Gale Warning 1, NWS Anchorage, AK

661 
FZAK62 PAFC 020015
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
315 PM AKST THU JAN 1 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-021415-
315 PM AKST THU JAN 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...A WEAK FRONT OVER THE EASTERN
BERING WILL DISSIPATE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST THU NIGHT. A 962
MB LOW NEAR 48N 163W WILL TRACK TO THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA FRI
EVENING. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWEST BERING
SEA WILL STALL OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA FRI AFTERNOON THEN
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-021415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
315 PM AKST THU JAN 1 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 13
TO 21 FT. RAIN AND SNOW DEVELOPING.
.FRI...SE WIND 35 TO 45 KT BECOMING S 25 TO 40 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 TO 21 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...S TO W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 17 TO 21 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 16 TO 22 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 19 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.

$$

PKZ412-021415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
315 PM AKST THU JAN 1 2015

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND UP TO 20 KT INCREASING TO 15 TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 12 TO 20 FT. RAIN
AND SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 21 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ413-021415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
315 PM AKST THU JAN 1 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT INCREASING TO 25 TO 40 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 12 TO 20 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S TO W WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ414-021415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
315 PM AKST THU JAN 1 2015

.TONIGHT...S TO W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW.
.FRI...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.

$$

318 
FZAK62 PAFC 021212
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
312 AM AKST FRI JAN 2 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-030245-
312 AM AKST FRI JAN 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 960 MB LOW NEAR 52N 166E WILL TRACK OVER THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA THIS EVENING. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE
WESTERN BERING SEA WILL STALL OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA THIS AFTERNOON
THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH LATE SAT NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-030245-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
312 AM AKST FRI JAN 2 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 TO 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 TO 22 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 17 TO 22 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 15 TO 22 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 TO 19 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.

$$

PKZ412-030245-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
312 AM AKST FRI JAN 2 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 TO 21 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ413-030245-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
312 AM AKST FRI JAN 2 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 TO 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 TO 21 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ414-030245-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
312 AM AKST FRI JAN 2 2015

.TODAY...SW WIND UP TO 20 KT BECOMING S 15 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.

$$

428 
FZAK62 PAFC 030020
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
320 PM AKST FRI JAN 2 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-031415-
320 PM AKST FRI JAN 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...A 961 MB LOW AT 57N 165E WILL
MOVE TO 60N 162E FRI NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT FROM THE LOW IN
AN ARC THROUGH 50N 180 AND SOUTH WILL MOVE NORTH AND EAST AS IT
DISSIPATES ACROSS THE NORTHERN BERING SEA SAT NIGHT. A DEVELOPING
NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL BE 966 MB AT 51N 161E SUN AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-031415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
320 PM AKST FRI JAN 2 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 TO 21 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 15 TO 21 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 19 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 19 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.

$$

PKZ412-031415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
320 PM AKST FRI JAN 2 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 15 TO 25 FT.
RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND UP TO 20 KT BECOMING E AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 TO 16 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.

$$

PKZ413-031415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
320 PM AKST FRI JAN 2 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 15
TO 23 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT DIMINISHING TO UP TO 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND UP TO 20 KT INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.

$$

PKZ414-031415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
320 PM AKST FRI JAN 2 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
410 PM AKST WED DEC 31 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A STRONG BLOCKING RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE EAST PACIFIC...
THOUGH TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA OVER TOP OF THE
RIDGE ARE BEGINNING TO SQUASH DOWN THE RIDGE AND FORCE IT TO
SHIFT EASTWARD. THERE ARE SOME SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVES...
BUT THEY ARE FOCUSED OVER A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF THE AREA. STRONG
LOW LEVEL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS PRODUCING UPSLOPE FLOW OVER
THE NORTHERN TO EASTERN SUSITNA VALLEY AND THE MATANUSKA VALLEY
ENHANCING SHOWERS IN THESE AREAS. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
SNOW IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY WHERE PRECIP IS
FALLING AS ALL SNOW. PRECIP-TYPE IS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION...THOUGH COLDER AIR IS GRADUALLY
MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST CAUSING A TRANSITION TO MOSTLY
SNOW. TEMPERATURES ARE PARTICULARLY TOASTY IN THE COOK INLET
REGION WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS MIXING DOWN WARMER AIR FROM
ALOFT. AS ONE SHORT-WAVE EXITS TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON WINDS
WILL DIE DOWN AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE 30S.

