Gale Warning 474, NWS Anchorage, AK

976 
FZAK62 PAFC 181142
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
342 AM AKDT SAT JUL 18 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-190145-
342 AM AKDT SAT JUL 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 992 MB LOW NEAR 50N 167E WILL MOVE TO 52N 171E THIS EVENING. THE
LOW WILL REMAIN IN THAT GENERAL AREA AND WEAKEN TO 997 MB THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE ASSOCIATED
FRONT AND TRACK TO 49N 177W AT 1005 MB SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN BERING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

$$

PKZ411-190145-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
342 AM AKDT SAT JUL 18 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.
.MON...SE WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.TUE...W WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ412-190145-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
342 AM AKDT SAT JUL 18 2015

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.

$$

PKZ413-190145-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
342 AM AKDT SAT JUL 18 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING 20 TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

PKZ414-190145-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
342 AM AKDT SAT JUL 18 2015

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.MON...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.

$$

051 
FZAK62 PAFC 182302
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
302 PM AKDT SAT JUL 18 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-191400-
302 PM AKDT SAT JUL 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 992 MB LOW NEAR 50N 171E WILL MOVE TO 53N 170E AT 994 MB SUN
AFTERNOON...THEN TO 54N 172E AT 1000 MB MON AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA THROUGH SUN...THEN
WEAKEN MON.

$$

PKZ411-191400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
302 PM AKDT SAT JUL 18 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.MON...SE WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...W WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

PKZ412-191400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
302 PM AKDT SAT JUL 18 2015

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.

$$

PKZ413-191400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
302 PM AKDT SAT JUL 18 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ414-191400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
302 PM AKDT SAT JUL 18 2015

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.

$$

387 
FZAK62 PAFC 191304
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
347 AM AKDT SUN JUL 19 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-200200-
347 AM AKDT SUN JUL 19 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 992 MB LOW NEAR 53N 171E WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND
WEAKEN TO 997 MB EARLY MON MORNING...THEN MOVE TO 58N 177E AT
1003 MB EARLY TUE MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS MON MORNING...THEN MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL BERING
BY EARLY TUE MORNING.

$$

PKZ411-200200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
347 AM AKDT SUN JUL 19 2015

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...W WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

PKZ412-200200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
347 AM AKDT SUN JUL 19 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 10 TO 20 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.

$$

PKZ413-200200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
347 AM AKDT SUN JUL 19 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 15 TO 25 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ414-200200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
347 AM AKDT SUN JUL 19 2015

.TODAY...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.

$$

273 
FZAK62 PAFC 192302
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
302 PM AKDT SUN JUL 19 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-201415-
302 PM AKDT SUN JUL 19 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 994 MB LOW NEAR 52N 170E WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND
WEAKEN TO 999 MB THROUGH MON...THEN TRACK TO 59N 179E AT 1001 MB
TUE AFTERNOON. AN ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS MON...THEN MOVE ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA INTO
SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA TUE.

$$

PKZ411-201415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
302 PM AKDT SUN JUL 19 2015

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...W WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.

$$

PKZ412-201415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
302 PM AKDT SUN JUL 19 2015

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.

$$

PKZ413-201415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
302 PM AKDT SUN JUL 19 2015

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.

$$

PKZ414-201415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
302 PM AKDT SUN JUL 19 2015

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKDT FRI JUL 17 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

THE SURFACE LOW MADE LANDFALL NEAR DILLINGHAM THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH AND INLAND. ADDITIONALLY THE SURFACE FRONT
STRETCHING FROM THIS LOW...ACROSS SOUTHWEST...SOUTH CENTRAL AND
THE GULF COAST WILL ROTATE INLAND TODAY AS WELL WITH STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PUSHING IN OVER THE AREA. WIDESPREAD RAIN
WILL TRANSITION OVER TO SHOWERS WITH SIGNIFICANT OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT IN UPSLOPE AREAS. SEVERAL SMALLER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
WILL ROTATE IN FROM THE WEST AS THE LARGER SCALE UPPER LEVEL LOW
DRIFTS NORTH AND WEAKENS TO BE REPLACED BY MORE DIFFUSE WESTERLY
FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MIDTERM.
DETAILS OF THE SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVES AND EDDIES EMBEDDED IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HOWEVER REMAIN HARD TO PIN DOWN...ESPECIALLY
THIS WEEKEND AS THE FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS WESTERLY AND WEAKENS PRIOR
TO THE BUILDING OF THE RIDGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS WETTING RAINS CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH. WHILE PRECIPITATION
WILL CHANGE OVER TO A MORE SHOWERY CHARACTER BEHIND THE FRONT...THESE
SHOWERS WILL BE ABUNDANT AND LONG LIVED BRINGING ADDITIONAL WETTING
RAINS TO MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STRONG WINDS WILL GRADUALLY EASE ACROSS THE
AREA AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND THOUGH REMAIN BREEZY THE LONGEST
CHANNELED GAPS IN THE TERRAIN SUCH AS TURNAGAIN ARM...THE KNIK
RIVER VALLEY AND THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. ISOLATED WET THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN OVER AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

