-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
330 PM AKDT WED SEP 30 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 55 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS
BUILDING TO 20 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ176-011230-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
330 PM AKDT WED SEP 30 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 55 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS
BUILDING TO 26 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 25 FT SUBSIDING TO 17 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ177-011230-
ADAK TO KISKA-
330 PM AKDT WED SEP 30 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 55 KT...BECOMING SW 25 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 23 FT SUBSIDING TO 16 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ178-011230-
KISKA TO ATTU-
330 PM AKDT WED SEP 30 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THU NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 17 FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT. AREAS OF
DENSE FOG IN THE EVENING. VSBY 1 MILE OR LESS. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ179-011230-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
330 PM AKDT WED SEP 30 2015

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT. SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 12
FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ180-011230-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
330 PM AKDT WED SEP 30 2015

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5
FT.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7
FT BUILDING TO 13 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ181-011230-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
330 PM AKDT WED SEP 30 2015

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...SE WIND INCREASING TO 50 KT. SEAS 11 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT
IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 17 FT SUBSIDING TO 11 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ185-011230-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
330 PM AKDT WED SEP 30 2015

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO
30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...S WIND 35 KT
BECOMING SE 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SE WIND 50 KT. W OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND...SE WIND 50 KT BECOMING SW 40 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 23 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...S WIND 30 KT. W OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND...S WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 20 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

538 
FZAK52 PAFC 011144
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
344 AM AKDT THU OCT 1 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-020100-
344 AM AKDT THU OCT 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 980 MB LOW 380 NM NORTH OF SHEMYA WILL MOVE TO 230 NM WEST OF
GAMBELL BY FRI MORNING...THEN WEAKEN TO 992 MB AS IT TRACKS INLAND 
OVER NORTHEASTERN RUSSIA FRI AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER
FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL BERING WILL TRACK INTO THE EASTERN BERING
BY THU AFTERNOON...THEN INLAND BY THU NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-020100-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
344 AM AKDT THU OCT 1 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ155-020100-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
344 AM AKDT THU OCT 1 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON...SEAS
6 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS
E...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON...SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS
E...SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ160-020100-
BRISTOL BAY-
344 AM AKDT THU OCT 1 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ165-020100-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
344 AM AKDT THU OCT 1 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND INCREASING TO 45 KT. FROM PORT MOLLER E...SE WIND
25 KT BECOMING S 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 12
FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM
PORT MOLLER E...S WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ170-020100-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
344 AM AKDT THU OCT 1 2015

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE EARLY MORNING THEN
DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT IN THE MORNING
BUILDING TO 17 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ171-020100-
UNALASKA BAY-
344 AM AKDT THU OCT 1 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 40 KT. GUSTS TO
55 KT DEVELOPING IN THE LATE MORNING. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
GUSTS TO 30 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-020100-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
344 AM AKDT THU OCT 1 2015

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT BY THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9
FT BUILDING TO 22 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 21 FT SUBSIDING TO 14 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ173-020100-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
344 AM AKDT THU OCT 1 2015

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 55 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
21 FT SUBSIDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ174-020100-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
344 AM AKDT THU OCT 1 2015

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 50 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
25 FT SUBSIDING TO 18 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ175-020100-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
344 AM AKDT THU OCT 1 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTS TO 55 KT IN THE MORNING. W OF ATKA...SW WIND 30 KT.
SEAS 15 FT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ176-020100-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
344 AM AKDT THU OCT 1 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
W OF ATKA...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT SUBSIDING TO 16 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ177-020100-
ADAK TO KISKA-
344 AM AKDT THU OCT 1 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 35 KT.
SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ178-020100-
KISKA TO ATTU-
344 AM AKDT THU OCT 1 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 30 KT.
SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ179-020100-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
344 AM AKDT THU OCT 1 2015

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE EARLY MORNING THEN
BECOMING S 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ180-020100-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
344 AM AKDT THU OCT 1 2015

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 45 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ181-020100-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
344 AM AKDT THU OCT 1 2015

