Gale Warning 567, NWS Anchorage, AK

413 
FZAK52 PAFC 132300
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
300 PM AKDT SUN SEP 13 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-141145-
300 PM AKDT SUN SEP 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 994 MB LOW 180 NM WEST OF GAMBELL MOVES TO 40 NM NORTHWEST OF
EMMONAK AT 996 MB TONIGHT THEN MOVES INLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE ALEUTIANS THROUGH TUE. A 998 MB LOW FORMS 340 NM
SOUTHWEST OF GAMBELL TUE MORNING.

$$

PKZ150-141145-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
300 PM AKDT SUN SEP 13 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ155-141145-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
300 PM AKDT SUN SEP 13 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT. RAIN.
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ160-141145-
BRISTOL BAY-
300 PM AKDT SUN SEP 13 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT IN THE EVENING INCREASING TO 40 KT. SEAS
15 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ165-141145-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
300 PM AKDT SUN SEP 13 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT IN THE EVENING INCREASING TO 40 KT. SEAS
12 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ170-141145-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
300 PM AKDT SUN SEP 13 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ171-141145-
UNALASKA BAY-
300 PM AKDT SUN SEP 13 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ172-141145-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
300 PM AKDT SUN SEP 13 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ173-141145-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
300 PM AKDT SUN SEP 13 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ174-141145-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
300 PM AKDT SUN SEP 13 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ175-141145-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
300 PM AKDT SUN SEP 13 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ176-141145-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
300 PM AKDT SUN SEP 13 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ177-141145-
ADAK TO KISKA-
300 PM AKDT SUN SEP 13 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 11 FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ178-141145-
KISKA TO ATTU-
300 PM AKDT SUN SEP 13 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ179-141145-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
300 PM AKDT SUN SEP 13 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ180-141145-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
300 PM AKDT SUN SEP 13 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT BECOMING W 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ181-141145-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
300 PM AKDT SUN SEP 13 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ185-141145-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
300 PM AKDT SUN SEP 13 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.MON...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
410 PM AKDT SAT SEP 12 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE FLOW ALOFT IS WESTERLY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN
ALASKA AND A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC. THERE IS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA MOVING SLOWLY EAST.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL VORT-MAX IS MOVING INTO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA.
THERE IS WEAK RIDGING BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND A MUCH STRONGER LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN SEA OF OKHOTSK. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW
IS OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. THEY BEGIN TO
DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF A LOW MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN BERING
AT ABOUT 48 HOURS MODEL TIME (EARLY MONDAY MORNING). THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN MODELS ARE KEEPING A FAIRLY DISTINCT LOW THAT IS OVER
NORTON SOUND 12Z MONDAY. THE GFS SPLITS THE SURFACE LOW...WITH ONE
CENTER NEAR SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND AND THE OTHER NEAR GALENA. THE
NAM HAS THE CENTER TO THE WEST OF SAINT MATTHEW WITH A BROAD
TROUGH STRETCHING INTO WEST CENTRAL ALASKA. THESE ARE NOT HUGE
DIFFERENCES...BUT DO CREATE SOME CHALLENGES. THUS THE FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS NEAR NORMAL TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHCENTRAL WILL CONTINUE TO LIGHTEN UP
AND PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OUT OF
THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING. THERE WILL THEN BE A BIT OF A BREAK IN
THE RAIN BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST BRINGING
RAIN TO AREAS ALL AROUND THE SOUTHCENTRAL BEGINNING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE FRONT WILL TRACK FROM WEST TO EAST AND
BRING RAIN TO AREAS AROUND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE COPPER
RIVER BASIN SUNDAY NIGHT. WET WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE BUT
LIGHTEN THROUGH MONDAY. STRONGER WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED AS THE
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA BEFORE SPREADING EASTWARD
INTO THE INTERIOR BRISTOL BAY AND LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY LATER
TONIGHT. BY SUNDAY MORNING A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST COASTLINE FROM THE NORTHERN BERING SEA. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF WETTING RAINS THAT WILL SPREAD FROM THE WEST TO
THE EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA REGION. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE ALONG THE ALEUTIAN RANGE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE AIDED WITH THE OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG THE
ALEUTIAN RANGE AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRACKS FARTHER EASTWARD
AND ONSHORE WESTERLY FLOW. THE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
COASTLINE WILL INCREASE TO WESTERLY GALE FORCE WINDS BY SUNDAY AS
THE WEATHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE BERING SEA AND THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
WESTERN TO NORTHERN BERING SEA TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING GALE FORCE
WINDS THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BERING SEA AS THE WEATHER
FRONT MOVES TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COASTLINE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYNOPTIC FEATURE WILL BRING PATCHY FOG/STRATUS WITH
STEADY RAIN THROUGH REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
AN ARCTIC TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN MAINLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL
SLOWLY DESCEND TO THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND BY MID WEEK. THIS WILL
DIRECT SHORTWAVES FROM SIBERIA THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM AND
INTO THE EASTERN BERING/ALEUTIANS...CREATING A SHOWERY REGIME
UNDER PERSISTENT COLD AIR ADVECTION AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. OVER
THE MAINLAND...THE ARCTIC TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD INTO THE
END OF NEXT WEEK...PREVENTING ANY SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS OUT OF THE
AREA...BUT PRODUCING ENOUGH FORCING FOR AT LEAST A CHANCE OF RAIN WITH
LIGHT WINDS. AFTERWARDS THE MODELS STRUGGLE WITH THE EXACT
PLACEMENT OF THE TROUGH...BUT ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A
TROUGH AXIS PERSISTING OVER THE MAINLAND INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS
MEANS THAT THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A RETURN TO WARM AND SUNNY
WEATHER IN THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 130 131 150 155 160 165 170 179 180 181
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD
LONG TERM...DEK