Gale Warning 181, NWS Anchorage, AK

663 
FZAK51 PAFC 210000
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
300 PM AKST FRI FEB 20 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-211300-
300 PM AKST FRI FEB 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A FRONT OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THIS
EVENING. A RESIDUAL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH THEN REMAINS ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH LATE SAT NIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING.

$$

PKZ119-211300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
300 PM AKST FRI FEB 20 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. NEAR
THE COAST...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
NEAR THE COAST...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ120-211300-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
300 PM AKST FRI FEB 20 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT TOWARD MORNING. 
SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ121-211300-
RESURRECTION BAY-
300 PM AKST FRI FEB 20 2015

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. RAIN.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-211300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
300 PM AKST FRI FEB 20 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT DURING THE EVENING.
GUSTS TO 40 KT DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT NEAR HINCHINBROOK ISLAND.
SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK ISLAND. SEAS
6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-211300-
PORT VALDEZ-
300 PM AKST FRI FEB 20 2015

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ127-211300-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
300 PM AKST FRI FEB 20 2015

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-211300-
VALDEZ ARM-
300 PM AKST FRI FEB 20 2015

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-211300-
PASSAGE CANAL-
300 PM AKST FRI FEB 20 2015

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-211300-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
300 PM AKST FRI FEB 20 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT TOWARD MORNING. SEAS
19 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-211300-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
300 PM AKST FRI FEB 20 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT TOWARD MORNING. SEAS
20 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ132-211300-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
300 PM AKST FRI FEB 20 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
19 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ136-211300-
CHINIAK BAY-
300 PM AKST FRI FEB 20 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT EARLY BECOMING SE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 12 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ137-211300-
MARMOT BAY-
300 PM AKST FRI FEB 20 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13
FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ138-211300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
300 PM AKST FRI FEB 20 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 20 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-211300-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
300 PM AKST FRI FEB 20 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-211300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
300 PM AKST FRI FEB 20 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE
WATERS 1 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-211300-
KACHEMAK BAY-
300 PM AKST FRI FEB 20 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
417 PM AKST THU FEB 19 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE FLOW PATTERN ALOFT LOOKS TO BE TRANSITIONING TO A HIGHER
AMPLITUDE ONE. THE TWO MAIN DRIVERS OF THE FLOW ALOFT ARE A LARGE
AREA OF LOW HEIGHTS CENTERED IN THE NORTHERN PACIFIC SOUTH OF THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE EAST WHICH
LOOKS LIKE THE REINCARNATION OF THE WESTERN NORTH AMERICA SUPER-
RIDGE. AN OCCLUDED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IN THE BERING SEA STRETCHES FROM THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS
TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND BEFORE TURNING SOUTHEAST AND
WEAKENING. THE SOUTHCENTRAL IS MOSTLY DRY BEHIND AN EXITING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND. FOR
THE COMING DAYS IT LOOKS AS IF ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE ACTIVE
FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO SYNOPTIC POWERHOUSES. A SHEARING OUT SYSTEM
IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE ON THE CURRENT FRONT AROUND 50N BUT DOWN
IN THE MID-LATITUDES A STRONGER WAVE IS LURKING.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPCOMING PATTERN ALOFT FROM
A SYNOPTIC PERSPECTIVE. THE CONSENSUS IS THAT THE FIRST UPPER
LEVEL WAVE ALONG THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DEAMPLIFY WHILE THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH STRENGTHENS AND CONTINUES THE
FRONTAL SURGE TO THE NORTH. TIMING OF THE FRONT IS PRETTY WELL
AGREED UPON WITH THE FRONT MOVING ONTO THE NORTH GULF COAST LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAY 1 AND 2)...

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS THAT MAY
DEVELOP AROUND SOUTHCENTRAL OVERNIGHT TONIGHT UNDER WEAK
RIDGING...THE WEATHER IN THE AREA WILL BECOME DOMINATED BY THE
GALE FORCE NORTH PACIFIC FRONT THAT IS BEGINNING TO ENTER THE
SOUTHERN GULF. THIS FRONT WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT KODIAK ISLAND LATE
TONIGHT WITH RAIN AND GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS BEFORE SPREADING INTO
THE NORTHERN GULF BY TOMORROW EVENING. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
TO FALL FROM IT IN THE FORM OF RAIN. AREAS SUCH AS THOMPSON PASS
AND THE COPPER RIVER BASIN WILL INITIALLY START OUT WITH WET SNOW
ON LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT BY SATURDAY EVENING EVEN THESE AREAS
WILL BECOME MOSTLY RAIN.

EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW AS THE FRONT ENTERS THE NORTHERN GULF...WITH RAIN SHOWERS
OVER SOUTHCENTRAL LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
BEFORE BECOMING STEADY RAIN ON SATURDAY. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE THAT A FEW ISOLATED AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN MAY DEVELOP
FROM THE ANCHORAGE BOWL NORTHWARD INTO THE SUSITNA VALLEY AS THE
RAIN SHOWERS BEGIN ON FRIDAY EVENING...HOWEVER WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING THROUGHOUT FRIDAY NIGHT THESE SHOULD NOT BE LONG LIVED OR
WIDESPREAD. RAIN THEN LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AS
THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE GULF COAST AND MOST OF MAINLAND ALASKA
REMAIN UNDER DEEP AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE FRONT OVER THE EASTERN BERING/BRISTOL BAY WILL PUSH INLAND
TONIGHT. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN
MOST AREAS EXCEPT FOR THE AREA DOWNWIND OF THE ALEUTIAN RANGE
WHICH SHOULD REMAIN DOWNSLOPED AND DRY. MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPE
WILL BE AN ISSUE AS WARM AIR ACCOMPANIES THE FRONT JUST OFF THE
SURFACE. WIDESPREAD FREEZING RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED BUT THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY WHEN A TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO RAIN OCCURS OVER THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA. THE FRONT WILL CLEAR TOMORROW BEFORE ANOTHER WAVE
SPREADS A NEW FRONT OVER THE MAINLAND FROM THE SOUTHEAST TOMORROW
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AS WELL AS
GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY WILL REMAIN CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE BERING FROM THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS TO THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS AS THE
FRONT PUSHES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND THEN A NORTH
PACIFIC LOW FOLLOWS CLOSELY ON ITS HEELS FOR FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL CROSS THE AKPEN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN TRACK ALONG THE
COAST TO NEAR THE BERING STRAIT BY SATURDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING
ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE AREA.
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE MOSTLY RAIN FROM DUTCH HARBOR TO COLD
BAY AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW CLOSER TO THE PRIBILOFS. FARTHER
WEST...THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN BERING WILL REMAIN IN A RELATIVELY
BENIGN SHOWERY REGIME BENEATH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE MAINLAND
THROUGH MONDAY ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. THIS WILL KEEP
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN FOCUSED ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
MORE SHOWERY CONDITIONS INLAND. THE RIDGE THEN SHOWS SIGNS OF
BREAKING DOWN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...USHERING IN A MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AS FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM THE SOUTH MORE
TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST. CONFIDENCE IN THE SPECIFIC DETAILS REMAINS
LOW AS MODEL SPREAD INCREASES WITH THE BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE...
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES CAN GENERALLY BE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES AS THE PATTER BEGINS TO CHANGE.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORMS 130 131 138
         GALES 119 120 132 136 137 139 150 160 175 176 177 180
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...ML
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DEK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...ML/CB
LONG TERM...CB