Gale Warning 496, NWS Anchorage, AK

257 
FZAK62 PAFC 222335
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
335 PM AKDT SAT AUG 22 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-231400-
335 PM AKDT SAT AUG 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF
THE ALASKA PENINSULA MON AFTERNOON. A 999 MB LOW NEAR 50N 162E
SAT NIGHT ELONGATES INTO A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
EXTREME WESTERN BERING ON MON.

$$

PKZ411-231400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
335 PM AKDT SAT AUG 22 2015

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 30 TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ412-231400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
335 PM AKDT SAT AUG 22 2015

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT INCREASING TO 25 TO 40 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 17 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ413-231400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
335 PM AKDT SAT AUG 22 2015

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT INCREASING TO 25 TO 40 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ414-231400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
335 PM AKDT SAT AUG 22 2015

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

801 
FZAK62 PAFC 231136
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
336 AM AKDT SUN AUG 23 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-240200-
336 AM AKDT SUN AUG 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 999 MB LOW NEAR 50N 162E MOVES TO 53N 166E AT 992 MB EARLY
MON...THEN STALLS AND ELONGATES THROUGH EARLY TUE.

$$

PKZ411-240200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
336 AM AKDT SUN AUG 23 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT BECOMING 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 TO
18 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ412-240200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
336 AM AKDT SUN AUG 23 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT BECOMING S 25 TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 12 TO 18 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...S WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 16 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ413-240200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
336 AM AKDT SUN AUG 23 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT INCREASING TO 25 TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 8 TO 15 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ414-240200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
336 AM AKDT SUN AUG 23 2015

.TODAY...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

320 
FZAK62 PAFC 232318
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
318 PM AKDT SUN AUG 23 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-241345-
318 PM AKDT SUN AUG 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF
MON NIGHT AND TUE. A 994 MB LOW NEAR 53N 163W WILL ELONGATE AND
STRETCH FROM THE KAMCHATKA COAST TO THE GULF OF ANADYR BY MON
NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-241345-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
318 PM AKDT SUN AUG 23 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 18 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 30 TO 40 KT BECOMING 20 TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 13 TO 18 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.THU...W WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.

$$

PKZ412-241345-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
318 PM AKDT SUN AUG 23 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT BECOMING S 30 TO 40 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...S WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 16 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 15 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ413-241345-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
318 PM AKDT SUN AUG 23 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT INCREASING TO 30 TO 40 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...S WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

PKZ414-241345-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
318 PM AKDT SUN AUG 23 2015

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

651 
FZAK62 PAFC 241112
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
312 AM AKDT MON AUG 24 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-250130-
312 AM AKDT MON AUG 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF
TONIGHT THROUGH TUE. A 990 MB LOW NEAR 59N 169E WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TONIGHT THEN ELONGATE AND STRETCH FROM
THE KAMCHATKA COAST TO THE GULF OF ANADYR BY TUE NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-250130-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
312 AM AKDT MON AUG 24 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.THU...W WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.

$$

PKZ412-250130-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
312 AM AKDT MON AUG 24 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 16 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 16 FT.
.WED...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ413-250130-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
312 AM AKDT MON AUG 24 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ414-250130-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
312 AM AKDT MON AUG 24 2015

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

318 
FZAK62 PAFC 242301
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
301 PM AKDT MON AUG 24 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-251400-
301 PM AKDT MON AUG 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF
THROUGH TUE. A 991 MB LOW NEAR 66N 180 WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND OUT
OF THE AREA BY TUE AFTERNOON. A 991 MB LOW NEAR 58N 168E WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TUE AND THEN MOVE TO 64N 176W AT
1007 MB WED AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-251400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
301 PM AKDT MON AUG 24 2015

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT. 
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.THU...S WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.

$$

PKZ412-251400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
301 PM AKDT MON AUG 24 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 16 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 16 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ413-251400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
301 PM AKDT MON AUG 24 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.
.SAT...W WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ414-251400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
301 PM AKDT MON AUG 24 2015

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
418 PM AKDT FRI AUG 21 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE MOST OBVIOUS AND IMPRESSIVE FEATURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY IS AN IMPRESSIVE LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS IN THE PROCESS
OF RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE DEVELOPING
FRONT IS LIKELY ALREADY PRODUCING GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE NORTH
WEST AND SOUTH QUADRANTS. IN A LOT OF WAYS THIS DEVELOPING STORM
HAS A LOT GOING FOR IT...WITH FAVORABLE JET STREAK DYNAMICS ALONG
WITH AN INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND A DEEP
LAYER OF WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR AVAILABLE IN THE GULF. THIS IS
RESULTING IN A SURFACE LOW THAT HAS DEEPENED ABOUT 10 MB IN THE
LAST 12 HOURS...AND WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN ANOTHER 10 BEFORE
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE HIGH 980S LATE TONIGHT.

ADDITIONALLY...BECAUSE THE UPPER TROUGH IS RAPIDLY CLOSING OFF
INTO AN UPPER LOW AT THE SAME TIME THE SURFACE LOW IS DEEPENING
RAPIDLY...A DEEP LAYER OF ASCENT IN THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM AIR
IS GENERATING AND MAINTAINING AN UNUSUAL OUTBREAK OF STRONG
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST
COASTAL WATERS OF THE GULF THAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

INLAND...THICK MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE INHIBITING SIGNIFICANT
DIURNAL HEATING IN MOST AREAS...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO STOP CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS ALREADY FORMING ALONG THE TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN
COPPER RIVER BASIN. SOME OF THE SHOWERS FROM THE NORTHWEST GULF
ARE ALSO MAKING IT ACROSS THE CHUGACH AND KENAI MOUNTAINS TOWARD
THE POPULATION CENTERS ON THE WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA AND ALSO
ANCHORAGE.

WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...WINDS ARE GENERALLY OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST AS DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE IN THE BERING SEA SLOWLY
EXPANDS EASTWARD. SOME SHOWERS ARE FORMING ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF
THE ALASKA RANGE...BUT IN GENERAL THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND IS GENERALLY UNDER A HEAVY MARITIME INFLUENCE AFTER DAYS
OF ONSHORE FLOW.

WAY OUT WEST...THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIAN REGION IS EXPERIENCING
LIGHT WINDS AND WIDESPREAD MARINE FOG/STRATUS WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE (FROM THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE)
REINFORCING LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS. MEANWHILE...THE
ALASKA PENINSULA IS SEEING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AS MASS MOVES
TOWARD THE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE GULF.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT...WITH ONLY MINOR
DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT TRACK AND PRESSURE OF THE LOW IN THE
GULF. THE GEM REGIONAL IS VERIFYING THE BEST AS OF 18Z/10 AM THIS
MORNING...AND WAS UTILIZED IN THE BEGINNING OF THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST TODAY. THE MOST APPRECIABLE MODEL DIFFERENCE AT THIS TIME
INVOLVES A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE DOWN THE
FRONT/EAST SIDE OF THE BROAD BERING SEA RIDGE AND INTO THE GULF ON
SUNDAY. NAMELY...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS
FEATURE WILL DIG OUT A LITTLE MORE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE GULF
OF ALASKA AND EVEN PULL/DEFORM THE SURFACE LOW POSITION IN THE
GULF A BIT TO THE SOUTH. THE NAM COMPLETELY MISSES THIS
FEATURE...AND AS A RESULT THE 12Z NAM WAS DISCARDED DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA THIS EVENING...WITH A SECONDARY REGION OF WEAKER ASCENT
ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN ALASKA. EVEN WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
OVERHEAD...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS...ALONG WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE KENAI PENINSULA...HAVE MANAGED TO
FORM IN ASSOCIATION WITH DIURNAL HEATING THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. MORE EXTENSIVE SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
FORMED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND. AS THE LOW DEEPENS IN THE GULF OVERNIGHT...INLAND
SHOWERS WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE OFFSHORE...
RESULTING IN INCREASING NORTHERLY GAP WINDS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
GENERAL DRYING TREND ACROSS INTERIOR ALASKA ON SATURDAY WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE COPPER BASIN...CHUGACH MOUNTAINS...AND TALKEETNA
MOUNTAINS AS MOISTURE FROM THE GULF LOW SURGES INLAND. THE LOW
WILL WEAKEN AND DRIFT EAST SUNDAY...BUT BREEZY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL
LINGER...ALONG WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY MAINLY FROM THE WESTERN COPPER
BASIN EASTWARD AS SHOWERS AND CLOUDS REMAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
AN AREA OF INSTABILITY ALONG THE ALEUTIAN RANGE WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BERING AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL
KEEP SHOWERY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...AND ALONG THE
KUSKOKWIM RIVER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN OF THE AKPEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE EASTERN BERING WILL KEEP SOME SHOWERS
ALONG THE BERING COAST TONIGHT. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
BERING...SHOWERS WILL END OVER MUCH OF THE CHAIN. THE NEXT FRONT
WILL ENTER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WITH SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND RAIN
SAT...INCREASING TO GALES ON SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST
BY MONDAY...MAKING ROOM FOR A NORTH PACIFIC RIDGE WHICH WILL BUILD
OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...THE
PREVIOUSLY ESTABLISHED GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
AS THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE GULF TRACKS FURTHER EASTWARD. THAT
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN SOME DRIER AIR ACROSS
MUCH OF THE MAINLAND...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW WEAK WAVES
COMING ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE EARLY IN THE WEEK THAT CARRY THE
POTENTIAL TO TRIGGER SOME AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS ALONG HIGHER
TERRAIN.

THE MODELS THROUGH TUESDAY ARE IN FAIR OVERALL AGREEMENT...BUT
BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY MIDWEEK. MAINLY THEY CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH
REGARDS TO THE NORTHERN ENERGY STREAM PUSHING OFF EASTERN SIBERIA
AND AN UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TUESDAY
MORNING. THE ECMWF...BEING THE MORE FAVORABLE SOLUTION...PHASES
THESE TWO SYSTEMS INTO A BROAD TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE BERING
AND INTO THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND BY THURSDAY...AND PUSHING THE
NORTH PACIFIC RIDGE FARTHER SOUTH. THE 12Z RUN OF THE GFS KEEPS
THE RIDGE FARTHER NORTH WITH THE NORTHERN ENERGY STREAM TRACKING
THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND BY FRIDAY...THEN REBUILDING
STRONGER RIDGING OVER THE BERING INTO THE WEEKEND. BY NEXT
WEEKEND...THE MODEL SPREAD GROWS EVEN LARGER WITH THE GFS KEEPING
RIDGING OVER THE BERING AND THE EC DIGGING ANOTHER TROUGH THROUGH
THE BERING FROM THE NORTH. EVEN THOUGH MODELS HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...OVERALL FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN GIVEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED MODEL DIFFERENCES FROM TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE STARTED TO AGREE ON THE REMNANTS OF ATSANI
TRACKING FARTHER WEST OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS THAN PREVIOUSLY
DEPICTED...KEEPING THE SYSTEM WEST OF THE DATE LINE AND SOUTH OF
50N THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 119 120 130 131 132 150.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...AD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JA
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DS
LONG TERM...TP