Gale Warning 237, NWS Anchorage, AK

425 
FZAK51 PAFC 082334
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
334 PM AKDT SUN MAR 8 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-091230-
334 PM AKDT SUN MAR 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL
DEVELOP A 1009 MB LOW 60 NM SOUTHEAST OF CORDOVA MON MORNING. THE
LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST INTO THE PANHANDLE BY MON NIGHT.

$$

PKZ119-091230-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
334 PM AKDT SUN MAR 8 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF THE COPPER
RIVER DELTA. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ120-091230-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
334 PM AKDT SUN MAR 8 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY ALONG THE
COAST. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ121-091230-
RESURRECTION BAY-
334 PM AKDT SUN MAR 8 2015

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IN THE
MORNING.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-091230-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
334 PM AKDT SUN MAR 8 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-091230-
PORT VALDEZ-
334 PM AKDT SUN MAR 8 2015

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS IN THE EVENING BECOMING E WIND 20 KT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 4 FT. SNOW. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-091230-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
334 PM AKDT SUN MAR 8 2015

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS
3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT EARLY INCREASING TO 45 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-091230-
VALDEZ ARM-
334 PM AKDT SUN MAR 8 2015

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3
FT BUILDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-091230-
PASSAGE CANAL-
334 PM AKDT SUN MAR 8 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT NEAR
WHITTIER AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 4 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 4
FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-091230-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
334 PM AKDT SUN MAR 8 2015

...STORM WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 13 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-091230-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
334 PM AKDT SUN MAR 8 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ132-091230-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
334 PM AKDT SUN MAR 8 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ136-091230-
CHINIAK BAY-
334 PM AKDT SUN MAR 8 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-091230-
MARMOT BAY-
334 PM AKDT SUN MAR 8 2015

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-091230-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
334 PM AKDT SUN MAR 8 2015

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. GUSTS DEVELOPING TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS
AND PASSES. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE
MORNING. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ139-091230-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
334 PM AKDT SUN MAR 8 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5
FT BUILDING TO 9 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ140-091230-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
334 PM AKDT SUN MAR 8 2015

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3
FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-091230-
KACHEMAK BAY-
334 PM AKDT SUN MAR 8 2015

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING W 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6
FT BUILDING TO 10 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
511 AM AKDT SUN MAR 8 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

PROGRESSIVE FLOW PERSISTS THIS MORNING WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING BETWEEN RIDGES OVER EASTERN RUSSIA AND THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS TROUGH IS AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE
BERING STRAIT. A TROUGH IS ALSO SOUTHWEST OF ATTU. A 110 KT ZONAL
JET IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING. AT THE SURFACE...THE JET
IS DRIVING THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF COLD AIR INTO SW AK WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWERS. A LOW SOUTH OF ATTU HAS A FRONT AFFECTING THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO
SOUTHCENTRAL IS PARTIALLY CLEARING SKIES AND ALLOWING FOR WIDESPREAD
BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD SURGE WILL REACH THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN
RANGES THIS AFTERNOON AND FLOW INTO SOUTHCENTRAL TONIGHT AND SUN.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER MAINLAND AK THROUGH MON NIGHT. AT
THE SAME TIME LOW PRESSURE WILL SET UP ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST
AND LINGER INTO MON. THE RESULT WILL BE A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST SETTING UP SIGNIFICANT GAP
FLOWS. MEANWHILE IN THE WEST...THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
SOUTH OF ATTU WILL AFFECT THE ENTIRE ALEUTIAN CHAIN THROUGH MON
NIGHT. THE FORECAST UTILIZES THE EC...WITH SOME GEM REGIONAL TO
CAPTURE GAP OUTFLOW DETAIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY TODAY DEALS WITH THE MOVEMENT OF A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. THERE HAS BEEN SOME CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE KENAI, CHUGACH, AND TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS
EARLY THIS MORNING REVEALING A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS STILL
IN THE AREA. THERE HAVE ALSO BEEN A FEW WEAK ECHOES ON RADAR AS
WELL. THIS DEVELOPMENT IS EARLIER THAN INDICATED ON MODELS WHICH
SHOWED THE CLOUDS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE
AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THIS IS INDICATED
MORE THAN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS BUT THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF
MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS TODAY THAN INDICATED IN THE CURRENT
FORECASTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
BRISTOL BAY AREA THIS MORNING AS MOIST ONSHORE FLOW UPSLOPES
TOWARD THE ALEUTIAN RANGE. THESE SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF IN THE
MORNING WHILE SNOW SHOWERS WILL RE-DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST COAST
OF ALASKA THIS MORNING AND PUSH INLAND DURING THE DAY. A STOUT
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TAP INTO THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND
FROM THE SYSTEM THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION TO MUCH OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION TO INCREASING SHOWER
ACTIVITY...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP LATE THIS MORNING WHICH
WILL CREATE BLOWING SNOW CONCERNS ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND
THE WESTERN CAPES OF THE BRISTOL BAY AREA. VISIBILITIES WILL BE
REDUCED TO ONE MILE OR LESS AT TIMES ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS BUT WILL BE BRIEF DUE TO THE SHOWERY NATURE OF THE
PRECIPITATION. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING BUT WINDS WILL
TAKE A WHILE TO SLACKEN ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THIS WILL LEAD TO
WIND CHILL VALUES FROM 10 BELOW TO 30 BELOW ACROSS THE AREA FROM
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL WEAKEN
ON MONDAY AND BRING AN END TO WIND CHILLS...ALTHOUGH WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...