LOOKING UPSTREAM...A DEEP UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR KAMCHATKA
WITH A TROUGH LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND WESTERN
TO CENTRAL BERING SEA WITH AN AMPLIFYING SHORT-WAVE RIDGE RIGHT
OUT AHEAD OF THIS. WITH SOME ENERGY HEADING NORTHWARD UP THE WEST
SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND SOME HEADING EASTWARD AT THE HEAD OF THE
SUBTROPICAL JET OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC...THE SURFACE FRONTAL
SYSTEM IS QUICKLY STRETCHING AND WEAKENING AS IT PROGRESSES NORTH
AND EASTWARD ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH HANDLING OF
SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES THROUGH SATURDAY AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS GENERALLY HIGH. THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE SKY COVER
AND TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS
AS WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT LINGERS WHILE THE LOW LEVELS UNDERGO A
DRAMATIC SHIFT FROM WEAK ONSHORE FLOW TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW.
ANOTHER CHALLENGE IS DETERMINING THE EXACT STRENGTH OF OUTFLOW
WINDS ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)...
THE STRONGEST OF THE UPPER SHORT-WAVES WILL EXIT TO INTERIOR
ALASKA THIS EVENING. THIS WILL CAUSE ANY REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS
(MAINLY OVER THE MAT-SU AND NORTHWESTERN COPPER BASIN ZONES...TO
TAPER OFF. MEANWHILE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL QUICKLY SHIFT FROM
ONSHORE TO OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AS A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC TRACKS INTO THE GULF. THE LOW WILL ULTIMATELY
TRACK TO SOUTHEAST ALASKA SO THE IMPACT TO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
WILL BE STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS THROUGH GAPS ALONG PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND AND THE NORTH GULF COAST. LOW LEVEL FORCING LOOKS FAIRLY
STRONG...WITH VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS...STRONG LOW-LEVEL
FLOW (NOT ACCOUNTING FOR FUNNELING THROUGH GAPS)...AND WEAK COLD
AIR ADVECTION. UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS NOT VERY SUPPORTIVE WITH
GENERALLY WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH THE PEAK OF THE
EVENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING AND THE LACK OF SYNOPTIC
SCALE SUBSIDENCE. BASED ON THE LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT WILL LEAVE
WINDS BELOW WARNING THRESHOLDS...BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
FORCING FOR WINDS TO APPROACH WARNING LEVELS IN THE WHITTIER AND
VALDEZ.

