Gale Warning 417, NWS Anchorage, AK

185 
FZAK51 PAFC 092300
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
300 PM AKDT SAT MAY 9 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-101215-
300 PM AKDT SAT MAY 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 999 MB LOW 150 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY WILL DISSIPATE IN
THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA SUN AFTERNOON. A 998 MB LOW 90 NM SOUTH
OF SAND POINT SUN AFTERNOON WILL TRACK TO 270 NM SOUTH OF
MIDDLETON ISLAND AT 1004 MB MON AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-101215-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
300 PM AKDT SAT MAY 9 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ120-101215-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
300 PM AKDT SAT MAY 9 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ121-101215-
RESURRECTION BAY-
300 PM AKDT SAT MAY 9 2015

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-101215-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
300 PM AKDT SAT MAY 9 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-101215-
PORT VALDEZ-
300 PM AKDT SAT MAY 9 2015

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-101215-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
300 PM AKDT SAT MAY 9 2015

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-101215-
VALDEZ ARM-
300 PM AKDT SAT MAY 9 2015

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED AND THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-101215-
PASSAGE CANAL-
300 PM AKDT SAT MAY 9 2015

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-101215-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
300 PM AKDT SAT MAY 9 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-101215-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
300 PM AKDT SAT MAY 9 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ132-101215-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
300 PM AKDT SAT MAY 9 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT EXCEPT N 20 KT N OF DANGEROUS CAPE. 
SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. N OF DANGEROUS
CAPE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ136-101215-
CHINIAK BAY-
300 PM AKDT SAT MAY 9 2015

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-101215-
MARMOT BAY-
300 PM AKDT SAT MAY 9 2015

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ138-101215-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
300 PM AKDT SAT MAY 9 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-101215-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
300 PM AKDT SAT MAY 9 2015

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-101215-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
300 PM AKDT SAT MAY 9 2015

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-101215-
KACHEMAK BAY-
300 PM AKDT SAT MAY 9 2015

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
459 AM AKDT SAT MAY 9 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF IS BEGINNING TO WRAP UP
AS IT BECOMES A CLOSED LOW BY THIS AFTERNOON. ABUNDANT RAINFALL
CONTINUES FROM THIS SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF COAST...WITH AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN FROM THE KENAI PENINSULA INTO THE SUSITNA VALLEY. THE
SOUTHERLY FETCH FROM THIS SYSTEM CAN BE SEEN DETERIORATING OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR RAINFALL TO
DIMINISH TODAY. TO THE WEST OF THIS LOW...WEAK RIDGING CONTINUES
TO BRING STRATUS FROM THE EASTERN BERING INTO THE ALASKA PENINSULA
AND KUSKOKWIM DELTA. THIS RIDGING IS QUICKLY DISSIPATING IN
ADVANCE OF THE ANOTHER ALEUTIAN LOW THAT IS PROGRESSING TOWARDS
THE CENTRAL BERING. THIS SYSTEM...WHILE DISSIPATING...IS BRINGING
GALE FORCE WINDS AND RAIN TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS...AND IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND CENTRAL BERING
TODAY.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODEL AGREEMENT HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE YESTERDAY WITH
BOTH THE LOW POSITION OF THE GULF LOW AS IT BECOMES NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN GULF THIS EVENING...AND THE INCOMING
ALEUTIAN LOW AS IT ELONGATES OVER THE BERING. THERE IS NOW MUCH
HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH A FURTHER NORTH SOLUTION INTO THE BERING
TODAY...WITH ALL MODELS NOW BRING THE CIRCULATION NORTH OF THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS. THE EC REMAINS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION FOR THIS
SYSTEM DUE TO ITS GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. THERE ALSO IS MUCH
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A SECONDARY LOW THAT WILL DEVELOP JUST SOUTH
OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS ON SUNDAY THAT WILL APPROACH THE GULF
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE
YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA IS BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF
RAIN INTO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA THIS MORNING. THE RAIN SHOULD
DIMINISH BY THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL REMAIN
OVER THE REGION IS QUITE COOL AND WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS LOW WILL ALSO BRING SOME
GUSTY WINDS THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN AND SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH
TO KEEP THE SEA BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING TODAY IN SEWARD AND HOMER.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE NEXT 48 HOURS WILL BE FAIRLY BENIGN OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA AS
THE LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND WEAKENS AND MOVES EASTWARD AND A
RIDGE WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION TODAY WILL BE LIMITED
TO AREAS EAST OF THE KILBUCK/AHKLUN MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE ALASKA
AND ALEUTIAN RANGES. AS THE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH...PRECIPITATION
WILL END OVER MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR RIGHT ALONG THE ALEUTIAN
RANGE ON SUNDAY.

