Gale Warning 31, NWS Anchorage, AK

538 
FZAK51 PAFC 011249 CCA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
349 AM AKST THU JAN 1 2015

CORRECTED TYPO ZONE 138

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-020215-
349 AM AKST THU JAN 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 1000 MB LOW 300 NM SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND WILL MOVE TO 185 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND LATE THIS MORNING AT 992 MB THEN
MOVE INLAND NEAR SITKA WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH LATE THIS
EVENING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST
THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT.

$$

PKZ119-020215-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
349 AM AKST THU JAN 1 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT BY LATE MORNING. SEAS
8 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ120-020215-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
349 AM AKST THU JAN 1 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ121-020215-
RESURRECTION BAY-
349 AM AKST THU JAN 1 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT BY LATE MORNING. SEAS 3
FT BUILDING TO 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ125-020215-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
349 AM AKST THU JAN 1 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF NORTHERN BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE
MORNING. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-020215-
PORT VALDEZ-
349 AM AKST THU JAN 1 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT BY LATE MORNING. GUSTS
TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT. DENSE FOG
DURING THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ127-020215-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
349 AM AKST THU JAN 1 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-020215-
VALDEZ ARM-
349 AM AKST THU JAN 1 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-020215-
PASSAGE CANAL-
349 AM AKST THU JAN 1 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 35 KT NEAR WHITTIER INCREASING TO 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 40 KT NEAR WHITTIER DURING THE MORNING. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO
3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-020215-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
349 AM AKST THU JAN 1 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY NEAR KAMISHAK
BAY.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING NEAR
KAMISHAK BAY.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-020215-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
349 AM AKST THU JAN 1 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ132-020215-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
349 AM AKST THU JAN 1 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ136-020215-
CHINIAK BAY-
349 AM AKST THU JAN 1 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ137-020215-
MARMOT BAY-
349 AM AKST THU JAN 1 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING W 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2
FT BUILDING TO 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ138-020215-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
349 AM AKST THU JAN 1 2015

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES
DURING THE EVENING. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-020215-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
349 AM AKST THU JAN 1 2015

.TODAY...NW WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-020215-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
349 AM AKST THU JAN 1 2015

.TODAY...NW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-020215-
KACHEMAK BAY-
349 AM AKST THU JAN 1 2015

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2
FT.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

924 
FZAK51 PAFC 012358
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
258 PM AKST THU JAN 1 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-021300-
258 PM AKST THU JAN 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 990 MB LOW 100 NM WEST OF SITKA WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS 
SOUTHEAST ALASKA THU NIGHT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER 
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

$$

PKZ119-021300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
258 PM AKST THU JAN 1 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ120-021300-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
258 PM AKST THU JAN 1 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ121-021300-
RESURRECTION BAY-
258 PM AKST THU JAN 1 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-021300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
258 PM AKST THU JAN 1 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN
THE EVENING. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-021300-
PORT VALDEZ-
258 PM AKST THU JAN 1 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ127-021300-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
258 PM AKST THU JAN 1 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT BY MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO
45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-021300-
VALDEZ ARM-
258 PM AKST THU JAN 1 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6
FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-021300-
PASSAGE CANAL-
258 PM AKST THU JAN 1 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5
FT SUBSIDING.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-021300-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
258 PM AKST THU JAN 1 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-021300-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
258 PM AKST THU JAN 1 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ132-021300-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
258 PM AKST THU JAN 1 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT EXCEPT N 25 KT N OF DANGEROUS CAPE.
SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ136-021300-
CHINIAK BAY-
258 PM AKST THU JAN 1 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ137-021300-
MARMOT BAY-
258 PM AKST THU JAN 1 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ138-021300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
258 PM AKST THU JAN 1 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. GUST TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 7
FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-021300-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
258 PM AKST THU JAN 1 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4
FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-021300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
258 PM AKST THU JAN 1 2015


.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-021300-
KACHEMAK BAY-
258 PM AKST THU JAN 1 2015

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2
FT.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2
FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

226 
FZAK51 PAFC 021250
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
350 AM AKST FRI JAN 2 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-030130-
350 AM AKST FRI JAN 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GULF THROUGH LATE SAT
NIGHT.

$$

PKZ119-030130-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
350 AM AKST FRI JAN 2 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. N GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER
DELTA DURING THE MORNING. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ120-030130-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
350 AM AKST FRI JAN 2 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8
FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ121-030130-
RESURRECTION BAY-
350 AM AKST FRI JAN 2 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT BY LATE MORNING. SEAS
6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-030130-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
350 AM AKST FRI JAN 2 2015

