Gale Warning 559, NWS Anchorage, AK

871 
FZAK52 PAFC 092258
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
258 PM AKDT WED SEP 9 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-101200-
258 PM AKDT WED SEP 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 981 MB LOW 90 NM EAST OF SAND POINT MOVES INTO INTERIOR
SOUTHWEST ALASKA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTH
PACIFIC THU AND CONTINUES THROUGH FRI.

$$

PKZ150-101200-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
258 PM AKDT WED SEP 9 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ155-101200-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
258 PM AKDT WED SEP 9 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT EXCEPT W 40 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS
E. SEAS 7 FT EXCEPT 11 FT FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E. RAIN
SHOWERS.
.THU...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ160-101200-
BRISTOL BAY-
258 PM AKDT WED SEP 9 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING N 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6
FT. RAIN.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ165-101200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
258 PM AKDT WED SEP 9 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT EXCEPT W 20 KT FROM PORT MOLLER E. SEAS
10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ170-101200-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
258 PM AKDT WED SEP 9 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ171-101200-
UNALASKA BAY-
258 PM AKDT WED SEP 9 2015

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-101200-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
258 PM AKDT WED SEP 9 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ173-101200-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
258 PM AKDT WED SEP 9 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ174-101200-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
258 PM AKDT WED SEP 9 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12
FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ175-101200-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
258 PM AKDT WED SEP 9 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ176-101200-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
258 PM AKDT WED SEP 9 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ177-101200-
ADAK TO KISKA-
258 PM AKDT WED SEP 9 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ178-101200-
KISKA TO ATTU-
258 PM AKDT WED SEP 9 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ179-101200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
258 PM AKDT WED SEP 9 2015

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ180-101200-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
258 PM AKDT WED SEP 9 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 30 KT EXCEPT 20 KT S OF CAPE NEWENHAM. SEAS 7 FT.
RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT EXCEPT 20 KT S OF CAPE NEWENHAM. SEAS 7
FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ181-101200-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
258 PM AKDT WED SEP 9 2015

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT.
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ185-101200-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
258 PM AKDT WED SEP 9 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT EXCEPT 25 KT W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND.
SEAS 12 FT EXCEPT 8 FT W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND.
.THU...N WIND 35 KT EXCEPT 25 KT W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS
13 FT EXCEPT 8 FT W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND... N 20 KT W
OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

560 
FZAK52 PAFC 101159
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
359 AM AKDT THU SEP 10 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-110115-
359 AM AKDT THU SEP 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 982 MB LOW 50 NM NORTHWEST OF PORT HEIDEN MOVES INTO INTERIOR
SOUTHWEST ALASKA BY TONIGHT AND WEAKENS AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL BERING THROUGH
LATE FRI NIGHT. A WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN BERING FRI
NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-110115-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
359 AM AKDT THU SEP 10 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ155-110115-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
359 AM AKDT THU SEP 10 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES
DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT W OF THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT EXCEPT W 20 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E. GUSTS
TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE MORNING W OF THE SHUMAGIN
ISLANDS. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ160-110115-
BRISTOL BAY-
359 AM AKDT THU SEP 10 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ165-110115-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
359 AM AKDT THU SEP 10 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT EXCEPT W 20 KT FROM PORT MOLLER E. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ170-110115-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
359 AM AKDT THU SEP 10 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ171-110115-
UNALASKA BAY-
359 AM AKDT THU SEP 10 2015

.TODAY...NW WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 7 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-110115-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
359 AM AKDT THU SEP 10 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ173-110115-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
359 AM AKDT THU SEP 10 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ174-110115-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
359 AM AKDT THU SEP 10 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ175-110115-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
359 AM AKDT THU SEP 10 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ176-110115-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
359 AM AKDT THU SEP 10 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ177-110115-
ADAK TO KISKA-
359 AM AKDT THU SEP 10 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ178-110115-
KISKA TO ATTU-
359 AM AKDT THU SEP 10 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ179-110115-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
359 AM AKDT THU SEP 10 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ180-110115-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
359 AM AKDT THU SEP 10 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ181-110115-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
359 AM AKDT THU SEP 10 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ185-110115-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
359 AM AKDT THU SEP 10 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...N 25 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

