Alert archive / Alaska / Gale Warnings in 2015

Gale Warning 560, NWS Anchorage, AK

September 9, 2015

NWS Anchorage, AK issued this gale warning at Sep 9, 2015, 4:00 AM AKDT. It was in force for 21 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Sep 9, 2015, 4:00 AM AKDT (12:00 UTC)
Expired
Sep 10, 2015, 1:00 AM AKDT
In force
21 hr
Issued by
NWS Anchorage, AK

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

523 
FZAK51 PAFC 091200
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 9 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-100030-
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 989 MB LOW 150 NM SOUTH OF SAND POINT MOVES TO NEAR EGEGIK AT
979 MB LATE WED NIGHT...THEN MOVES INTO INTERIOR ALASKA. AN
ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF MIDDAY WED...MOVES
TO THE NORTHERN GULF WED NIGHT...THEN DISSIPATES.


$$

PKZ119-100030-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 9 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT BECOMING S 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO
55 KT ALONG THE COAST EAST OF MONTAGUE ISLAND DIMINISHING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ120-100030-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 9 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ121-100030-
RESURRECTION BAY-
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 9 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS
SOUTH OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5
FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-100030-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 9 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT BUILDING TO 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE
DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-100030-
PORT VALDEZ-
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 9 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT
BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-100030-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 9 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-100030-
VALDEZ ARM-
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 9 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-100030-
PASSAGE CANAL-
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 9 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-100030-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 9 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT BECOMING E 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 FT.
RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ131-100030-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 9 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ132-100030-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 9 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SHOWERS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE EVENING.
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ136-100030-
CHINIAK BAY-
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 9 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN .
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SHOWERS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-100030-
MARMOT BAY-
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 9 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7
FT BUILDING TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE EVENING.
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-100030-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 9 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT.
SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-100030-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 9 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8
FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-100030-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 9 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 1 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT
BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-100030-
KACHEMAK BAY-
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 9 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT
BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$
2 follow-up statements
658 
FZAK51 PAFC 092303
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
303 PM AKDT WED SEP 9 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-101145-
303 PM AKDT WED SEP 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 981 MB LOW 90 NM NORTHEAST OF SAND POINT MOVES INTO INTERIOR
SOUTHWEST ALASKA THIS EVENING...THEN WEAKENS TO 1004 MB AS IT
TRACKS NORTHEAST. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF EARLY THU AND THEN DISSIPATES AS IT MOVES INLAND.

$$

PKZ119-101145-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
303 PM AKDT WED SEP 9 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT BECOMING S 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS
TO 55 KT ALONG THE COAST LATE THIS EVENING. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ120-101145-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
303 PM AKDT WED SEP 9 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ121-101145-
RESURRECTION BAY-
303 PM AKDT WED SEP 9 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5
FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHER SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-101145-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
303 PM AKDT WED SEP 9 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT NEAR
HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE LATE THIS EVENING. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-101145-
PORT VALDEZ-
303 PM AKDT WED SEP 9 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-101145-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
303 PM AKDT WED SEP 9 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-101145-
VALDEZ ARM-
303 PM AKDT WED SEP 9 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE WIND 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-101145-
PASSAGE CANAL-
303 PM AKDT WED SEP 9 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-101145-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
303 PM AKDT WED SEP 9 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ131-101145-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
303 PM AKDT WED SEP 9 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ132-101145-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
303 PM AKDT WED SEP 9 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ136-101145-
CHINIAK BAY-
303 PM AKDT WED SEP 9 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.

$$

PKZ137-101145-
MARMOT BAY-
303 PM AKDT WED SEP 9 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ138-101145-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
303 PM AKDT WED SEP 9 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9
FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-101145-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
303 PM AKDT WED SEP 9 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-101145-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
303 PM AKDT WED SEP 9 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-101145-
KACHEMAK BAY-
303 PM AKDT WED SEP 9 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$
271 
FZAK51 PAFC 100900
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
100 AM AKDT THU SEP 10 2015

UPDATED ZONE 138 

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-102130-
100 AM AKDT THU SEP 10 2015.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF
COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+ COOK INLET...

A 981 MB LOW 90 NM NORTHEAST OF SAND POINT MOVES INTO INTERIOR
SOUTHWEST ALASKA THIS EVENING...THEN WEAKENS TO 1004 MB AS IT
TRACKS NORTHEAST. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF EARLY THU AND THEN DISSIPATES AS IT MOVES INLAND.

$$

PKZ119-102130-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
100 AM AKDT THU SEP 10 2015100 AM AKDT THU SEP 10 2015
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT BECOMING S 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS
TO 55 KT ALONG THE COAST LATE THIS EVENING. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ120-102130-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
100 AM AKDT THU SEP 10 2015100 AM AKDT THU SEP 10 2015100 AM
AKDT THU SEP 10 2015EAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ121-102130-
RESURRECTION BAY-
1259 AM AKDT THU SEP 10 2015
100 AM AKDT THU SEP 10 2015UGH THURSDAY...

