Gale Warning 158, NWS Anchorage, AK

969 
FZAK52 PAFC 110004
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
304 PM AKST TUE FEB 10 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-111300-
304 PM AKST TUE FEB 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BERING SEA THROUGH
THU. A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA WILL MOVE INTO
THE CENTRAL BERING SEA THU AFTERNOON. A 980 MB LOW 400 NM SOUTH OF
SAND POINT WED EVENING WILL MOVE TO 175 NM SOUTH OF COLD BAY AT
985 MB THU AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-111300-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
304 PM AKST TUE FEB 10 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ155-111300-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
304 PM AKST TUE FEB 10 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ160-111300-
BRISTOL BAY-
304 PM AKST TUE FEB 10 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW
AND RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 20 KT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT.

$$

PKZ165-111300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
304 PM AKST TUE FEB 10 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT EXCEPT E 15 KT FROM PORT MOLLER E. SEAS
7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ170-111300-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
304 PM AKST TUE FEB 10 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ171-111300-
UNALASKA BAY-
304 PM AKST TUE FEB 10 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ172-111300-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
304 PM AKST TUE FEB 10 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ173-111300-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
304 PM AKST TUE FEB 10 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ174-111300-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
304 PM AKST TUE FEB 10 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ175-111300-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
304 PM AKST TUE FEB 10 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ176-111300-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
304 PM AKST TUE FEB 10 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ177-111300-
ADAK TO KISKA-
304 PM AKST TUE FEB 10 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ178-111300-
KISKA TO ATTU-
304 PM AKST TUE FEB 10 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ179-111300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
304 PM AKST TUE FEB 10 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ180-111300-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
304 PM AKST TUE FEB 10 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SNOW.
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SNOW.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 20 KT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT.

$$

PKZ181-111300-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
304 PM AKST TUE FEB 10 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT.
.WED...N WIND 35 KT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT.

$$

PKZ185-111300-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
304 PM AKST TUE FEB 10 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...NE 30 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY E OF 177W.
.WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY E OF 177W.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY E OF 177W.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
429 PM AKST MON FEB 9 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WITH
AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND A
FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS THROUGH KODIAK ISLAND
AND ALONG THE GULF COAST. THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE
WESTERN BERING AND ANOTHER OVER THE EASTERN GULF EXTENDING
SOUTHEASTWARD. THE FRONT IS OCCLUDED FROM THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
THROUGH THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND IS A WARM FRONT FROM KODIAK
THROUGH THE GULF COAST. THE COLD FRONT PORTION EXTENDS SOUTHEAST
FROM ABOUT CHIGNIK INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT
TERM. THE CANADIAN MODELS (REGIONAL AND NORTHERN HEMISPHERE) ARE
A LITTLE DIFFERENT FROM THE OTHER MODELS IN HOW THEY HANDLE A LOW
IN THE GULF TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THEY WERE NOT USED FOR
THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. PREFERENCE WAS FOR THE NAM FOR THE FIRST
DAY OR TWO...THEN TRANSITIONING TOWARD THE ECMWF. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOWERED A LITTLE BIT DUE TO THE PATTERN
CHANGE...AND IS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
EXPECTING SOME SNOW THROUGH THE COOK INLET AREA TONIGHT WITH THE
INITIAL ARRIVAL OF THE WARM FRONT. THIS SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO
MUCH...BUT WITH THE OVER-RUNNING OF MOIST AIR OVER THE COLD AND
DRY SURFACE AIR IT SHOULD BE A HIGH POP/LOW QPF EVENT. AS FLOW
BECOMES MORE EASTERLY LATER TONIGHT ANY SNOW SHOULD CUT BACK TO
ISOLATED SHOWERS. WARMER AIR IS ALREADY SURGING INTO KODIAK ISLAND
BUT WILL STALL THERE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN SLOWLY WORK ITS
WAY NORTH ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE GULF COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA AND LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY TODAY...WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM
PUSHING INTO THE BRISTOL BAY REGION. MAINLY THE THE KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY AND DELTA WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW...AS THE WAVE DISSIPATES OVERHEAD. A
CHANCE FOR SNOW AND RAIN WILL PERSIST ACROSS BRISTOL BAY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS A NORTH PACIFIC FRONT CROSSES THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND EVENTUALLY STALLS AND WEAKENS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
BERING. OTHER AREAS AROUND THE THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY DRY...WITH GUSTY AND PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY OFFSHORE
FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A FRONT CURRENTLY TRACKING INTO THE THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND
EASTERN ALEUTIANS WILL BRING ABUNDANT PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY
WINDS TO THE SOUTHEASTERN BERING OVER THE COMING DAYS AS IT STALLS
AND GRADUALLY WEAKENS. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WILL PERSIST ALONG
THE PARTS OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK INTO THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM MORE DRAMATICALLY THIS
EVENING...TRANSITIONING FROM SNOW TO RAIN...THUS GETTING RID OF ANY
BLOWING SNOW CONCERNS. MEANWHILE...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA AND AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN GUSTY GALE FORCE
WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL BERING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US AND CANADA AND A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED SOUTH OF THE TIP OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA
WILL BRING A SERIES OF FRONTAL WAVES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA FROM
MIDWEEK THROUGH AROUND SATURDAY. WITH THE POSITION OF THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS INLAND OVER CANADA AND THE CORE OF THE SOUTH TO NORTH
RUNNING JET ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE OVER THE FAR EASTERN
GULF AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA...THE WARMEST AND MOISTEST OF THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER EVEN WITH
THE MORE MODERATE OVERRUNNING...THE LARGE NUMBER OF FRONTAL WAVES
PUSHING UP OVER THE AREA WILL STILL BRING A DEFINITE WARMING
TREND WITH NUMEROUS OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION. CURRENTLY
PRECIPITATION TYPES ARE LOOKING TO BE PREDOMINATELY RAIN
IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE GULF COAST CHANGING OVER TO SNOW NOT FAR
INLAND. AS THE WARMING PROGRESSES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK SOME
ISOLATED FREEZING RAIN MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE IN COLD WIND
SHELTERED VALLEYS OR WINDY ONES DRAWING AIR DIRECTLY FROM THE
INTERIOR. OVERALL...THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD IMPACTS FROM
MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES CONTINUES TO BE TRENDING GRADUALLY DOWN
FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS.

IN THE MORE EXTENDED TIME PERIODS MODELS ARE NOW SUGGESTING A
SECOND PATTERN SHIFT WITH A LARGE NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AROUND SUNDAY WITH A COUPLE
OF STRONG LOWS SPINNING UP ALONG ITS SOUTHWEST SIDE AND TRACKING
TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 40N AND 50N SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS.
FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA THE POSITION OF THIS RIDGE WOULD START A
DRYING TREND WHILE WARM AND PERIODICALLY WET SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
WOULD BE DIRECTED AT KODIAK ISLAND AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA AS WELL AS
THE ALASKA PENINSULA WITH VARIOUS SURFACE LOWS TRACKING WEST DOWN
THE ALEUTIANS.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM 138
         GALE 119 120 127 130 131 132 136 137 139 150 155
         160 165 170 171 172 173 174 175 176 177 179 180
         181 185
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 127 139 179 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TP
LONG TERM...JR