WINDS WILL LINGER THE LONGEST IN SEWARD AND WHITTIER AREAS
AS THE LAST UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE FIRMLY FLATTENED BY THE SYSTEM TRACKING TO SOUTHEAST
ALASKA UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TEMPORARILY BECOME PROGRESSIVE WITH
A TROUGH/UPPER LOW QUICKLY MOVING INTO THE GULF LATE FRIDAY.
MODELS ARE ALL STARTING TO KEY IN ON A WEAK LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF AND A QUICK SHOT OF PRECIP...MAINLY IN THE PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND REGION...FRIDAY NIGHT. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL STILL BE IN PLACE
ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER) SO THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. FOR NOW HAVE TRENDED UPWARD WITH POPS AND
WILL RE-EVALUATE BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
EVENT. WITH MOST OF THE FOCUS ALONG THE GULF COAST THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHCENTRAL WILL EXPERIENCE DRY WEATHER
WITH A STEADY COOLING TREND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)...
A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA UNTIL
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN ON THURSDAY. THE BIGGER THREAT WITH DRYING
IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS AND LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE IS FOG
AND STRATUS. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM/UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE BERING
SEA WILL FALL APART AS IT NEARS SOUTHWEST ALASKA THURSDAY NIGHT...
SO IF IT SURVIVES EXPECT PRECIP TO BE CONFINED TO THE COAST.
MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE STEADY DECLINE...ESPECIALLY
OVER INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC COMBINED
WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGING WILL MAINTAIN A MERIDIONAL STORM
TRACK...WITH DEEP SURFACE LOWS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHWEST
PACIFIC AND TRACKING NORTHWARD INTO THE FAR WESTERN BERING SEA.
THIS WILL PUSH A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEM NORTH AND EASTWARD
ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
STRENGTH OF EACH OF THESE SYSTEMS LOOKS REMARKABLY SIMILAR.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7...SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY)...MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A DOMINANT
RIDGE OVER MOST OF THE MAINLAND DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS WILL
BE REFLECTED AS A STRONG SURFACE HIGH (~1040MB). THE OTHER
SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES DURING THIS TIME WILL BE A SEASONABLE LOW
OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND A FAIRLY STRONG LOW JUST SOUTH OF
THE GULF. THE LOW OUT WEST WILL BRING MINIMAL IMPACTING WEATHER.
THE LOW SOUTH OF THE GULF WILL HELP SET UP A REX BLOCK PATTERN.
THIS OCCURS WHEN A STRONG HIGH FORMS OVER A RELATIVELY STRONG LOW.
IT EFFECTIVELY FORCES THE STRONG FLOW OF THE STORM TRACK TO GO
AROUND IT. THE NET EFFECT IS THAT ONCE IT IS IN PLACE...IT CAN
LEAD TO VERY DRY WEATHER FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL DAYS.

THE BIG DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS IS THAT
THE LOCATION OF THAT HIGH HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST. SO
RATHER THAN BEING CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
MAINLAND...IT IS NOW SHOWN CLOSER TO THE BERING STRAIT. THE 18Z
PARALLEL VERSION OF THE GFS WAS THE FIRST TO HINT AT THIS
YESTERDAY...THEN THE 00Z EC TRENDED IN THAT SAME DIRECTION. THE
12Z EC CONTINUED WITH THE IDEA. AND NOW EVEN THE 12Z AND 18Z
OPERATIONAL GFS RUNS HAVE GONE IN THAT DIRECTION AND ARE MUCH
CLOSER TO THE EC.

THE REASON WE SPEND SO MUCH TIME LOOKING AT THIS DETAIL IS IF
THAT HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE WEST FAR ENOUGH...IT COULD OPEN THE
DOOR FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE MAINLAND TO SEE VERY STRONG
OUTFLOW (OR BORA) WINDS FROM EARLY THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. WITH
BOTH THE EUROPEAN AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOWING A 20-30 METER
HEIGHT ANOMALY JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA...THERE IS
GROWING CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO. SO THIS FORECAST PACKAGE
REFLECTS THIS WITH AN UPWARD TREND FOR WINDS IN THE TYPICAL
OUTFLOW LOCATIONS...SEWARD AND VALDEZ...COPPER RIVER DELTA. THE
OTHER ITEM OF INTEREST IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME MUCH MORE
SEASONAL IN THIS TIME-FRAME...MAYBE EVEN A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THAN NORMAL. CERTAINLY THE COLDEST AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE COPPER
RIVER BASIN WHERE LOWS SHOULD NEAR 30 BELOW ZERO SUNDAY AND MONDAY
MORNINGS.

SO PEOPLE SHOULD STAY TUNED FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES...VERY DRY
CONDITIONS...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 177 178.
         GALE WARNING 120 126 127 128 129 130 131 132 137 173 174
                   175 176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...SB
LONG TERM...MO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1133 PM AKST WED DEC 31 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     SNOW             CANTWELL                63.37N 148.92W
12/31/2014  E12.0 INCH                          AK   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            NEW SNOW 12-16 INCHES IN VARIOUS AREAS BETWEEN 6PM 12/30
            AND 6PM 12/31.

&&

KUTZ