Gale Warning 294, NWS Anchorage, AK

432 
FZAK52 PAFC 291128
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
328 AM AKDT SUN MAR 29 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-300000-
328 AM AKDT SUN MAR 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 983 MB LOW 100 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK WILL DISSIPATE 60 NM WEST OF
SITKINAK SUN NIGHT. A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE WESTERN BERING WILL
DISSIPATE SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS SUN NIGHT. A 1003 MB LOW
WILL DEVELOP 200 NM SOUTHWEST OF ADAK MON MORNING AND STRENGTHEN
TO 994 MB 230 NM EAST OF ADAK BY MON NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-300000-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
328 AM AKDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT EXCEPT NE 25 KT ALONG THE COAST.
SEAS 11 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT...EXCEPT SE 15 KT E OF CHIRIKOF ISLAND.
SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ155-300000-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
328 AM AKDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ160-300000-
BRISTOL BAY-
328 AM AKDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ165-300000-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
328 AM AKDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT EXCEPT N 15 KT FROM PORT MOLLER E. SEAS 6
FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ170-300000-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
328 AM AKDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ171-300000-
UNALASKA BAY-
328 AM AKDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-300000-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
328 AM AKDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ173-300000-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
328 AM AKDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ174-300000-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
328 AM AKDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ175-300000-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
328 AM AKDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ176-300000-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
328 AM AKDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ177-300000-
ADAK TO KISKA-
328 AM AKDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ178-300000-
KISKA TO ATTU-
328 AM AKDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ179-300000-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
328 AM AKDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE
EVENING.
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ180-300000-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
328 AM AKDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY NEAR THE ICE EDGE.
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ181-300000-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
328 AM AKDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE WIND 15 KT.

$$

PKZ185-300000-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
328 AM AKDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
458 AM AKDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED THIS MORNING AS A
BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE NORTHERN PACIFIC
WITH AN EMBEDDED COMPLEX LOW CENTERED NEAR THE ALASKA PENINSULA.
NUMEROUS WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS LOW ARE THE
MAIN FEATURES IMPACTING THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. RAIN
CONTINUES ALONG THE GULF COAST AS ONE OF THESE WAVES PUSHES INLAND
OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...WITH LOCATIONS IN THE LEE OF THE
CHUGACH AND TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS STAYING MOSTLY DRY AS A RESULT OF
STRONG CROSS BARRIER FLOW. MEANWHILE...THE NEXT SYSTEM IS TAKING
AIM ON THE WESTERN GULF AS A DEEP LOW APPROXIMATELY 350 MILES
SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHWARD. AN ASSOCIATED
FRONT IS ENTERING THE SOUTHERN GULF WELL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
LOW...BRINGING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO KODIAK ISLAND. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE IS PUSHING WESTWARD THROUGH THE BERING...BRINGING RAIN
TO THE AKPEN/EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW TO THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD SHORT TERM AGREEMENT AND HAVE CONVERGED
ON A SOLUTION FOR THE TRACK OF THE NEXT LOW SET TO IMPACT THE
GULF AS IT APPROACHES KODIAK ISLAND BY SUNDAY MORNING. MAINLY USED
THE GFS FOR THE MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE. ALSO UTILIZED THE
ENHANCED DETAIL OF THE CANADIAN (GEM) REGIONAL MODEL IN THE FIRST
36 HOURS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE DOMAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

WITH THE LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF TODAY TAKING A SLIGHTLY MORE
WESTERLY PATH THAN IT LOOKED YESTERDAY IT WILL KEEP THE MAJORITY
OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA IN WARM AND MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THERE
WILL BE A BIT OF RAINFALL OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS WITH JUST
SOME ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS REMAINING FOR THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS. SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS TURNAGAIN PASS AND
THOMPSON PASS WILL SEE SOME SNOW MIXED IN DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS BUT AREAS NEAR SEA LEVEL WILL PRETTY MUCH JUST EXPERIENCE
RAIN AS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER SOUTHWEST
ALASKA WILL BE THE 973 MB LOW APPROACHING KODIAK WITH THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVING INLAND TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN
CAPES AND ALASKA PENINSULA REGION OF BRISTOL BAY BEFORE
DISSIPATING TONIGHT. AS THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE
REGION...EXPECT A DRYING AND COOLING TREND THROUGH SUNDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY LATE SUNDAY AS A
SECOND WEAK LOW THAT FORMS SOUTH OF COLD BAY MIGRATES EASTWARD TO
NEAR KODIAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
AT THE SURFACE...THE CENTRAL/EASTERN BERING SEA REMAINS FIRMLY
IN CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE LOW APPROACHING KODIAK ISLAND THIS
MORNING WITH BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS FROM THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS
SOUTHWARD TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. PRECIPITATION...MAINLY
RAIN...WILL CONTINUE TODAY OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FROM ATKA TO DUTCH HARBOR AS THE MARINE FLOW OFF THE
BERING COMBINED WITH A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF DUTCH
HARBOR MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD BEFORE DISSIPATING. TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN BERING
ENDING PRECIPITATION OVER THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS.

FURTHER WEST...A LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT NEAR KAMCHATKA IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...BRINGING A SWATH OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS. PRECIPITATION IN THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO STAY MOSTLY
SNOW AS THERE IS NOT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
INTO THE REGION WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY AS A LONG
WAVE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING AND GULF OF ALASKA.
PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY STAY OVER AREA WATERS AND SURROUNDING
COASTS. ON MONDAY THE CLOSED LOW CENTER SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND
BEGINS TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD AS ANOTHER LOW CENTER RACES ALONG
THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE SURFACE LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEXT STORM SYSTEM PASSES THE ALASKA
PENINSULA. AT THIS POINT THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
TRACK OF THIS LOW BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS...WITH A 400
MILE DIFFERENCE IN THE SURFACE PRESSURE CENTERS. THE ECMWF TRACKS
THIS SYSTEM JUST NORTH OF KODIAK ISLAND AND THE GFS TRACKS SOUTH
OF THE ISLAND. THE ECMWF WOULD BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES PUSHING A
FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN GULF AND THE GFS SOLUTION IS ON THE COOLER
SIDE WITH THE WARM FRONT SKIRTING THE SOUTHERN GULF.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 119 120 130 131 174.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...RLF
LONG TERM...KH