Gale Warning 487, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Jul 17, 2015, 3:01 PM AKDT (23:01 UTC)

Expired

Jul 18, 2015, 3:45 AM AKDT

In force

13 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

693 
FZAK52 PAFC 172301
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
301 PM AKDT FRI JUL 17 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-181145-
301 PM AKDT FRI JUL 17 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 989 MB LOW 470 NM SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA WILL MOVE TO 250 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA AT 992 MB SAT AFTERNOON THEN TO 120 NM WEST
OF SHEMYA AT 995 MB SUN AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE EASTERN BERING SAT NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-181145-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
301 PM AKDT FRI JUL 17 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ155-181145-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
301 PM AKDT FRI JUL 17 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ160-181145-
BRISTOL BAY-
301 PM AKDT FRI JUL 17 2015

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ165-181145-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
301 PM AKDT FRI JUL 17 2015

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ170-181145-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
301 PM AKDT FRI JUL 17 2015

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ171-181145-
UNALASKA BAY-
301 PM AKDT FRI JUL 17 2015

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-181145-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
301 PM AKDT FRI JUL 17 2015

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ173-181145-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
301 PM AKDT FRI JUL 17 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ174-181145-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
301 PM AKDT FRI JUL 17 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ175-181145-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
301 PM AKDT FRI JUL 17 2015

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ176-181145-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
301 PM AKDT FRI JUL 17 2015

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ177-181145-
ADAK TO KISKA-
301 PM AKDT FRI JUL 17 2015

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9
FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ178-181145-
KISKA TO ATTU-
301 PM AKDT FRI JUL 17 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT. RAIN. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ179-181145-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
301 PM AKDT FRI JUL 17 2015

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ180-181145-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
301 PM AKDT FRI JUL 17 2015

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT.
PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ181-181145-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
301 PM AKDT FRI JUL 17 2015

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ185-181145-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
301 PM AKDT FRI JUL 17 2015

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Jul 17, 5:00 AM AKDT, 10 hours 1 minute earlier.

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKDT FRI JUL 17 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

THE SURFACE LOW MADE LANDFALL NEAR DILLINGHAM THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH AND INLAND. ADDITIONALLY THE SURFACE FRONT
STRETCHING FROM THIS LOW...ACROSS SOUTHWEST...SOUTH CENTRAL AND
THE GULF COAST WILL ROTATE INLAND TODAY AS WELL WITH STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PUSHING IN OVER THE AREA. WIDESPREAD RAIN
WILL TRANSITION OVER TO SHOWERS WITH SIGNIFICANT OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT IN UPSLOPE AREAS. SEVERAL SMALLER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
WILL ROTATE IN FROM THE WEST AS THE LARGER SCALE UPPER LEVEL LOW
DRIFTS NORTH AND WEAKENS TO BE REPLACED BY MORE DIFFUSE WESTERLY
FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MIDTERM.
DETAILS OF THE SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVES AND EDDIES EMBEDDED IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HOWEVER REMAIN HARD TO PIN DOWN...ESPECIALLY
THIS WEEKEND AS THE FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS WESTERLY AND WEAKENS PRIOR
TO THE BUILDING OF THE RIDGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS WETTING RAINS CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH. WHILE PRECIPITATION
WILL CHANGE OVER TO A MORE SHOWERY CHARACTER BEHIND THE FRONT...THESE
SHOWERS WILL BE ABUNDANT AND LONG LIVED BRINGING ADDITIONAL WETTING
RAINS TO MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STRONG WINDS WILL GRADUALLY EASE ACROSS THE
AREA AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND THOUGH REMAIN BREEZY THE LONGEST
CHANNELED GAPS IN THE TERRAIN SUCH AS TURNAGAIN ARM...THE KNIK
RIVER VALLEY AND THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. ISOLATED WET THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN OVER AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

THE UPPER LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED TROPICAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD SOUTHEAST ALASKA TODAY WHILE THE
UNSEASONABLY STRONG STORM EXITS NORTHWARD TOWARD INTERIOR ALASKA.
THIS HOWEVER IS NOT THE END OF THE HEAVY RAIN OR STRONG WINDS. AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN ALASKA A SERIES
OF SHORT-WAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW AND
INTO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT.
COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL ACCOMPANY THESE WAVES LEADING TO STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES THROUGHOUT THE VERTICAL COLUMN. LASTLY...STRONG SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW (ENHANCED BY PRESSURE RISES AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE EXITING LOW) WILL INTENSIFY RAINFALL
RATES IN UPSLOPE AREAS.