BEHIND THE RIDGE...A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW MOVING NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT NUNIVAK
ISLAND AND THE NORTHWESTERN KUSKOKWIM COAST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
AT THE SAME TIME THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVING SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WILL BRING AN ADDITIONAL SURGE OF MOIST AIR NORTHWARD
INTO THE FRONT. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE FAIRLY CONTINUOUS RAIN FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN KUSKOKWIM COAST ON SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS ALONG THE
BRISTOL BAY COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND ALASKA PENINSULA WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE EASTWARD MOVING RIDGE THIS MORNING AS THE LOW
OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BERING SEA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD TO
NEAR GAMBELL BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN AND PRIBILOF
ISLANDS TODAY...BRINGING AREAS OF STEADY RAIN. THE FRONT WILL
BECOME SEMI-STATIONARY AND ELONGATE NORTH-SOUTH FROM NUNIVAK
ISLAND TO UNIMAK ISLAND LATE TONIGHT. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE
NORTH PACIFIC LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A DEEP SOURCE OF MOISTURE FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC WITH
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATING PW VALUES OVER 200
PERCENT OF NORMAL. THIS WILL PROVIDE AMPLE MOISTURE FOR CONTINUOUS
RAIN ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE HEAVIEST TOTALS
FROM DUTCH HARBOR EASTWARD TO SAND POINT. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT TODAY THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS SHOULD SEE MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS.

WINDS ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE AT MINIMAL GALES THIS MORNING IN
THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BEFORE DECREASING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON TO
BELOW GALE FORCE. AS THE SECOND LOW APPROACHES THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTH...WINDS SHOULD INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIAN CHAIN BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW GALE FORCE. AS A WEAK
RIDGE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT...THE FLOW WILL TURN WESTERLY AND
WILL GENERALLY STAY BELOW 25 KTS WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
MOST OF THE BERING SEA AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF WILL REMAIN
ALMOST STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE LOSING SUPPORT AND
DISSIPATING. THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAIN ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
SHOWERY PRECIPITATION FOR THE INLAND AREAS DUE TO DOWNSLOPING
THROUGH MONDAY. BY TUESDAY AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHCENTRAL REGION FROM THE WEST. BY
THURSDAY THIS RIDGE WILL DEVELOP INTO AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED HIGH
OVER THE INTERIOR. THERE WILL BE WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH THIS
RIDGE WITH DIURNAL SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACCOMPANIED BY A THERMAL TROUGH FORMING IN THE INTERIOR HEADING
INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS WERE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH THESE FEATURES AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE
AVERAGE.

ON THE BERING SEA SIDE...THE STRONG ZONAL JET STREAM OVER THE WESTERN
TO CENTRAL ALEUTIANS CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING
TO A SOUTHERLY MERIDIONAL FLOW BY TUESDAY. THIS COINCIDES WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. A GALE
FORCE LOW WILL BE REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE BY MONDAY BEFORE
BECOMING A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BERING SEA. THIS
WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERY PRECIPITATION BY
MIDWEEK. DOWNSTREAM...AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE BUILDS THROUGH THE
EASTERN BERING/ALEUTIANS BY TUESDAY AND MOVES EASTWARD. THIS WILL
BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO STRUGGLE WITH THE PLACEMENT/STRENGTH OF THIS NORTH PACIFIC LOW
APPROACHING THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS BY THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE WARNING 170
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DEK
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...RF
LONG TERM...PLD