THE UPPER LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED TROPICAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD SOUTHEAST ALASKA TODAY WHILE THE
UNSEASONABLY STRONG STORM EXITS NORTHWARD TOWARD INTERIOR ALASKA.
THIS HOWEVER IS NOT THE END OF THE HEAVY RAIN OR STRONG WINDS. AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN ALASKA A SERIES
OF SHORT-WAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW AND
INTO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT.
COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL ACCOMPANY THESE WAVES LEADING TO STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES THROUGHOUT THE VERTICAL COLUMN. LASTLY...STRONG SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW (ENHANCED BY PRESSURE RISES AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE EXITING LOW) WILL INTENSIFY RAINFALL
RATES IN UPSLOPE AREAS.

ALL OF THESE FACTORS PUT TOGETHER WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN
THROUGH THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY FOR WEST FACING SLOPES. AREAS
MOST LIKELY TO SEE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN INCLUDE ANCHORAGE...THE
MATANUSKA VALLEY...THE SUSITNA VALLEY...AND EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND. WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS...THE RAIN WILL BE
WIND DRIVEN AT TIMES.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO EXIT TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY
WHICH GENERALLY SUPPORTS A WARMING AND DRYING TREND. HOWEVER...
GUIDANCE INDICATES THERE MAY BE ONE LAST UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH
BEFORE A SIGNIFICANT UPPER RIDGE ARRIVES ON SUNDAY. THUS SATURDAY
STILL LOOKS FAIRLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
OVER INTERIOR SOUTHCENTRAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

RAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY EXCEPT SHOWERS FROM ANIAK WEST. ISOLATED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
KILBUCKS. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TONIGHT AND THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS SATURDAY. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM THE
WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WILL BE DRY AFTER
SOME SHOWERS TODAY...WITH PATCHY FOG AND PARTIAL CLEARING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...SUN THROUGH THU)...

THIS PERIOD WILL LARGELY FEATURE A RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE MAINLAND
WITH A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW EMBEDDED IN A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL ENERGY SLIDING
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL BEFORE THE RIDGE BUILDS IN TO TRIGGER SOME
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE EASTERN COPPER RIVER BASIN.
OTHER THAN THAT...MOST PLACES WILL SEE DRYING CONDITIONS WITH JUST
SOME ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS. OUT WEST...THE LOW OVER THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL HAVE A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED
THROUGH THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. THIS WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORECAST AS WELL AS SOUTHERLY SMALL CRAFT WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE BUILDS OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A SHORT STRETCH OF DRIER AND SUNNIER
WEATHER THAN WE HAVE EXPERIENCED OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.

BY TUESDAY...THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL ACCELERATE OVER THE NORTH
PACIFIC AND HELP TO MAKE OUR PATTERN MORE PROGRESSIVE ONCE AGAIN.
IT WILL SERVE TO FERRY THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN LOW ACROSS THE BERING
TOWARD THE MAINLAND BY WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE IN SOLID AGREEMENT
THROUGH THIS TIME IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. HOWEVER...THERE ARE
SOME SMALL FEATURES THAT ARE HANDLED DIFFERENTLY. THESE SMALL
FEATURES...WHEN EXTRAPOLATED OUT TO DAYS 6-8 IN THE FORECAST...CAN
LEAD TO KEY DIFFERENCES IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. SOME OF THOSE
DIFFERENCES ARE IN HOW THE ENERGY SLIDING THROUGH COOK INLET ON
SUNDAY INTERACTS WITH A CUT-OFF LOW IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
ALASKA. ANOTHER DIFFERENCE IS HANDLING A CUT-OFF LOW SPINNING OVER
NORTH CENTRAL CANADA. BECAUSE OF THESE DIFFERENCES...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE SUBSIDES LATER IN THE PERIOD. BUT THE BOTTOM LINE IS
THAT IT DOES APPEAR THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AND ONCE AGAIN OPENS THE DOOR FOR PRECIPITATION TO RETURN TO
THE MAINLAND.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 176 177 178 411.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JER
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DS
LONG TERM...MSO