ALL OF THESE FACTORS PUT TOGETHER WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN
THROUGH THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY FOR WEST FACING SLOPES. AREAS
MOST LIKELY TO SEE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN INCLUDE ANCHORAGE...THE
MATANUSKA VALLEY...THE SUSITNA VALLEY...AND EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND. WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS...THE RAIN WILL BE
WIND DRIVEN AT TIMES.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO EXIT TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY
WHICH GENERALLY SUPPORTS A WARMING AND DRYING TREND. HOWEVER...
GUIDANCE INDICATES THERE MAY BE ONE LAST UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH
BEFORE A SIGNIFICANT UPPER RIDGE ARRIVES ON SUNDAY. THUS SATURDAY
STILL LOOKS FAIRLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
OVER INTERIOR SOUTHCENTRAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

RAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY EXCEPT SHOWERS FROM ANIAK WEST. ISOLATED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
KILBUCKS. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TONIGHT AND THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS SATURDAY. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM THE
WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WILL BE DRY AFTER
SOME SHOWERS TODAY...WITH PATCHY FOG AND PARTIAL CLEARING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...SUN THROUGH THU)...

THIS PERIOD WILL LARGELY FEATURE A RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE MAINLAND
WITH A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW EMBEDDED IN A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL ENERGY SLIDING
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL BEFORE THE RIDGE BUILDS IN TO TRIGGER SOME
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE EASTERN COPPER RIVER BASIN.
OTHER THAN THAT...MOST PLACES WILL SEE DRYING CONDITIONS WITH JUST
SOME ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS. OUT WEST...THE LOW OVER THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL HAVE A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED
THROUGH THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. THIS WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORECAST AS WELL AS SOUTHERLY SMALL CRAFT WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE BUILDS OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A SHORT STRETCH OF DRIER AND SUNNIER
WEATHER THAN WE HAVE EXPERIENCED OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.

BY TUESDAY...THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL ACCELERATE OVER THE NORTH
PACIFIC AND HELP TO MAKE OUR PATTERN MORE PROGRESSIVE ONCE AGAIN.
IT WILL SERVE TO FERRY THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN LOW ACROSS THE BERING
TOWARD THE MAINLAND BY WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE IN SOLID AGREEMENT
THROUGH THIS TIME IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. HOWEVER...THERE ARE
SOME SMALL FEATURES THAT ARE HANDLED DIFFERENTLY. THESE SMALL
FEATURES...WHEN EXTRAPOLATED OUT TO DAYS 6-8 IN THE FORECAST...CAN
LEAD TO KEY DIFFERENCES IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. SOME OF THOSE
DIFFERENCES ARE IN HOW THE ENERGY SLIDING THROUGH COOK INLET ON
SUNDAY INTERACTS WITH A CUT-OFF LOW IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
ALASKA. ANOTHER DIFFERENCE IS HANDLING A CUT-OFF LOW SPINNING OVER
NORTH CENTRAL CANADA. BECAUSE OF THESE DIFFERENCES...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE SUBSIDES LATER IN THE PERIOD. BUT THE BOTTOM LINE IS
THAT IT DOES APPEAR THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AND ONCE AGAIN OPENS THE DOOR FOR PRECIPITATION TO RETURN TO
THE MAINLAND.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 176 177 178 411.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JER
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DS
LONG TERM...MSO

Gale Warnings in Alaska, 2015Every gale warning in 2015

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.