Gale Warning 592, NWS Anchorage, AK

497 
FZAK51 PAFC 302359
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
359 PM AKDT WED SEP 30 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-011245-
359 PM AKDT WED SEP 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1007 MB LOW NEAR CAPE SUCKLING WILL MOVE TO NEAR GUSTAVUS THU
AFTERNOON AND WEAKEN TO 1022 MB THEN DISSIPATE THU NIGHT. A
WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF THU NIGHT THEN
TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF BY FRI AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-011245-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
359 PM AKDT WED SEP 30 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ120-011245-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
359 PM AKDT WED SEP 30 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ121-011245-
RESURRECTION BAY-
359 PM AKDT WED SEP 30 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4
FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILDING TO 2 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-011245-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
359 PM AKDT WED SEP 30 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-011245-
PORT VALDEZ-
359 PM AKDT WED SEP 30 2015

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT BY MIDDAY. SEAS BUILDING
TO 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT SUBSIDING.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-011245-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
359 PM AKDT WED SEP 30 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-011245-
VALDEZ ARM-
359 PM AKDT WED SEP 30 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-011245-
PASSAGE CANAL-
359 PM AKDT WED SEP 30 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
NEAR WHITTER. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-011245-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
359 PM AKDT WED SEP 30 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 13 FT SUBSIDING TO 9 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
6 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ131-011245-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
359 PM AKDT WED SEP 30 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 13 FT SUBSIDING TO 9 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8
FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ132-011245-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
359 PM AKDT WED SEP 30 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT N OF DANGEROUS CAPE IN
THE EVENING. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ136-011245-
CHINIAK BAY-
359 PM AKDT WED SEP 30 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING 2 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT SUBSIDING.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-011245-
MARMOT BAY-
359 PM AKDT WED SEP 30 2015

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ138-011245-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
359 PM AKDT WED SEP 30 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES DURING THE EVENING. SEAS 6
FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ139-011245-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
359 PM AKDT WED SEP 30 2015

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ140-011245-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
359 PM AKDT WED SEP 30 2015

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILDING TO 2 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-011245-
KACHEMAK BAY-
359 PM AKDT WED SEP 30 2015

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT SUBSIDING.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILDING TO 2 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 PM AKDT TUE SEP 29 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM NORTHERN
ALASKA AND DIGS ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF
ALASKA. AN IMPRESSIVE STREAM OF MOIST AIR IS SURGING NORTHWARD
FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN INTO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. THIS MOISTURE HAS
BEEN SUPPORTING HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL. TO THE WEST...AN IMPRESSIVE RIDGE COVERS
MUCH OF THE BERING...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING NEAR
KAMCHATKA. AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
CENTERED NEAR SEWARD WHICH HAS BEEN SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD RAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL TODAY. A SURFACE RIDGE IS LOCATED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS... WHICH IS HELPING TO
SUPPORT DEVELOPING GUSTY WINDS THROUGH GAPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
ALASKA AND KODIAK.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS TODAY ARE INDICATING A SIMILAR SOLUTION ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL...WITH WARM AIR PREVENTING WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL ACROSS
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE ANCHORAGE BOWL UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...MODELS ARE UNABLE TO RESOLVE WELL LOCAL EFFECTS WHICH
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WIDELY VARYING SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS ANCHORAGE
AND MATANUSKA VALLEY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR SEWARD GRADUALLY DRIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS MAINLAND
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2...WED AND
THU)...OUR EXTREMELY COMPLEX STORM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP. AS WE GO
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WE WILL SEE THE COLD AIR START TO PUSH
THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE AND HELP TO CHANGE MUCH OF THE RAIN OVER
TO SNOW FOR INLAND AREAS. THE NORTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY HAS ALREADY
TURNED TO ALL SNOW AND ARE SEEING THE WORST OF THE CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS HELPING TO BRING
VISIBILITIES DOWN TO ONE HALF MILE. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THAT AREA. MUCH OF THE FORECAST THINKING IS
STILL THE SAME FOR THE REST OF THE AREA. THE RAIN AND SNOW MIX
ACROSS MUCH OF LOWER ELEVATIONS AROUND COOK INLET WILL START TO
TURN OVER TO ALL SNOW AS WE GO INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 700 FT HAVE ALREADY TURNED TO ALL SNOW WITH THE
FREEZING LEVEL ON THE AFTERNOON SOUNDING AT 773 FT. WE DID TREND
THE ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS UP EVER-SO-SLIGHTLY AROUND THE ANCHORAGE
BOWL TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FACT THAT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON
THE COLDER SIDE DUE TO THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION EARLIER TODAY. WE
ALSO WANTED TO ACCOUNT FOR A SLIGHTLY STRONGER WAVE DROPPING INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST WHICH COULD HELP SNOW TO
LINGER...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CHUGACH AND TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS. ONE
AREA THAT STILL HAS SOME UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING IT IS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA. MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT
THIS AREA WITH A RELATIVE BULLS-EYE WITH SOME COLDER AIR SNEAKING
ACROSS COOK INLET A FEW HOURS EARLIER WHILE THE PRECIPITATION
REMAINS QUITE HEAVY. ONE PIECE OF GOOD NEWS WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANGING OVER TO SNOW IS THAT THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT RUNOFF AND
SHOULD ALLOW THE MANY SWOLLEN RIVERS AROUND THE AREA TO SUBSIDE
SOME.