541 
FZAK52 PAFC 102307
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
307 PM AKDT THU SEP 10 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-111200-
307 PM AKDT THU SEP 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL BERING THROUGH
LATE FRI NIGHT. A WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL BERING
FRI NIGHT AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES INLAND NEAR THE YUKON DELTA SAT
MORNING. A FRONT MOVES INTO THE FAR WESTERN BERING SAT AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-111200-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
307 PM AKDT THU SEP 10 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ155-111200-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
307 PM AKDT THU SEP 10 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT EXCEPT W 20 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E.
SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ160-111200-
BRISTOL BAY-
307 PM AKDT THU SEP 10 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ165-111200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
307 PM AKDT THU SEP 10 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT EXCEPT W 20 KT FROM PORT MOLLER E. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ170-111200-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
307 PM AKDT THU SEP 10 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ171-111200-
UNALASKA BAY-
307 PM AKDT THU SEP 10 2015

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-111200-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
307 PM AKDT THU SEP 10 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ173-111200-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
307 PM AKDT THU SEP 10 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ174-111200-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
307 PM AKDT THU SEP 10 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ175-111200-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
307 PM AKDT THU SEP 10 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ176-111200-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
307 PM AKDT THU SEP 10 2015

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ177-111200-
ADAK TO KISKA-
307 PM AKDT THU SEP 10 2015

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7
FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING SW 15
KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ178-111200-
KISKA TO ATTU-
307 PM AKDT THU SEP 10 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ179-111200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
307 PM AKDT THU SEP 10 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ180-111200-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
307 PM AKDT THU SEP 10 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ181-111200-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
307 PM AKDT THU SEP 10 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ185-111200-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
307 PM AKDT THU SEP 10 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...N 20 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...W 15 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
454 PM AKDT TUE SEP 8 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
DYNAMIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL LEAD TO VERY ACTIVE WEATHER OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS FORMED JUST EAST OF THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS AT THE CENTER OF A LONG-WAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER
THE BERING SEA. A POLAR JET IS DIVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WEST-
CENTRAL BERING SEA CAUSING A SHORT-WAVE NEAR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC. THIS IN
TURN IS CAUSING A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET (130KT+) CROSSING THE
NORTH PACIFIC TO BEGIN TO BUCKLE. THESE ARE TEXTBOOK CONDITIONS
FOR SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WHICH IS LIKELY ALREADY UNDER WAY. THE
DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION OF THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR HIGH IMPACT WEATHER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

IN THE MEANTIME...THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH IS PROGRESSING NORTHEASTWARD
FROM THE EASTERN BERING INTO THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND OF ALASKA. A
SERIES OF SHORT-WAVES ROTATING INTO A VERY MOIST WEAKLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT IS LEADING TO AREAS OF SHOWERS OR RAIN ACROSS SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL BERING...WHAT HAD BEEN A STATIONARY FRONT IS NOW
HEADED SOUTHWARD AS A WEAK ARCTIC FRONT. RAIN IS FOCUSED OUT AHEAD
OF THE ARCTIC FRONT WITH SHOWERS AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS MOVING
IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE PRIOR TO DEVELOPMENT OF THE STRONG
SURFACE LOW IS TIMING AND LOCATION OF PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES ROTATE THROUGH THE
REGION. FORTUNATELY...VERY CLOSE SPACING OF WAVES MEANS PERIODS
OF RAIN WILL WORK FOR MOST PLACES. THE AVIATION TERMINAL FORECASTS
ARE MUCH MORE DIFFICULT WITH LARGE VARIATIONS IN CEILING AND
VISIBILITY AS EACH WAVE MOVES THROUGH...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
THAT REGARD.