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-030130-
PORT VALDEZ-
350 AM AKST FRI JAN 2 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTS TO 35 KT DURING THE MORNING. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN
THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ127-030130-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
350 AM AKST FRI JAN 2 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-030130-
VALDEZ ARM-
350 AM AKST FRI JAN 2 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT AND SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-030130-
PASSAGE CANAL-
350 AM AKST FRI JAN 2 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTS TO 35 KT NEAR WHITTIER DURING THE MORNING. SEAS 5 FT
SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-030130-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
350 AM AKST FRI JAN 2 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY DURING THE
MORNING.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY DURING THE MORNING.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ131-030130-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
350 AM AKST FRI JAN 2 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT SUBSIDING TO 9 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ132-030130-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
350 AM AKST FRI JAN 2 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6
FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ136-030130-
CHINIAK BAY-
350 AM AKST FRI JAN 2 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ137-030130-
MARMOT BAY-
350 AM AKST FRI JAN 2 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT DURING THE MORNING. SEAS 4
FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ138-030130-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
350 AM AKST FRI JAN 2 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES
DURING THE MORNING. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-030130-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
350 AM AKST FRI JAN 2 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-030130-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
350 AM AKST FRI JAN 2 2015

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT AND SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-030130-
KACHEMAK BAY-
350 AM AKST FRI JAN 2 2015

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
410 PM AKST WED DEC 31 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A STRONG BLOCKING RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE EAST PACIFIC...
THOUGH TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA OVER TOP OF THE
RIDGE ARE BEGINNING TO SQUASH DOWN THE RIDGE AND FORCE IT TO
SHIFT EASTWARD. THERE ARE SOME SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVES...
BUT THEY ARE FOCUSED OVER A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF THE AREA. STRONG
LOW LEVEL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS PRODUCING UPSLOPE FLOW OVER
THE NORTHERN TO EASTERN SUSITNA VALLEY AND THE MATANUSKA VALLEY
ENHANCING SHOWERS IN THESE AREAS. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
SNOW IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY WHERE PRECIP IS
FALLING AS ALL SNOW. PRECIP-TYPE IS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION...THOUGH COLDER AIR IS GRADUALLY
MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST CAUSING A TRANSITION TO MOSTLY
SNOW. TEMPERATURES ARE PARTICULARLY TOASTY IN THE COOK INLET
REGION WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS MIXING DOWN WARMER AIR FROM
ALOFT. AS ONE SHORT-WAVE EXITS TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON WINDS
WILL DIE DOWN AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE 30S.

LOOKING UPSTREAM...A DEEP UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR KAMCHATKA
WITH A TROUGH LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND WESTERN
TO CENTRAL BERING SEA WITH AN AMPLIFYING SHORT-WAVE RIDGE RIGHT
OUT AHEAD OF THIS. WITH SOME ENERGY HEADING NORTHWARD UP THE WEST
SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND SOME HEADING EASTWARD AT THE HEAD OF THE
SUBTROPICAL JET OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC...THE SURFACE FRONTAL
SYSTEM IS QUICKLY STRETCHING AND WEAKENING AS IT PROGRESSES NORTH
AND EASTWARD ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH HANDLING OF
SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES THROUGH SATURDAY AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS GENERALLY HIGH. THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE SKY COVER
AND TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS
AS WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT LINGERS WHILE THE LOW LEVELS UNDERGO A
DRAMATIC SHIFT FROM WEAK ONSHORE FLOW TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW.
ANOTHER CHALLENGE IS DETERMINING THE EXACT STRENGTH OF OUTFLOW
WINDS ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)...
THE STRONGEST OF THE UPPER SHORT-WAVES WILL EXIT TO INTERIOR
ALASKA THIS EVENING. THIS WILL CAUSE ANY REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS
(MAINLY OVER THE MAT-SU AND NORTHWESTERN COPPER BASIN ZONES...TO
TAPER OFF. MEANWHILE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL QUICKLY SHIFT FROM
ONSHORE TO OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AS A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC TRACKS INTO THE GULF. THE LOW WILL ULTIMATELY
TRACK TO SOUTHEAST ALASKA SO THE IMPACT TO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
WILL BE STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS THROUGH GAPS ALONG PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND AND THE NORTH GULF COAST. LOW LEVEL FORCING LOOKS FAIRLY
STRONG...WITH VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS...STRONG LOW-LEVEL
FLOW (NOT ACCOUNTING FOR FUNNELING THROUGH GAPS)...AND WEAK COLD
AIR ADVECTION. UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS NOT VERY SUPPORTIVE WITH
GENERALLY WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH THE PEAK OF THE
EVENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING AND THE LACK OF SYNOPTIC
SCALE SUBSIDENCE. BASED ON THE LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT WILL LEAVE
WINDS BELOW WARNING THRESHOLDS...BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
FORCING FOR WINDS TO APPROACH WARNING LEVELS IN THE WHITTIER AND
VALDEZ.