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 50 KT. SEAS
11 FT BUILDING TO 19 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
17 FT SUBSIDING TO 11 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ185-020100-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
344 AM AKDT THU OCT 1 2015

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SE WIND 50 KT BECOMING SW 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND... SW 40 KT W
OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 21 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

619 
FZAK52 PAFC 012306
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
306 PM AKDT THU OCT 1 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-021145-
306 PM AKDT THU OCT 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 975 MB LOW 250 NM NORTHWEST OF SAINT MATTHEW WILL MOVE TO 250 NM
WEST OF GAMBELL FRI AFTERNOON AND WEAKEN TO 990 MB. THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT OVER THE EASTERN BERING WILL MOVE INLAND TONIGHT.
THE LOW WILL THEN REMAIN STATIONARY AND FURTHER WEAKEN TO 1008 MB
BY SAT AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-021145-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
306 PM AKDT THU OCT 1 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT.
RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ155-021145-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
306 PM AKDT THU OCT 1 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. FROM THE
SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT...EXCEPT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT W OF THE
SHUMAGIN ISLANDS. SEAS 16 FT...EXCEPT SUBSIDING TO 11 FT W OF
THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ160-021145-
BRISTOL BAY-
306 PM AKDT THU OCT 1 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ165-021145-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
306 PM AKDT THU OCT 1 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE EVENING. SEAS
13 FT SUBSIDING TO 9 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ170-021145-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
306 PM AKDT THU OCT 1 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 12 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ171-021145-
UNALASKA BAY-
306 PM AKDT THU OCT 1 2015

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
GUSTS TO 35 KT IN THE EARLY EVENING. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2
FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-021145-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
306 PM AKDT THU OCT 1 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE EVENING.
SEAS 20 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ173-021145-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
306 PM AKDT THU OCT 1 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ174-021145-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
306 PM AKDT THU OCT 1 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ175-021145-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
306 PM AKDT THU OCT 1 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ176-021145-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
306 PM AKDT THU OCT 1 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ177-021145-
ADAK TO KISKA-
306 PM AKDT THU OCT 1 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ178-021145-
KISKA TO ATTU-
306 PM AKDT THU OCT 1 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 15
FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ179-021145-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
306 PM AKDT THU OCT 1 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ180-021145-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
306 PM AKDT THU OCT 1 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 15 FT SUBSIDING TO 9 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ181-021145-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
306 PM AKDT THU OCT 1 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
GUSTS TO 50 KT IN THE EARLY EVENING. SEAS 15 FT SUBSIDING TO
10 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ185-021145-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
306 PM AKDT THU OCT 1 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SW 40 KT
W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 PM AKDT TUE SEP 29 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM NORTHERN
ALASKA AND DIGS ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF
ALASKA. AN IMPRESSIVE STREAM OF MOIST AIR IS SURGING NORTHWARD
FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN INTO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. THIS MOISTURE HAS
BEEN SUPPORTING HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL. TO THE WEST...AN IMPRESSIVE RIDGE COVERS
MUCH OF THE BERING...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING NEAR
KAMCHATKA. AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
CENTERED NEAR SEWARD WHICH HAS BEEN SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD RAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL TODAY. A SURFACE RIDGE IS LOCATED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS... WHICH IS HELPING TO
SUPPORT DEVELOPING GUSTY WINDS THROUGH GAPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
ALASKA AND KODIAK.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS TODAY ARE INDICATING A SIMILAR SOLUTION ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL...WITH WARM AIR PREVENTING WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL ACROSS
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE ANCHORAGE BOWL UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...MODELS ARE UNABLE TO RESOLVE WELL LOCAL EFFECTS WHICH
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WIDELY VARYING SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS ANCHORAGE
AND MATANUSKA VALLEY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR SEWARD GRADUALLY DRIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS MAINLAND
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2...WED AND
THU)...OUR EXTREMELY COMPLEX STORM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP. AS WE GO
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WE WILL SEE THE COLD AIR START TO PUSH
THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE AND HELP TO CHANGE MUCH OF THE RAIN OVER
TO SNOW FOR INLAND AREAS. THE NORTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY HAS ALREADY
TURNED TO ALL SNOW AND ARE SEEING THE WORST OF THE CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS HELPING TO BRING
VISIBILITIES DOWN TO ONE HALF MILE. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THAT AREA. MUCH OF THE FORECAST THINKING IS
STILL THE SAME FOR THE REST OF THE AREA. THE RAIN AND SNOW MIX
ACROSS MUCH OF LOWER ELEVATIONS AROUND COOK INLET WILL START TO
TURN OVER TO ALL SNOW AS WE GO INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 700 FT HAVE ALREADY TURNED TO ALL SNOW WITH THE
FREEZING LEVEL ON THE AFTERNOON SOUNDING AT 773 FT. WE DID TREND
THE ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS UP EVER-SO-SLIGHTLY AROUND THE ANCHORAGE
BOWL TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FACT THAT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON
THE COLDER SIDE DUE TO THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION EARLIER TODAY. WE
ALSO WANTED TO ACCOUNT FOR A SLIGHTLY STRONGER WAVE DROPPING INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST WHICH COULD HELP SNOW TO
LINGER...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CHUGACH AND TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS. ONE
AREA THAT STILL HAS SOME UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING IT IS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA. MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT
THIS AREA WITH A RELATIVE BULLS-EYE WITH SOME COLDER AIR SNEAKING
ACROSS COOK INLET A FEW HOURS EARLIER WHILE THE PRECIPITATION
REMAINS QUITE HEAVY. ONE PIECE OF GOOD NEWS WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANGING OVER TO SNOW IS THAT THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT RUNOFF AND
SHOULD ALLOW THE MANY SWOLLEN RIVERS AROUND THE AREA TO SUBSIDE
SOME.