THE GENERAL FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH THE RAPIDLY
DEEPENING LOW TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ALL SOLUTIONS HAVE NOW LOCKED
ON TO THE LOW FULLY OCCLUDING (AND BOTTOMING OUT) AROUND 980 MB
NEAR THE SOUTH END OF SHELIKOF STRAIT WEDNESDAY EVENING. MINOR
DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN BEYOND THIS POINT WITH TRACK OF THE LOW
NORTHWARD. THE RUN-TO-RUN TREND IN THE MODELS IS FOR A MORE
WESTWARD SOLUTION...WITH THE MAIN LOW CENTER CROSSING THE ALASKA
PENINSULA INTO INTERIOR BRISTOL BAY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE
NAM IS THE NOTABLE OUTLIER TO THIS IDEA IN KEEPING THE MAIN LOW
CENTER IN THE KODIAK ISLAND/BARREN ISLANDS AREA. THE INHERITED
FORECAST LARGELY CAPTURED THE BIGGER PICTURE IMPACTS OF THIS
SYSTEM. CHANGES TODAY WILL LARGELY CONSIST OF FINE-TUNING OF THE
MANY DETAILS OF THE WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE STRENGTH OF GAP
FLOW...PARTICULARLY VERY CLOSE TO THE LOW CENTER IS VERY SENSITIVE
TO SMALL CHANGES IN LOW TRACK. THUS...THIS FINE-TUNING PROCESS
WILL BE ONGOING AS THE LOW GETS CLOSER AND WE ARE ABLE TO REALLY
LOCK IN ON THE EXACT TRACK. BASED ON THIS REASONING...OVERALL
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH...WHILE CONFIDENCE IS MUCH
LOWER WITH FORECAST DETAILS NEAR THE LOW CENTER.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL AK
THROUGH TONIGHT AS SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE
ALREADY MOIST ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE IN BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE DEVELOPING LOW SOUTH OF THE AKPEN AS
IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN END OF KODIAK ISLAND WEDNESDAY EVENING
AND THEN MOVES INTO INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AK BY THURSDAY.
AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GULF ON WEDNESDAY AND
BRING POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH GALE FORCE WINDS TO AREAS
ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...RAIN
WILL TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER
INLAND LOCATIONS AS CROSS BARRIER FLOW INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT...WITH WINDS PICKING UP THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM AND OTHER
FAVORED GAPS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY IN ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST AND WILL
ALSO REDEVELOP OVER INLAND LOCATIONS AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES
INLAND AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS
WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A SOUTHERLY PUSH OF WINDS ALONG THE GULF COAST
AND THROUGH THE COOK INLET REGION AS PRESSURES BEGIN TO RISE
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A COUPLE OF WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL CROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA
TONIGHT. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT. A
MORE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SPIN UP SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE LEADING FRONT FOR THIS SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE LOW
ITSELF WILL SLIDE SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEAST AND BE NEAR KING SALMON
THURSDAY MORNING. A "WRAP AROUND" OCCLUDED FRONT WILL DEVELOP ON
THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...APPROXIMATELY
SITUATED FROM BRISTOL BAY THROUGH THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THIS
OCCLUSION WILL BREAK APART ON THURSDAY AS THE MAIN LOW MOVES NORTH
INTO THE MAINLAND. THIS MAIN LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY
NORTH AND WEAKEN INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE WEAK LOW OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND
WEAKEN TONIGHT. THE RESPONSIBLE UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
BERING AND ALEUTIANS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE LOW MOVING INTO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTH AND BREEZY.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
TROPICAL SYSTEMS KILO AND JIMENA ARE BIG QUESTION MARKS FOR THIS
FORECAST. TYPHOON KILO WILL GO EXTRA-TROPICAL AND JOIN THE ARCTIC
JET LATER THIS WEEK...THEN WORK ITS WAY INTO THE WESTERN BERING
SEA BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND THEN EASTWARD INTO MAINLAND ALASKA
EARLY NEXT WEEK. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE DETAILS
ON THIS. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM
JIMENA WILL JOIN THE "PARTY" AS THE LEADING FRONT REACHES WESTERN
ALASKA...PROBABLY LATE MONDAY OR SOMETIME EARLY TUESDAY. BEST BET
IS TO USE THE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS. WPC PREFERS THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE
AND WENT VERY STRONGLY IN THAT DIRECTION. MODELS SHOULD CATCH ON
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND THEN MORE DETAIL CAN BE ADDED TO
THE FORECAST.

MEANWHILE...EARLIER IN THE FORECAST THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN
ALASKA WILL SLIDE GRADUALLY NORTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE FLOW ALOFT TO FLATTEN (BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND LESS
CYCLONIC). THE RESULT WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE WET/WINDY
WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 119 125 130 131 132 150 155 160 165
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SEB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...RLF
LONG TERM...BL