Gale Warning 24, NWS Anchorage, AK

151 
FZAK62 PAFC 252352
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
252 PM AKST SUN JAN 25 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-261445-
252 PM AKST SUN JAN 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A FRONT SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA TONIGHT AND MON...THEN STALL
OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL BERING SEA THROUGH TUE.

$$

PKZ411-261445-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
252 PM AKST SUN JAN 25 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. SNOW. FREEZING
SPRAY N OF 56N.
.MON...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT. FREEZING SPRAY
IN THE EVENING.
.TUE...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.WED...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ412-261445-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
252 PM AKST SUN JAN 25 2015

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY N OF 58N.
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY N OF 57N.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY N OF 57N.
.TUE...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ413-261445-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
252 PM AKST SUN JAN 25 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT. SNOW.
.MON...NE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 18 FT. SNOW. FREEZING
SPRAY N OF 55N.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 18 FT. SNOW. FREEZING
SPRAY N OF 55N.
.TUE...N WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 19 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 18 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.

$$

PKZ414-261445-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
252 PM AKST SUN JAN 25 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY N OF 56N.
.MON...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY N OF 56N.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY N OF 57N.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

289 
FZAK62 PAFC 261253
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
353 AM AKST MON JAN 26 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-270300-
353 AM AKST MON JAN 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 988 MB COMPLEX LOW CENTERED NEAR 50N 174W WILL MOVE TO 50N 167W
TUE MORNING WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...THEN DISSIPATE. A 986
MB LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTH PACIFIC AND MOVE TO 51N 157W AT
980 MB TUE AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY DRIFT WEST LATE TUE NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-270300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
353 AM AKST MON JAN 26 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY
IN THE EVENING.
.TUE...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.WED...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ412-270300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
353 AM AKST MON JAN 26 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY E OF 175W.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY E
OF 175W.
.TUE...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
E OF 175W.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ413-270300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
353 AM AKST MON JAN 26 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 17 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
FREEZING SPRAY N OF 55N.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY N OF 55N.
.TUE...N WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 17 TO 21 FT. SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY N OF 55N.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 TO 22 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ414-270300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
353 AM AKST MON JAN 26 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY N OF 57N.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY N OF 57N.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY N OF 58N.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.

$$

672 
FZAK62 PAFC 262354
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
254 PM AKST MON JAN 26 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-271500-
254 PM AKST MON JAN 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 987 MB COMPLEX LOW CENTERED NEAR 48N 169W WILL MOVE TO 49N 166W
TUE MORNING AT 988 MB...THEN DISSIPATE. A 989 MB LOW AT 46N 156W
WILL MOVE TO 52N 158W AT 980 MB TUE AFTERNOON... THEN MOVE TO 49N
168W AT 991 MB WED AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-271500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
254 PM AKST MON JAN 26 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N OF
56N.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ412-271500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
254 PM AKST MON JAN 26 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY N OF 58N.
.TUE...N WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 18 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY N OF 58N.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT. SNOW. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.WED...N WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ413-271500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
254 PM AKST MON JAN 26 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING
SPRAY N OF 55N.
.TUE...N WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 TO 22 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY
N OF 55N.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 TO 23 FT. SNOW.
.WED...N WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 19 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.

$$

PKZ414-271500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
254 PM AKST MON JAN 26 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N TO E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY N OF 58N.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY N OF 58N.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY N OF 58N.
.WED...N WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

310 
FZAK62 PAFC 271239
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
339 AM AKST TUE JAN 27 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-280215-
339 AM AKST TUE JAN 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 987 MB COMPLEX LOW CENTERED NEAR 49N 167W WILL DISSIPATE THIS
MORNING. A 982 MB LOW AT 50N 155W WILL MOVE TO 53N 160W LATE THIS
EVENING WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...THEN TO 50N 165W AT 990
MB WED AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-280215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
339 AM AKST TUE JAN 27 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N OF
56N.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N
OF 56N.
.WED...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N OF
56N.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.SAT...E WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.

$$

PKZ412-280215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
339 AM AKST TUE JAN 27 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY E OF 176W.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT. SNOW. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.WED...N WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ413-280215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
339 AM AKST TUE JAN 27 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 TO 22 FT. SNOW. FREEZING
SPRAY N OF 55N IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 17 TO 23 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED...N WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 TO 20 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.