100 AM AKDT THU SEP 10 2015MING S 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5
FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHER SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. RAIN. 
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-102130-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
1259 AM AKDT THU SEP 10 2015

100 AM AKDT THU SEP 10 201500 AM AKDT THU SEP 10 2015 TO 35 KT.
GUSTS TO 50 KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE LATE THIS EVENING. SEAS
9 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-102130-
PORT VALDEZ-
1259 AM AKDT THU SEP 10 2015

100 AM AKDT THU SEP 10 2015SDAY... 100 AM AKDT THU SEP 10 2015S 3
FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-102130-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
1259 AM AKDT THU SEP 10 2015

100 AM AKDT THU SEP 10 2015SDAY...

100 AM AKDT THU SEP 10 2015S 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-102130-
VALDEZ ARM-
1259 AM AKDT THU SEP 10 2015

100 AM AKDT THU SEP 10 2015SDAY...

100 AM AKDT THU SEP 10 2015S 5 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE WIND 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-102130-
PASSAGE CANAL-
1259 AM AKDT THU SEP 10 2015

100 AM AKDT THU SEP 10 2015UGH THURSDAY...

100 AM AKDT THU SEP 10 2015TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-102130-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
1259 AM AKDT THU SEP 10 2015

100 AM AKDT THU SEP 10 2015100 AM AKDT THU SEP 10 2015ISHING TO
25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ131-102130-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
1259 AM AKDT THU SEP 10 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

100 AM AKDT THU SEP 10 2015 14 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ132-102130-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
1259 AM AKDT THU SEP 10 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

100 AM AKDT THU SEP 10 201514 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ136-102130-
CHINIAK BAY-
1259 AM AKDT THU SEP 10 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

100 AM AKDT THU SEP 10 20157 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.

$$

PKZ137-102130-
MARMOT BAY-
1259 AM AKDT THU SEP 10 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

100 AM AKDT THU SEP 10 2015 8 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ138-102130-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
1259 AM AKDT THU SEP 10 2015

UPDATED

100 AM AKDT THU SEP 10 2015H THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-102130-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
1259 AM AKDT THU SEP 10 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

100 AM AKDT THU SEP 10 2015TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-102130-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
1259 AM AKDT THU SEP 10 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

100 AM AKDT THU SEP 10 2015TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-102130-
KACHEMAK BAY-
1259 AM AKDT THU SEP 10 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

100 AM AKDT THU SEP 10 2015O 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this gale warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Sep 8, 4:54 PM AKDT, 11 hours 6 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 8, 4:54 PM AKDT, 11 hours 6 minutes before
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
454 PM AKDT TUE SEP 8 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
DYNAMIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL LEAD TO VERY ACTIVE WEATHER OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS FORMED JUST EAST OF THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS AT THE CENTER OF A LONG-WAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER
THE BERING SEA. A POLAR JET IS DIVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WEST-
CENTRAL BERING SEA CAUSING A SHORT-WAVE NEAR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC. THIS IN
TURN IS CAUSING A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET (130KT+) CROSSING THE
NORTH PACIFIC TO BEGIN TO BUCKLE. THESE ARE TEXTBOOK CONDITIONS
FOR SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WHICH IS LIKELY ALREADY UNDER WAY. THE
DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION OF THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR HIGH IMPACT WEATHER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

IN THE MEANTIME...THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH IS PROGRESSING NORTHEASTWARD
FROM THE EASTERN BERING INTO THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND OF ALASKA. A
SERIES OF SHORT-WAVES ROTATING INTO A VERY MOIST WEAKLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT IS LEADING TO AREAS OF SHOWERS OR RAIN ACROSS SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL BERING...WHAT HAD BEEN A STATIONARY FRONT IS NOW
HEADED SOUTHWARD AS A WEAK ARCTIC FRONT. RAIN IS FOCUSED OUT AHEAD
OF THE ARCTIC FRONT WITH SHOWERS AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS MOVING
IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE PRIOR TO DEVELOPMENT OF THE STRONG
SURFACE LOW IS TIMING AND LOCATION OF PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES ROTATE THROUGH THE
REGION. FORTUNATELY...VERY CLOSE SPACING OF WAVES MEANS PERIODS
OF RAIN WILL WORK FOR MOST PLACES. THE AVIATION TERMINAL FORECASTS
ARE MUCH MORE DIFFICULT WITH LARGE VARIATIONS IN CEILING AND
VISIBILITY AS EACH WAVE MOVES THROUGH...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
THAT REGARD.