THE OTHER BIG STORY WITH THIS STORM IS THE WINDS. AGAIN...MUCH OF
THE THINKING REMAINS THE SAME. THE VERY TIGHT SURFACE LOW WILL
DEVELOP THIS EVENING JUST SOUTHWEST OF SEWARD. IT WILL THEN TRACK
QUICKLY TOWARD CORDOVA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE GUSTY OUTFLOW
LOCATIONS WILL RESPOND IN KIND. THE AREAS THAT FAVOR NORTHERLY
WINDS (SEWARD...VALDEZ NARROWS) WILL SEE VERY GUSTY CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND LASTING INTO WED MORNING. THEN THE WESTERLY
FLOW AREAS (WHITTIER) WILL GET IN ON THE ACT. THE OTHER "HOTSPOT"
DURING THIS EVENT WILL BE THE BARREN ISLANDS AND SHELIKOF STRAIT
WHERE HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS CAN'T BE RULED OUT.

RIDGING MOVES IN LATE WED INTO THU. OUTFLOW WINDS WILL TAKE THEIR
TIME IN DIMINISHING AS COLD AIR ADVECTION BLOWS OFFSHORE. BUT THE
TREND WILL BE TOWARDS COOLER..DRIER...AND CALMER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
STRONG GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIE DOWN TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
EXITS TO CANADA. WINDS WILL LINGER MUCH LONGER ALONG THE ALASKA
PENINSULA (ESPECIALLY OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES ON THE SOUTH SIDE)
WITH DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW OUT AHEAD OF A RIDGE MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY WINDS WILL FINALLY DIE DOWN COMPLETELY. MEANWHILE
SNOW ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN RANGES WILL
DISSIPATE TONIGHT WITH THE SYSTEM PULLING AWAY...ALTHOUGH
CONTINUED UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CAUSE AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW TO LINGER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE WINTER-LIKE AIRMASS WHICH HAS MOVED IN WILL BE SHORT-LIVED.
AS THE RIDGE PASSES BY THURSDAY A STRONG FRONT CROSSING THE
BERING SEA WILL APPROACH SOUTHWEST ALASKA. MUCH WARMER
AIR...RAIN...AND STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PUSH ONSHORE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE STRONG SOUTHERLIES WILL COINCIDE WITH
SEASONAL HIGH TIDES...SO THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HIGH SURF OR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING ALONG SOUTHERLY EXPOSED COASTLINE...MOST NOTABLY
KUSKOKWIM BAY. WILL RE-EVALUATE THIS THREAT AS THE FRONT GETS
CLOSER.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC WILL CAUSE THE RIDGE
CURRENTLY OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND CENTRAL BERING SEA TO AMPLIFY AND
MOVE EASTWARD. THIS WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG
SOUTHERLY JET WHICH WILL SUPPORT A STORM FORCE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THIS FRONT WILL PROGRESS NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE BERING AND
ALEUTIANS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE OVERALL STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT OF THIS FRONT. HOWEVER...MODELS
DIFFER ON POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT
AS AN UPPER WAVE INTERACTS WITH IT. THIS WOULD TIGHTEN UP
PRESSURE GRADIENTS EVEN MORE RESULTING IN MORE LOCALIZED EVEN
STRONGER WINDS (HIGH END STORM FORCE WINDS OR EVEN APPROACHING
MINIMUM HURRICANE FORCE WINDS). WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR NEW MODEL
