Gale Warning 242, NWS Anchorage, AK

564 
FZAK51 PAFC 101142
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
342 AM AKDT TUE MAR 10 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-110045-
342 AM AKDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL APPROACH
THE SOUTHERN GULF TUE NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN GULF
WED AFTERNOON THROUGH THU MORNING. 

$$

PKZ119-110045-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
342 AM AKDT TUE MAR 10 2015

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER
DELTA. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER
DELTA. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER DELTA. SEAS
4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ120-110045-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
342 AM AKDT TUE MAR 10 2015

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES
DURING THE MORNING. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY NEAR THE COAST.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ121-110045-
RESURRECTION BAY-
342 AM AKDT TUE MAR 10 2015

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ125-110045-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
342 AM AKDT TUE MAR 10 2015

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-110045-
PORT VALDEZ-
342 AM AKDT TUE MAR 10 2015

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT DURING THE MORNING. SEAS 5
FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT AND WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-110045-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
342 AM AKDT TUE MAR 10 2015

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY.
.TONIGHT AND WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-110045-
VALDEZ ARM-
342 AM AKDT TUE MAR 10 2015

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY DURING THE
MORNING.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY DURING THE
MORNING.
.WED NIGHT AND THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-110045-
PASSAGE CANAL-
342 AM AKDT TUE MAR 10 2015

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 4 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 4 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 4 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY DURING THE MORNING.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-110045-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
342 AM AKDT TUE MAR 10 2015

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ131-110045-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
342 AM AKDT TUE MAR 10 2015

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IN THE
MORNING NEAR THE BARREN ISLANDS.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY NEAR THE BARREN
ISLANDS.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY NEAR THE BARREN
ISLANDS.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ132-110045-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
342 AM AKDT TUE MAR 10 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT EXCEPT N 25 KT N OF DANGEROUS CAPE. SEAS 6
FT. FREEZING SPRAY NEAR THE COAST.
.TONIGHT AND WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY NEAR
THE COAST.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ136-110045-
CHINIAK BAY-
342 AM AKDT TUE MAR 10 2015

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT AND WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-110045-
MARMOT BAY-
342 AM AKDT TUE MAR 10 2015

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT AND WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-110045-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
342 AM AKDT TUE MAR 10 2015

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ139-110045-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
342 AM AKDT TUE MAR 10 2015

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT AND WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT AND THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ140-110045-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
342 AM AKDT TUE MAR 10 2015

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-110045-
KACHEMAK BAY-
342 AM AKDT TUE MAR 10 2015

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. NEAR THE OUTER BAY...N WIND 20
KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT AND WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. NEAR THE OUTER BAY...N WIND 20
KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
508 AM AKDT MON MAR 9 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER MAINLAND AK THIS MORNING WITH AN
EMBEDDED CUTOFF LOW CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY. A
DEVELOPING TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS...AND A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER WESTERN AK. A 110 KT ZONAL JET IS
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF AK. AT THE SURFACE...COLD AND DRY AIR
STREAMING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IS INDUCING SOME SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY EAST OF THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN RANGES....AND ACROSS THE
GULF AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST. THIS COLD AIR IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THE JET IS IN THE PROCESS OF SPINNING UP A LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF. IN THE WEST...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER
THE BERING AND WESTERN AK...AND A LOW SOUTH OF ADAK IS BRINGING
SNOW WITH GALE AND STORM FORCE WINDS TO MUCH OF THE ALEUTIAN
CHAIN.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. HIGH PRESSURE
WITH COLD AND DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE BUILDING ACROSS THE MAINLAND
ZONES THROUGH TUE NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP TODAY OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF AND EXIT OVER SE AK TUE MORNING. THIS WILL SET UP A
SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE MAINLAND AND THE GULF WHICH
WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT OUTFLOW GAP WINDS. IN THE WEST...THE LOW
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL RAPIDLY MOVE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA
TONIGHT...DRAGGING THE ASSOCIATED FRONT AWAY FROM THE
ALEUTIANS...AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ENTERS THE WESTERN
BERING TUE NIGHT. THE FORECASTS WERE GUIDED BY THE EC...WITH SOME
GEM REGIONAL INFLUENCE FOR OUTFLOW WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (MONDAY AND TUESDAY)...