THE OTHER BIG STORY WITH THIS STORM IS THE WINDS. AGAIN...MUCH OF
THE THINKING REMAINS THE SAME. THE VERY TIGHT SURFACE LOW WILL
DEVELOP THIS EVENING JUST SOUTHWEST OF SEWARD. IT WILL THEN TRACK
QUICKLY TOWARD CORDOVA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE GUSTY OUTFLOW
LOCATIONS WILL RESPOND IN KIND. THE AREAS THAT FAVOR NORTHERLY
WINDS (SEWARD...VALDEZ NARROWS) WILL SEE VERY GUSTY CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND LASTING INTO WED MORNING. THEN THE WESTERLY
FLOW AREAS (WHITTIER) WILL GET IN ON THE ACT. THE OTHER "HOTSPOT"
DURING THIS EVENT WILL BE THE BARREN ISLANDS AND SHELIKOF STRAIT
WHERE HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS CAN'T BE RULED OUT.

RIDGING MOVES IN LATE WED INTO THU. OUTFLOW WINDS WILL TAKE THEIR
TIME IN DIMINISHING AS COLD AIR ADVECTION BLOWS OFFSHORE. BUT THE
TREND WILL BE TOWARDS COOLER..DRIER...AND CALMER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
STRONG GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIE DOWN TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
EXITS TO CANADA. WINDS WILL LINGER MUCH LONGER ALONG THE ALASKA
PENINSULA (ESPECIALLY OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES ON THE SOUTH SIDE)
WITH DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW OUT AHEAD OF A RIDGE MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY WINDS WILL FINALLY DIE DOWN COMPLETELY. MEANWHILE
SNOW ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN RANGES WILL
DISSIPATE TONIGHT WITH THE SYSTEM PULLING AWAY...ALTHOUGH
CONTINUED UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CAUSE AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW TO LINGER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE WINTER-LIKE AIRMASS WHICH HAS MOVED IN WILL BE SHORT-LIVED.
AS THE RIDGE PASSES BY THURSDAY A STRONG FRONT CROSSING THE
BERING SEA WILL APPROACH SOUTHWEST ALASKA. MUCH WARMER
AIR...RAIN...AND STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PUSH ONSHORE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE STRONG SOUTHERLIES WILL COINCIDE WITH
SEASONAL HIGH TIDES...SO THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HIGH SURF OR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING ALONG SOUTHERLY EXPOSED COASTLINE...MOST NOTABLY
KUSKOKWIM BAY. WILL RE-EVALUATE THIS THREAT AS THE FRONT GETS
CLOSER.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC WILL CAUSE THE RIDGE
CURRENTLY OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND CENTRAL BERING SEA TO AMPLIFY AND
MOVE EASTWARD. THIS WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG
SOUTHERLY JET WHICH WILL SUPPORT A STORM FORCE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THIS FRONT WILL PROGRESS NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE BERING AND
ALEUTIANS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE OVERALL STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT OF THIS FRONT. HOWEVER...MODELS
DIFFER ON POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT
AS AN UPPER WAVE INTERACTS WITH IT. THIS WOULD TIGHTEN UP
PRESSURE GRADIENTS EVEN MORE RESULTING IN MORE LOCALIZED EVEN
STRONGER WINDS (HIGH END STORM FORCE WINDS OR EVEN APPROACHING
MINIMUM HURRICANE FORCE WINDS). WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR NEW MODEL
GUIDANCE TO SEE HOW THIS FEATURE EVOLVES AND HOW MUCH WINDS WILL
BE IMPACTED.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

BEGINNING THE EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST THURSDAY EVENING...A
TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL...WITH A FAST
MOVING STORM FORCE FRONT RACING EAST ACROSS THE BERING SEA. THIS
FRONT WILL SPREAD MOISTURE AND CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED...BUT SOME COLD AIR
DAMMING WILL KEEP PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO MIX IN BEFORE TURNING TO RAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE FRONT RAPIDLY WEAKENS...WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVING EAST SUNDAY...USHERING IN A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER ACROSS
SOUTHERN ALASKA INTO MONDAY. THEREAFTER...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH A BROAD LOW MOVING INTO THE BERING EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
LESS CERTAINTY ON HOW FAR EAST IT MOVES BY MIDWEEK...WITH SOME
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE (THE GFS) HINTING AT STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT KEEPING MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OVER THE BERING. THE ECMWF ALSO
HINTS AT THIS...BUT LESS AGGRESSIVELY WITH THE FRONT MAKING
EASTWARD PROGRESS INTO SOUTHERN ALASKA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS
FORECAST WILL TAKE AN ENSEMBLE BLENDED WPC APPROACH...WHICH KEEPS
SOME CHANCES FOR RAIN BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY INTO SOUTHERN
ALASKA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
STORMS OR HIGH WEATHER IMPACTS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY 145.
MARINE...STORM 130 131 132 138 150 173 174 175 176 177. GALE 119
120 121 127 136 137 155 160 165 170 172 178 179 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EN
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MSO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...SEB
LONG TERM...JA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1040 PM AKDT TUE SEP 29 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1031 PM     SNOW             2 NW GLEN ALPS          61.12N 149.75W
09/29/2015  M4.0 INCH                           AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SNOWFALL THROUGH 10PM. 1.37 INCHES OF STORM TOTAL
            PRECIPITATION. LIGHT SNOWFALL ONGOING.

1031 PM     SNOW             6 SW ANCHORAGE          61.15N 149.98W
09/29/2015  M0.3 INCH                           AK   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            4PM TO 10PM ACCUMULATED SNOWFALL.

1031 PM     SNOW             EAGLE RIVER             61.32N 149.57W
09/29/2015  E1.0 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            1 INCH OF SNOW AS OF 10PM.

&&

JWEGMAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1102 PM AKDT TUE SEP 29 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 PM     SNOW             8 NW HOMER              59.72N 151.68W
09/29/2015  M6.0 INCH                           AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            6.0 INCHES OF SNOW ON THE GROUND AS OF 11PM. LIGHT SNOW
            ONGOING...THOUGH HAS LET UP SOMEWHAT.

&&

JPW