GUIDANCE TO SEE HOW THIS FEATURE EVOLVES AND HOW MUCH WINDS WILL
BE IMPACTED.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

BEGINNING THE EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST THURSDAY EVENING...A
TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL...WITH A FAST
MOVING STORM FORCE FRONT RACING EAST ACROSS THE BERING SEA. THIS
FRONT WILL SPREAD MOISTURE AND CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED...BUT SOME COLD AIR
DAMMING WILL KEEP PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO MIX IN BEFORE TURNING TO RAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE FRONT RAPIDLY WEAKENS...WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVING EAST SUNDAY...USHERING IN A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER ACROSS
SOUTHERN ALASKA INTO MONDAY. THEREAFTER...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH A BROAD LOW MOVING INTO THE BERING EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
LESS CERTAINTY ON HOW FAR EAST IT MOVES BY MIDWEEK...WITH SOME
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE (THE GFS) HINTING AT STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT KEEPING MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OVER THE BERING. THE ECMWF ALSO
HINTS AT THIS...BUT LESS AGGRESSIVELY WITH THE FRONT MAKING
EASTWARD PROGRESS INTO SOUTHERN ALASKA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS
FORECAST WILL TAKE AN ENSEMBLE BLENDED WPC APPROACH...WHICH KEEPS
SOME CHANCES FOR RAIN BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY INTO SOUTHERN
ALASKA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
STORMS OR HIGH WEATHER IMPACTS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY 145.
MARINE...STORM 130 131 132 138 150 173 174 175 176 177. GALE 119
120 121 127 136 137 155 160 165 170 172 178 179 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EN
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MSO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...SEB
LONG TERM...JA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1040 PM AKDT TUE SEP 29 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1031 PM     SNOW             2 NW GLEN ALPS          61.12N 149.75W
09/29/2015  M4.0 INCH                           AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SNOWFALL THROUGH 10PM. 1.37 INCHES OF STORM TOTAL
            PRECIPITATION. LIGHT SNOWFALL ONGOING.

1031 PM     SNOW             6 SW ANCHORAGE          61.15N 149.98W
09/29/2015  M0.3 INCH                           AK   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            4PM TO 10PM ACCUMULATED SNOWFALL.

1031 PM     SNOW             EAGLE RIVER             61.32N 149.57W
09/29/2015  E1.0 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            1 INCH OF SNOW AS OF 10PM.

&&

JWEGMAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1102 PM AKDT TUE SEP 29 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 PM     SNOW             8 NW HOMER              59.72N 151.68W
09/29/2015  M6.0 INCH                           AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            6.0 INCHES OF SNOW ON THE GROUND AS OF 11PM. LIGHT SNOW
            ONGOING...THOUGH HAS LET UP SOMEWHAT.

&&

JPW