MUCH OF THE BERING SEA WILL BE RELATIVELY TAME OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AND AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE BERING SEA. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE SEEN OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE THROUGH MONDAY. TOWARD THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS...A VERY
WET AND WINDY PATTERN IS SHAPING UP AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC MOVES SOUTH OF SHEMYA. THIS LOW WILL CLASH
WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE BERING SEA TO CREATE A VERY
COMPACT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS THAT WILL
BRING STORM FORCE WINDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND WIND GUSTS
UPWARDS TO 70 MPH BETWEEN SHEMYA AND ADAK. HEAVY SNOW AND RAIN
WILL FALL ACROSS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS OVER THE NEXT 60 HOURS WITH
NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SMALLER ISLANDS
BETWEEN SHEMYA AND ADAK.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
AS THE LOW OVER THE NORTH GULF COAST DRIFTS EAST AND WEAKENS
TUESDAY...OUTFLOW WINDS ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL ALSO SLOWLY
DIMINISH INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OFFSHORE FLOW AND RIDGING
WILL ALSO TAKE OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY UNDER CLEAR
SKIES THROUGHOUT THE AREA. OVER THE BERING...THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW
ENTERING THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS ON SUNDAY WILL BRING CONTINUED
GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG WITH SNOW MIXING WITH RAIN TO THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS LOW WILL THEN RETURN TO THE NORTH
PACIFIC ON WEDNESDAY AND BECOME ABSORBED IN A COMPLEX LOW THAT WILL
BECOME THE FOCAL POINT FOR THE WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND
LATE NEXT WEEK.

THIS COMPLEX LOW REMAINS A CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE IF ANY IMPROVEMENT IN THE MODEL AGREEMENT
SINCE YESTERDAY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH AN
ARCTIC TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE MAINLAND ON WEDNESDAY...AND
AS A RESULT IS MUCH DEEPER WITH THIS COMPLEX LOW AS IT MOVES INTO
THE GULF ON THU-FRI. ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE COIN...THE EC CONTINUES
TO BE WEAKER WITH THE ARCTIC TROUGH...DEEPER WITH A LOW IN THE
BERING SEA...AND MUCH FURTHER EAST WITH THE GULF LOW WITH RIDGING
OVER THE MAINLAND. AFTER COORDINATION WITH WPC THIS MORNING IT WAS
DETERMINED THAT THE EC WILL BE THE PREFERRED SOLUTION IN THE LONG
TERM FOR THE TIME BEING AS THE GFS IS PROBABLY TOO DEEP WITH
ARCTIC TROUGH WITH A BUILDING NORTHEAST PACIFIC RIDGE. WITH LARGE
VARIABILITY IN THE MODELS...CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST
BEYOND THURSDAY IS QUITE LOW.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...
 GALES...120 127 129 132 150 173 175 176
 STORMS...130 131 177 178
 HVY FRZG SPRY...130 131 137-139 150 160 165 179-181 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MC
LONG TERM...DEK/CC