WINDS WILL LINGER THE LONGEST IN SEWARD AND WHITTIER AREAS
AS THE LAST UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE FIRMLY FLATTENED BY THE SYSTEM TRACKING TO SOUTHEAST
ALASKA UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TEMPORARILY BECOME PROGRESSIVE WITH
A TROUGH/UPPER LOW QUICKLY MOVING INTO THE GULF LATE FRIDAY.
MODELS ARE ALL STARTING TO KEY IN ON A WEAK LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF AND A QUICK SHOT OF PRECIP...MAINLY IN THE PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND REGION...FRIDAY NIGHT. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL STILL BE IN PLACE
ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER) SO THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. FOR NOW HAVE TRENDED UPWARD WITH POPS AND
WILL RE-EVALUATE BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
EVENT. WITH MOST OF THE FOCUS ALONG THE GULF COAST THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHCENTRAL WILL EXPERIENCE DRY WEATHER
WITH A STEADY COOLING TREND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)...
A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA UNTIL
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN ON THURSDAY. THE BIGGER THREAT WITH DRYING
IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS AND LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE IS FOG
AND STRATUS. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM/UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE BERING
SEA WILL FALL APART AS IT NEARS SOUTHWEST ALASKA THURSDAY NIGHT...
SO IF IT SURVIVES EXPECT PRECIP TO BE CONFINED TO THE COAST.
MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE STEADY DECLINE...ESPECIALLY
OVER INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC COMBINED
WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGING WILL MAINTAIN A MERIDIONAL STORM
TRACK...WITH DEEP SURFACE LOWS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHWEST
PACIFIC AND TRACKING NORTHWARD INTO THE FAR WESTERN BERING SEA.
THIS WILL PUSH A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEM NORTH AND EASTWARD
ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
STRENGTH OF EACH OF THESE SYSTEMS LOOKS REMARKABLY SIMILAR.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7...SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY)...MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A DOMINANT
RIDGE OVER MOST OF THE MAINLAND DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS WILL
BE REFLECTED AS A STRONG SURFACE HIGH (~1040MB). THE OTHER
SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES DURING THIS TIME WILL BE A SEASONABLE LOW
OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND A FAIRLY STRONG LOW JUST SOUTH OF
THE GULF. THE LOW OUT WEST WILL BRING MINIMAL IMPACTING WEATHER.
THE LOW SOUTH OF THE GULF WILL HELP SET UP A REX BLOCK PATTERN.
THIS OCCURS WHEN A STRONG HIGH FORMS OVER A RELATIVELY STRONG LOW.
IT EFFECTIVELY FORCES THE STRONG FLOW OF THE STORM TRACK TO GO
AROUND IT. THE NET EFFECT IS THAT ONCE IT IS IN PLACE...IT CAN
LEAD TO VERY DRY WEATHER FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL DAYS.

THE BIG DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS IS THAT
THE LOCATION OF THAT HIGH HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST. SO
RATHER THAN BEING CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
MAINLAND...IT IS NOW SHOWN CLOSER TO THE BERING STRAIT. THE 18Z
PARALLEL VERSION OF THE GFS WAS THE FIRST TO HINT AT THIS
YESTERDAY...THEN THE 00Z EC TRENDED IN THAT SAME DIRECTION. THE
12Z EC CONTINUED WITH THE IDEA. AND NOW EVEN THE 12Z AND 18Z
OPERATIONAL GFS RUNS HAVE GONE IN THAT DIRECTION AND ARE MUCH
CLOSER TO THE EC.

THE REASON WE SPEND SO MUCH TIME LOOKING AT THIS DETAIL IS IF
THAT HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE WEST FAR ENOUGH...IT COULD OPEN THE
DOOR FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE MAINLAND TO SEE VERY STRONG
OUTFLOW (OR BORA) WINDS FROM EARLY THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. WITH
BOTH THE EUROPEAN AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOWING A 20-30 METER
HEIGHT ANOMALY JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA...THERE IS
GROWING CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO. SO THIS FORECAST PACKAGE
REFLECTS THIS WITH AN UPWARD TREND FOR WINDS IN THE TYPICAL
OUTFLOW LOCATIONS...SEWARD AND VALDEZ...COPPER RIVER DELTA. THE
OTHER ITEM OF INTEREST IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME MUCH MORE
SEASONAL IN THIS TIME-FRAME...MAYBE EVEN A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THAN NORMAL. CERTAINLY THE COLDEST AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE COPPER
RIVER BASIN WHERE LOWS SHOULD NEAR 30 BELOW ZERO SUNDAY AND MONDAY
MORNINGS.

SO PEOPLE SHOULD STAY TUNED FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES...VERY DRY
CONDITIONS...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 177 178.
         GALE WARNING 120 126 127 128 129 130 131 132 137 173 174
                   175 176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...SB
LONG TERM...MO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1133 PM AKST WED DEC 31 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     SNOW             CANTWELL                63.37N 148.92W
12/31/2014  E12.0 INCH                          AK   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            NEW SNOW 12-16 INCHES IN VARIOUS AREAS BETWEEN 6PM 12/30
            AND 6PM 12/31.

&&

KUTZ