Gale Warning 439, NWS Anchorage, AK

121 
FZAK52 PAFC 241113
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
313 AM AKDT SUN MAY 24 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-250015-
313 AM AKDT SUN MAY 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 989 MB LOW 190 NM WEST OF SAINT PAUL ISLAND SUN MORNING DISSIPATES
BY SUN EVENING. BY SUN AFTERNOON A 978 MB LOW MOVES 280 NM WEST OF
SHEMYA BEFORE MOVING 160 NM NORTH OF SHEMYA AT 978 MB MON AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW MOVES 290 NM NORTH OF SHEMYA AT 986 MB TUE AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-250015-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
313 AM AKDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ155-250015-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
313 AM AKDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ160-250015-
BRISTOL BAY-
313 AM AKDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ165-250015-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
313 AM AKDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ170-250015-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
313 AM AKDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ171-250015-
UNALASKA BAY-
313 AM AKDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2
FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ172-250015-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
313 AM AKDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ173-250015-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
313 AM AKDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ174-250015-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
313 AM AKDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ175-250015-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
313 AM AKDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ176-250015-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
313 AM AKDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ177-250015-
ADAK TO KISKA-
313 AM AKDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ178-250015-
KISKA TO ATTU-
313 AM AKDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ179-250015-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
313 AM AKDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ180-250015-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
313 AM AKDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ181-250015-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
313 AM AKDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ185-250015-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
313 AM AKDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
412 PM AKDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE WHICH HAS BEEN HOLDING OVER THE GULF/EASTERN
ALASKA OVER THE LAST WEEK OR SO HAS MOVED A LITTLE BIT TO THE
EAST. THIS HAS ALLOWED A COUPLE OF TROUGHS STRETCHING SE ACROSS
SW ALASKA AND WESTERN GULF TO PUSH THE MEAN BAROCLINIC ZONE
FURTHER EAST AND BRING CLOUDS AND RAIN ACROSS THE KENAI PENINSULA
AND COOK INLET REGION. THE FURTHER WEST MOST TROUGH IS BRINGING
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE SW MAINLAND...MOST NOTABLY THE BRISTOL BAY
REGION. WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS WITH AREAS OF RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER THE THE BERING SEA...ALEUTIANS...AND AK PEN.
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EVIDENT ACROSS THE AK PEN AND EASTERN
BERING SEA WITH BRISK WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS. OLD
TYPHOON DOLPHIN OVER THE WEST CENTRAL BERING SEA HAS BOTTOMED OUT
AND SHOULD BE SLOWLY WEAKENING. THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES
HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE COPPER RIVER BASIN THIS EVENING AS
GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARM TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
IN ADDITION TO THE DRY CONDITIONS...PRESSURE RISES ALONG THE COAST
AND FALLS WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE INTERIOR IS INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN THIS EVENING.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION (SHORT TERM)...
THE MODELS ARE REASONABLE AND IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL FEATURES AS WELL AS THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN
THROUGH MONDAY. ALL CONTINUE TO TO SHOW A WEAKENING OF THE GULF
HIGH AND AN INCREASE IN COOL AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW MOVING INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL. OUT WEST...MODELS AGREE ON THE WEAKENING AND
LIFTING NORTH OF THE CURRENT BERING SEA LOW (OLD TYPHOON DOLPHIN)
AND THE STRENGTHENING OF A NEW CENTER MOVING SOUTH OF KAMCHATKA
TONIGHT AND INTO THE BERING SEA SUN NIGHT/MON. OVERALL FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REMAINS ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A MOIST AND STABLE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH AND EAST
ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE AND/OR
DEVELOP THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ESPECIALLY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
KENAI PENINSULA...ANCHORAGE...AND THE MAT-SU VALLEY. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE SUNDAY ESPECIALLY FROM ANCHORAGE
SOUTH BEFORE LIGHT RAIN IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT TOWARD ANCHORAGE AT LEAST FOR A BRIEF TIME. BY
MONDAY...A BIT MORE INSTABILITY WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND
WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE PRESENT WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHCENTRAL
MAINLAND FOR MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN BERING PUSHES A FRONT INTO THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND TONIGHT. GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WILL TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. NUMEROUS PREFRONTAL RAIN
SHOWERS ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL SPREAD EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE
MAIN FRONT MOVES INLAND. ON SUNDAY...THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE
REGION AND WEAKENS THROUGH MONDAY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING
NEAR KODIAK MOVES A SHORTWAVE INTO BRISTOL BAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE BERING SLOWLY MOVES A
FRONT FROM THE EASTERN BERING INTO THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND
TONIGHT. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...A SHORTWAVE QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE
WESTERN BERING TONIGHT AND MERGES WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW. GUSTY
GRADIENT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE ALEUTIANS THIS EVENING AND THEN TAPER OFF ON SUNDAY AS THE
MAIN LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN BERING. THE NEXT STRONG LOW
DEVELOPS SUNDAY NIGHT MOVING INTO THE WESTERN BERING EARLY MONDAY.
THIS SYSTEM SPINS IN PLACE ON MONDAY SENDING ANOTHER FRONT TOWARD
THE CENTRAL BERING.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT THAT A RIDGE OF VARYING STRENGTH WILL
PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN AK MAINLAND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE HIGH WILL BRING
RAIN TO THE NORTH GULF COAST AND SOME INLAND SHOWERS THROUGH TUE.
AS THE RIDGE INCREASES IN STRENGTH IT WILL CUT OFF THE ONSHORE
FLOW AND PRECIPITATION TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU. A SLIGHT WEAKENING
OF THE RIDGE WILL AGAIN ALLOW ONSHORE FLOW TO BRING RAIN TO THE
COAST AND SHOWERS TO INLAND AREAS AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE BERING. THIS
WILL KEEP RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND SW AK THROUGH
NEXT WEEK...ENHANCED AT THE END OF THE WEEK AS A LOW AND
ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE CHAIN.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 173 175 176 177 178 180 181.
FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING 141.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KH
LONG TERM...DS