Gale Warning 116, NWS Anchorage, AK

978 
FZAK61 PAFC 091233
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
333 AM AKST MON FEB 9 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-100245-
333 AM AKST MON FEB 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL
SLOWLY PUSH NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH TUE NIGHT. A 992
MB LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR 54N 145W TUE AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE TO 58N
145W AT 991 MB BY TUE NIGHT.


$$

PKZ351-100245-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
333 AM AKST MON FEB 9 2015

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ352-100245-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
333 AM AKST MON FEB 9 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT BECOMING 30 TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 TO 22 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 21 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

789 
FZAK61 PAFC 100027
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
327 PM AKST MON FEB 9 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-101415-
327 PM AKST MON FEB 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF WILL SLOWLY PUSH
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH TUE NIGHT. A 992 MB LOW
WILL DEVELOP NEAR 57N 145W TUE NIGHT AND MOVE TO 60N 147W WED
AFTERNOON AT 996 MB.

$$

PKZ351-101415-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
327 PM AKST MON FEB 9 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT BECOMING SE 15 TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15 TO 19 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...S WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ352-101415-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
327 PM AKST MON FEB 9 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 TO 22 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT BECOMING S 10 TO 20 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 TO 20 FT.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

575 
FZAK61 PAFC 101221
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
321 AM AKST TUE FEB 10 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-110230-
321 AM AKST TUE FEB 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 990 MB LOW WILL FORM NEAR 55N 144W THIS AFTERNOON THEN MOVE TO
50N 146W AT 994 MB WED MORNING THEN MOVE INLAND.

$$

PKZ351-110230-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
321 AM AKST TUE FEB 10 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 12 TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT BECOMING S 10 TO 25 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ352-110230-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
321 AM AKST TUE FEB 10 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

725 
FZAK61 PAFC 101752 AAA
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
852 AM AKST TUE FEB 10 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-110800-
852 AM AKST TUE FEB 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 990 MB LOW WILL FORM NEAR 55N 144W THIS AFTERNOON THEN MOVE TO
50N 146W AT 994 MB WED MORNING THEN MOVE INLAND.

$$

PKZ351-110800-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
852 AM AKST TUE FEB 10 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS BUILDING 12 TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT BECOMING S 10 TO 25 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ352-110800-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
852 AM AKST TUE FEB 10 2015

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 16 TO 22 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
534 AM AKST SUN FEB 8 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER NORTHEASTERN RUSSIA WITH A LOW NOW
JUST SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES
STRONG NORTHEASTERLY FLOW MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST AND BERING
SEA. THIS FLOW HAS ALSO ADVECTED SOME COLD AIR FROM MAINLAND
ALASKA OUT OVER THE BERING. THE SURFACE LOW IS CLOSER TOWARDS
SOUTHERN KODIAK ISLAND AND WITH THE NORTHEAST WINDS IS BRINGING
NEW SNOW TO THE ISLAND. THE SNOW COMBINED WITH THE WINDS IS
PRODUCING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE HAVING A LOT OF PROBLEMS WITH THE LOW NEAR KODIAK
ISLAND. SATELLITE SHOWS A PLETHORA OF LOWS THROUGHOUT THE GULF AND
ALL OF THE MODELS ARE HAVING ISSUES RESOLVING THESE SMALL
CIRCULATIONS WHICH IS PART OF THE REASON WHY THEY ARE ALSO
STRUGGLING WITH THE MAIN LOW. THERE IS ADDITIONAL DISCREPANCY ON
THE HANDLING OF THE MAIN CORE OF SNOW ALONG THE GULF COAST AND FOR
KODIAK ISLAND. THE NAM HAS BEEN DOING THE BEST WITH THE COMPLEX
LOW PLACEMENT BUT IS ALSO THE BIGGEST OUTLIER WITH PRECIPITATION
FIELDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
AS THE LOW NEAR KODIAK MOVES FURTHER SOUTHWEST AND WEAKENS...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE SOUTHCENTRAL WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
WHICH WILL KEEP WINDS IN THE AREA ON A DOWNWARD TREND. UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL ALSO BE CHANGING TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY WHICH WILL
BRING BACK SNOW TO THE GULF COAST TODAY. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
ALSO BRING IN MORE CLOUD COVER FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHCENTRAL WHICH
WILL HELP TO MODERATE THE TEMPERATURES. FOR KODIAK THE HEAVIEST
BAND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE WEST DURING THE MORNING
WHICH WILL END BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA
THE SURFACE LOW NEAR KODIAK ISLAND BEGINS TO FILL AND WEAKEN
SLOWLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD TAPER DOWN EARLY T0DAY
ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND BRISTOL BAY AND THEREFORE THE
ADVISORY TIMES WILL BE ADJUSTED TO EXPIRE AT NOON. THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA ADVISORY WILL BE KEPT INTACT AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
WILL KEEP A TIGHTER GRADIENT OVER THIS AREA. SNOW SHOWERS ALONG
THE ALASKA PENINSULA ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS JUST TO THE SOUTH. A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING
IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL MOVE UP TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA LATER ON
MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM PUSHES A WARM FRONT BRINGING A MIX OF
PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MAX GALE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA. THIS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM SHOULD BE
MONITORED FOR UPDATES AS STORM FORCE WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS

WEAK INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE BERING THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE BERING WILL BE STRONGEST
ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN WATERS TODAY AS A STRONG 850MB
JET DIVES TOWARD THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
TAPER DOWN SLIGHTLY TONIGHT WITH THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS MONDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT MAX GALES WITH THIS
STORM SYSTEM WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF STORM FORCE WINDS TO DEVELOP
MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT IS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...A RATHER LARGE VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW CENTERED WELL SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WILL
SLOW AS IT DRIFTS EAST TUESDAY TO BECOME STATIONARY SOUTH OF THE
ALASKA PENINSULA AND WESTERN GULF WHERE IT WILL REMAIN THROUGH
LATE WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OUT OF AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL
AMPLIFY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND GULF OF ALASKA ON MONDAY
THEN SHIFT EAST OVER SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA TUESDAY
BEFORE SETTING UP RESIDENCE A AS CONTINENTAL SCALE BLOCKING RIDGE
STRETCHING ACROSS THE WESTERN US AND WESTERN CANADA. THESE TWO
VERY LARGE SCALE FEATURES WILL STEER WARMER MOISTER AIR AND A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS UP INTO THE GULF THROUGH THE WEEK.

WHILE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE
INDIVIDUAL LOW PRESSURE WAVES HAVE INCREASED SINCE YESTERDAY THERE
IS STILL GOOD CONSISTENCY IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN...SO
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN THE PATTERN SHIFT OCCURRING AND THE
TREND OF INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. WITH COLD AIR WELL
ENTRENCHED INLAND FREEZING RAIN CONTINUES TO BE A CONCERN AS DOES
ALL OTHER PRECIPITATION TYPES HOWEVER THE SPECIFIC TRACK OF THE
INDIVIDUAL LOWS (WHICH CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON) WILL BE KEY IN
DETERMINING WHICH AREAS GET WHAT PRECIPITATION TYPES. STRONG WINDS
ESPECIALLY IN THE MARINE AREAS WILL ALSO LIKELY BE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT THROUGH THE WEEK WITH MANY OF THE FRONTAL WAVES.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD 171 WIND CHILL 152 155 161
MARINE...

STORM 130 138

GALES 120 120 127 128 137 139 150 155 170 172-177 179 180 181 185

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 126 127 128 130 138 139 140 141 165 170
179 180 185

NONE. FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DK
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KH
LONG TERM...JR