STRONG UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE SUSITNA VALLEY WILL CONTINUE
ITS RAPID PACE EASTWARD TODAY. AT THE SURFACE...SEVERAL WEAK LOWS
HAVE SPUN UP UNDERNEATH THE INCREASING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND
HAVE LOCALLY ENHANCED NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING. ONE OF
THESE LOWS IS NEAR EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WHILE ANOTHER IS
ONSHORE THE SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA AND HAS PRODUCED THE STRONG
WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS AROUND KACHEMAK BAY. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES
WILL MOVE QUICKLY TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TODAY AS THE LARGE-SCALE
OFFSHORE MOVEMENT OF MASS IN THE ATMOSPHERE GETS UNDERWAY. THIS
WILL ACTIVATE ALL OF THE USUAL OUTFLOW GAP WINDS FROM THE BARREN
ISLANDS TO RESURRECTION BAY AND ON UP TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.
AS THE COLD AIR BEGINS TO DUMP MORE SIGNIFICANTLY OFF THE ALASKAN
LANDMASS THIS MORNING A STRENGTHENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE LEFT ALONG THE COAST AS A RESULT OF STRONG HEAT FLUX FROM THE
WATER. THIS WILL REINFORCE PRESSURE GRADIENTS...AND AS A RESULT
THE STRONGEST WINDS OF THIS MODERATE "OUTFLOW" EVENT WILL LIKELY
OCCUR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION
PEAKS.

BY TUESDAY...OVERALL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND COLD
ADVECTION DIMINISHES...HELPING GAP WINDS TO RELAX. A CONTINUED DRY
AIRMASS AND WEAK TRANSIENT MIDLEVEL RIDGING WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR
AND SUNNY FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW SWINGING EAST OF SOUTHWEST
ALASKA...QUIET YET SOMEWHAT CHILLY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING ALONG THE
WEST SLOPES OF THE ALASKA RANGE AND NORTH SIDE OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WILL TAPER OFF TODAY LEAVING ISOLATED INSTABILITY DRIVEN
SHOWERS BRUSHING THE BERING COAST THE ONLY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURE WISE...EXPECTING ONLY LITTLE RECOVERY IN THE
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY THEN A MUCH COLDER NIGHT TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AS WINDS BECOMING SOMEWHAT WEAKER AND THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE MORE STABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTH OF ADAK WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST
TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE SLIDING SOUTH ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT AS A SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND A VERY COLD AIR MASS WILL
WILL PERSIST OVER THE BERING AND CONTINUE TO MAKE FREEZING AND
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY A CONCERN OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE
BERING...AS WELL AS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA WHERE GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS WILL CARRY THE COLDER AIR AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...OFFSHORE FLOW...AND OUTFLOW WINDS WILL
CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTH MAINLAND THROUGH THURSDAY. OVER
THE BERING...A LOW SKIRTING THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE INTO
THE NORTH PACIFIC ON WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING COLD AIR AND SNOW
SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE REGION THAT SHOULD PERSIST INTO THURSDAY.

ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO ENTER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS ON THURSDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
WESTERN BERING. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF STORMY AND MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER TO THE BERING SEA REGION THAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEK.

OVER THE GULF THERE CONTINUES TO BE DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS
WITH THE STRENGTH OF AN ARCTIC TROUGH OVER THE MAINLAND AND
RESULTING LOW OVER THE GULF. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE
EXTRAORDINARILY CONSISTENT WITH A MUCH DEEPER AND WARMER SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE NORTH GULF COAST ON FRIDAY...WHILE THE EC AND GEM
BRING A MUCH WEAKER AND (IMPORTANTLY) COOLER SYSTEM TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE. AFTER COORDINATION WITH WPC AND WFO JUNEAU
THIS MORNING...IT WAS DECIDED TO CONTINUE TO TREAT THE GFS AS AN
OUTLIER AND INSTEAD THE EXTENDED FORECAST USED AN EC/GEM BLEND ON
FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE HOWEVER CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY LOW...AND MODEL
TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED OVER THE COMING DAYS.

BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND...THERE IS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
FAMILIAR PATTERN WILL RETURN TO MAINLAND ALASKA AS A BUILDING
NORTHEAST PACIFIC RIDGE MAKES ITS RETURN. BECAUSE OF THIS IT NOW
APPEARS THAT THE MAINLAND WILL RETURN TO THE WARM AND STORMY
PATTERN SEEN FOR MOST OF THIS WINTER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK (IF NOT
BEFORE AS THE GFS HAS BEEN INDICATING).

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES...120 121 127 131 139 141 170 173-175 178
STORMS...130 177
HVY FRZG SPRY...121 126-131 138 139 150 160 165 179-181 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AD
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JR
LONG TERM...DEK/CC