$$

PKZ414-280215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
339 AM AKST TUE JAN 27 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N OF 57N.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N OF 57N.
.WED...N WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY N OF 57N.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.

$$

464 
FZAK62 PAFC 280017
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
317 PM AKST TUE JAN 27 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-281500-
317 PM AKST TUE JAN 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 982 MB LOW AT 53N 157W WILL MOVE TO 50N 167W AT 992 MB WED
AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN BERING WED AFTERNOON THROUGH
THU.

$$

PKZ411-281500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
317 PM AKST TUE JAN 27 2015

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY N OF 56N.
.WED...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.SAT...E WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.SUN...N WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT.

$$

PKZ412-281500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
317 PM AKST TUE JAN 27 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY.
.WED...N WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

PKZ413-281500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
317 PM AKST TUE JAN 27 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 17 TO 23 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED...N WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 15 TO 21 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ414-281500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
317 PM AKST TUE JAN 27 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N OF 57N.
.WED...N WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N
OF 57N.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY N OF 57N.
.THU...N WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
310 PM AKST SAT JAN 24 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH IS PROGRESSING SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM SOUTHWEST
ALASKA INTO THE WESTERN GULF AND WESTERN PORTION OF SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA. THE TROUGH IS JUST BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF DEVELOPING A
NEGATIVE TILT...AS RISING HEIGHTS DOWNSTREAM OVER WESTERN CANADA
AND A STRENGTHENING UPPER JET BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND RIDGE CAUSE
THE TROUGH TO BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD. MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING
SNOW HAS ENDED FROM THE WESTERN KENAI TO ANCHORAGE AND MAT-SU.
RADAR DOES SHOW SOME WEAK RETURNS AS COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH MAINTAINS SOME VERY LOW LEVEL LIFT...RESULTING IN
VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. STRONG GAP WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
THE WESTERN GULF AND KODIAK ISLAND WITH THE ONSET OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION.

STRONG LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW IS
PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF THE PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND REGION...WITH MARGINALLY LIGHTER PRECIP OVER THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN. OF SPECIAL NOTE...PRECIPITATION STARTED THE
MORNING WITH ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND RAIN AND SNOW. THE
INTENSITY OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS HELPED COOL THE COLUMN AND
CHANGE PRECIP TO ALL SNOW. THEREFORE...NOW EXPECT VALDEZ TO SEE A
GOOD DUMP OF SNOW OUT OF THIS STORM.

BEHIND THE TROUGH SOUTHWEST ALASKA HAS SETTLED INTO A TRUE ARCTIC
ARM MASS FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS WINTER. THE COLD SPOTTY THIS
MORNING APPEARS TO BE ANIAK WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 29 DEGREES BELOW
ZERO. UPSTREAM OF THIS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS CROSSING THE
BERING SEA BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION. MEANWHILE A
MATURE LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC IS TRACKING EASTWARD PUSHING
AN OCCLUDED FRONT NORTHWARD TOWARD THE ALEUTIANS. THE AIR MASS IN
PLACE RIGHT NOW IS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW AS
PRECIPITATION ARRIVES.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
AFTER A FEW DAYS OF DEALING WITH KEY DIFFERENCES IN MODEL GUIDANCE
THE LATEST SOLUTIONS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AS THINGS WIND
DOWN OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ATTENTION
SHIFTS TO THE NORTH PACIFIC WHERE MINOR DIFFERENCES ARISE AS A
TROUGH PUSHES NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN BERING SEA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE BULK OF PRECIP WILL INITIALLY BE
FOCUSED OUT AHEAD OF A WARM OCCLUSION. AS THIS FRONT WEAKENS A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL HELP
FOCUS PRECIPITATION...AND MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON STRENGTH OR
PLACEMENT OF THESE WAVES. WITH A DEEP ARCTIC AIR MASS IN PLACE
OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR SEVERELY
REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING SNOW FROM BRISTOL BAY TO THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS...DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT AND INTENSITY OF THE
PRECIPITATION. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS GENERALLY HIGH...THOUGH IT
DROPS SIGNIFICANTLY WITH DETAILS OUT WEST AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE FROM
EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND TO THE PORTIONS OF THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN. THE PRIMARY SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST
ON SUNDAY...BUT CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
AN UPPER LOW WHICH FORMS OVER INTERIOR ALASKA. THIS COMBINED WITH
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CAUSE SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER IN THESE SAME
AREAS. MEANWHILE...COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE TROUGH COMBINED WITH
UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL PRODUCE STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION. WILL INCREASE WINDS IN THE SEWARD/RESURRECTION BAY AND
WHITTIER/PASSAGE CANAL AREAS WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND THE
COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE ENTIRE WINTER MOVING IN.

TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS THE ARCTIC AIR
MASS SETTLES IN. WITH COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO HOLD STEADY OR CONTINUE TO FALL
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. THE COLD ADVECTION WILL LARGELY COME
TO AN END BY SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO DIE DOWN. THIS WILL
LIKELY BE THE COLDEST NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. OF NOTE...WEST
ANCHORAGE (WHERE THE OFFICIAL CLIMATE STATION IS LOCATED) IS
EXPECTED TO OBSERVE THE FIRST SUB- ZERO TEMPERATURES SINCE
DECEMBER 2013.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH COLD ADVECTION WILL COME TO END
TONIGHT AND LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLACKEN. THUS...TONIGHT
WILL BE COLDER THAN FRIDAY NIGHT. A VERY GRADUAL MODERATION WILL
THEN BEGIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THERE IS A TREND IN
THE GUIDANCE TOWARD MOVING PRECIP INTO BRISTOL BAY FASTER WITH
ARRIVAL SOMETIME ON MONDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL TIGHTEN OUT
AHEAD OF A SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONT...SO WHENEVER SNOW DOES MOVE IN
THERE COULD BE SOME ISSUES WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE SHORT-WAVE BRINGING SNOW TO THE CENTRAL BERING WILL FLATTEN
OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HEIGHTS RISE AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC
TROUGH. THUS...DON'T EXPECT ANY CLOUDS OR PRECIP TO SURVIVE BEYOND
THE EASTERN BERING SEA. THE PACIFIC TROUGH AND SURFACE STORM
SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY PUSH PRECIP AND WARMER AIR NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA INTO THE SOUTHERN
BERING SEA. THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS WILL REMAIN SOLIDLY ON THE COLD
SIDE OF THE SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONT. THEREFORE...IF AND WHEN STEADY
SNOW REACHES THE PRIBILOFS BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY. WILL
ISSUE A BLIZZARD WATCH BEGINNING MONDAY WHEN MOST MODELS INDICATE
A HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR STEADY SNOWFALL.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN SETTING UP WITH AN
AMPLIFIED POSITIVE TILTED RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA BY TUESDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL EXTEND THROUGH
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS NORTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN SIBERIAN REGION.
IN THE SOUTHEAST ALASKA AREA...THERE IS ANOTHER AMPLIFIED RIDGE
BUILDING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTLINE. THIS RIDGE IS
EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHCENTRAL AREA AND INTO THE BRISTOL BAY
REGION. THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW BETWEEN THESE TWO
RIDGES LOCATED SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN ALEUTIANS IN THE NORTH
PACIFIC OCEAN. THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA AREA WILL HAVE OFFSHORE FLOW
WITH THE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS SETTING UP BY WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL
BE SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND ALONG
THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA EXTENDING INTO KODIAK ISLAND. THE
SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE COMPLEX LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC
AND PUSH THROUGH THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. THE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
CENTRAL TO EASTERN ALEUTIANS EXTENDING TO THE WESTERN GULF AND THE
COASTLINES WILL SEE A WARMING TREND. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH THE
COMPLEX NORTH PACIFIC LOW AS IT GRADUALLY MOVES NORTH TOWARDS
KODIAK ISLAND BY WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE
GULF HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WATCH 195. SNOW ADVISORY 141.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 129 130 131 170 179.
         HEAVY FRZ SPRAY 121 126 127 128 129 130 131 138
            139 140 141 150 160 165 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...SB
LONG TERM...PD