THE GENERAL FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH THE RAPIDLY
DEEPENING LOW TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ALL SOLUTIONS HAVE NOW LOCKED
ON TO THE LOW FULLY OCCLUDING (AND BOTTOMING OUT) AROUND 980 MB
NEAR THE SOUTH END OF SHELIKOF STRAIT WEDNESDAY EVENING. MINOR
DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN BEYOND THIS POINT WITH TRACK OF THE LOW
NORTHWARD. THE RUN-TO-RUN TREND IN THE MODELS IS FOR A MORE
WESTWARD SOLUTION...WITH THE MAIN LOW CENTER CROSSING THE ALASKA
PENINSULA INTO INTERIOR BRISTOL BAY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE
NAM IS THE NOTABLE OUTLIER TO THIS IDEA IN KEEPING THE MAIN LOW
CENTER IN THE KODIAK ISLAND/BARREN ISLANDS AREA. THE INHERITED
FORECAST LARGELY CAPTURED THE BIGGER PICTURE IMPACTS OF THIS
SYSTEM. CHANGES TODAY WILL LARGELY CONSIST OF FINE-TUNING OF THE
MANY DETAILS OF THE WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE STRENGTH OF GAP
FLOW...PARTICULARLY VERY CLOSE TO THE LOW CENTER IS VERY SENSITIVE
TO SMALL CHANGES IN LOW TRACK. THUS...THIS FINE-TUNING PROCESS
WILL BE ONGOING AS THE LOW GETS CLOSER AND WE ARE ABLE TO REALLY
LOCK IN ON THE EXACT TRACK. BASED ON THIS REASONING...OVERALL
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH...WHILE CONFIDENCE IS MUCH
LOWER WITH FORECAST DETAILS NEAR THE LOW CENTER.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL AK
THROUGH TONIGHT AS SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE
ALREADY MOIST ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE IN BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE DEVELOPING LOW SOUTH OF THE AKPEN AS
IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN END OF KODIAK ISLAND WEDNESDAY EVENING
AND THEN MOVES INTO INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AK BY THURSDAY.
AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GULF ON WEDNESDAY AND
BRING POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH GALE FORCE WINDS TO AREAS
ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...RAIN
WILL TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER
INLAND LOCATIONS AS CROSS BARRIER FLOW INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT...WITH WINDS PICKING UP THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM AND OTHER
FAVORED GAPS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY IN ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST AND WILL
ALSO REDEVELOP OVER INLAND LOCATIONS AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES
INLAND AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS
WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A SOUTHERLY PUSH OF WINDS ALONG THE GULF COAST
AND THROUGH THE COOK INLET REGION AS PRESSURES BEGIN TO RISE
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A COUPLE OF WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL CROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA
TONIGHT. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT. A
MORE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SPIN UP SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE LEADING FRONT FOR THIS SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE LOW
ITSELF WILL SLIDE SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEAST AND BE NEAR KING SALMON
THURSDAY MORNING. A "WRAP AROUND" OCCLUDED FRONT WILL DEVELOP ON
THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...APPROXIMATELY
SITUATED FROM BRISTOL BAY THROUGH THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THIS
OCCLUSION WILL BREAK APART ON THURSDAY AS THE MAIN LOW MOVES NORTH
INTO THE MAINLAND. THIS MAIN LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY
NORTH AND WEAKEN INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE WEAK LOW OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND
WEAKEN TONIGHT. THE RESPONSIBLE UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
BERING AND ALEUTIANS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE LOW MOVING INTO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTH AND BREEZY.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
TROPICAL SYSTEMS KILO AND JIMENA ARE BIG QUESTION MARKS FOR THIS
FORECAST. TYPHOON KILO WILL GO EXTRA-TROPICAL AND JOIN THE ARCTIC
JET LATER THIS WEEK...THEN WORK ITS WAY INTO THE WESTERN BERING
SEA BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND THEN EASTWARD INTO MAINLAND ALASKA
EARLY NEXT WEEK. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE DETAILS
ON THIS. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM
JIMENA WILL JOIN THE "PARTY" AS THE LEADING FRONT REACHES WESTERN
ALASKA...PROBABLY LATE MONDAY OR SOMETIME EARLY TUESDAY. BEST BET
IS TO USE THE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS. WPC PREFERS THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE
AND WENT VERY STRONGLY IN THAT DIRECTION. MODELS SHOULD CATCH ON
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND THEN MORE DETAIL CAN BE ADDED TO
THE FORECAST.

MEANWHILE...EARLIER IN THE FORECAST THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN
ALASKA WILL SLIDE GRADUALLY NORTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE FLOW ALOFT TO FLATTEN (BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND LESS
CYCLONIC). THE RESULT WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE WET/WINDY
WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 119 125 130 131 132 150 155 160 165
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SEB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...RLF
LONG TERM...BL

The office that day

Everything else NWS Anchorage, AK issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Sep 9, 3:56 AM AKDTGale WarningAFC35 hr
Sep 9, 3:56 AM AKDTSmall Craft AdvisoryAFC72 hr
Sep 9, 4:00 AM AKDTSmall Craft AdvisoryAFC35 hr
Sep 9, 2:52 PM AKDTGale WarningAFC24 hr
Sep 9, 2:58 PM AKDTGale WarningAFC13 hr
Sep 9, 2:58 PM AKDTSmall Craft AdvisoryAFC61 hr
Sep 9, 3:03 PM AKDTSmall Craft AdvisoryAFC24 hr

Nearby

Gale Warnings in Alaska, 2015Every gale warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.