Brisk Wind Advisory 9, NWS Anchorage, AK

019 
FZAK52 PAFC 100006
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
306 PM AKST MON FEB 9 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-101330-
306 PM AKST MON FEB 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS
WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND EASTERN
BERING SEA THROUGH WED AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-101330-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
306 PM AKST MON FEB 9 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ155-101330-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
306 PM AKST MON FEB 9 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ160-101330-
BRISTOL BAY-
306 PM AKST MON FEB 9 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SNOW.
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 20 KT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT.

$$

PKZ165-101330-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
306 PM AKST MON FEB 9 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ170-101330-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
306 PM AKST MON FEB 9 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ171-101330-
UNALASKA BAY-
306 PM AKST MON FEB 9 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ172-101330-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
306 PM AKST MON FEB 9 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ173-101330-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
306 PM AKST MON FEB 9 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.WED...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ174-101330-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
306 PM AKST MON FEB 9 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ175-101330-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
306 PM AKST MON FEB 9 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ176-101330-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
306 PM AKST MON FEB 9 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ177-101330-
ADAK TO KISKA-
306 PM AKST MON FEB 9 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ178-101330-
KISKA TO ATTU-
306 PM AKST MON FEB 9 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ179-101330-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
306 PM AKST MON FEB 9 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ180-101330-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
306 PM AKST MON FEB 9 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY NEAR THE ICE EDGE.
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. FREEZING SPRAY NEAR THE ICE EDGE.
SNOW.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT.

$$

PKZ181-101330-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
306 PM AKST MON FEB 9 2015

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT.
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT.
.WED...N WIND 35 KT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT.
.THU...N WIND 30 KT.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT.

$$

PKZ185-101330-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
306 PM AKST MON FEB 9 2015

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY E OF 177W.
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY E OF 177W.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY E OF 177W.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
432 PM AKST SUN FEB 8 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW STRETCHING FROM THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS ACROSS KODIAK ISLAND TO THE GULF COAST...CENTERED JUST
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF KODIAK ISLAND. A FRONT WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED
SURFACE LOWS STRETCHES FROM THE CENTER OF THIS LOW TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST...ESSENTIALLY RIGHT ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE ATMOSPHERE
WITH THIS FRONT IS FAIRLY UNSTABLE WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS VISIBLE
ACROSS THE GULF. NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND
ALEUTIANS WITH ITS ASSOCIATED CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS. THUS THE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE. THE HI-RES MODELS WERE PREFERRED DUE TO THEIR
BETTER DEPICTION OF SMALL SCALE FEATURES THAT ARE IMPORTANT TO
THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)...
A WEAKENING BUT UNSTABLE LOW MOVING INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE WESTERN KENAI THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST WHERE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
WILL ALSO CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW NEAR SEWARD AND WHITTIER.
THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS MAY TRAVEL
OVER THE CHUGACH MOUNTAINS INTO THE ANCHORAGE BOWL THIS
EVENING...HOWEVER WITH THE DRY LOW LEVELS FROM CONTINUED
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW THESE WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE GROUND
(OR BY VERY LIGHT AND SHORT LIVED IF THEY DO). THIS SAME LOW IS
EXPECTED TO BRING ONE OF THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALLS OF THE SEASON TO
CORDOVA...ESPECIALLY IF NUMEROUS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO REFORM AND MOVE
OVER THE AREA AS THEY DID EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS
WILL THEN REMAIN OVER THE GULF COAST WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING INTO
TUESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING IN ADVANCE OF A FRONT MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN GULF TUESDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL THEN SPREAD INTO
THE NORTH GULF LATE TUESDAY...BRINGING A PATTERN CHANGE TO MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS POSITIONED THROUGH THE BROOKS RANGE
RESULTING IN CONTINUED NORTHERLY WIND OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR MAJORITY OF THE
REGION. THE WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH AND THE TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO WARM...WHICH WILL KEEP THE REGION ABOVE
WIND CHILL ADVISORY LEVELS. THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS HAVE AN
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE ALEUTIAN RANGE. THIS WILL
PRODUCE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF KING SALMON THIS EVENING.
BY MONDAY A WEATHER FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS FROM THE PACIFIC SIDE. THIS WILL BRING WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AND GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN CAPES AND ALASKA
PENINSULA BY TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...THERE WILL CONTINUE
TO BE WEAK SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND THE
CENTRAL TO EASTERN BERING SEA AREA. THERE WILL BE AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES ALONG THE ALEUTIAN
CHAIN AND THE PRIBILOF ISLAND THROUGH MONDAY. THIS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL ELONGATED CLOSED LOW OVER THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING TOWARDS DUTCH HARBOR. THE
CENTRAL BERING SEA HAS AN UPPER LEVEL NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST JET
STREAK OF 70 KNOTS WITH GALE FORCE WINDS REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE.
THESE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK. A NORTH
PACIFIC LOW WILL TRACK TOWARD THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WITH AN
ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS
REGION BY MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH UPPER
END GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN ALEUTIANS. THERE
WILL BE ABUNDANT PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WILL SPILL
OVER INTO THE BERING SIDE THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...THE INITIAL FRONTAL
SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH WILL BE
SETTING UP STATION FOR QUITE A WHILE SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
ROTATE INLAND AS IT FALLS APART ON WEDNESDAY. NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY GAP WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT IN
LOCATIONS SUCH AS SEWARD...PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND...THOMPSON PASS
AND THE COPPER RIVER DELTA AS THE OFFSHORE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
FAIRLY RAPIDLY TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH A CONTINUING SUPPLY OF LOW
LEVEL COLD INLAND AIR AND OVERRUNNING MOISTURE...WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THESE LOCATIONS FROM A SNOW AND/OR MIXED
PRECIPITATION PERSPECTIVE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ALONG THE
WEST SIDE OF THE CHUGACH MOUNTAINS DOWNSLOPING EAST TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW WILL WRING OUT MUCH OF THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE KEEPING
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LIGHTER...AT LEAST FOR THIS INITIAL FRONT.

NUMEROUS ADDITIONAL TROUGHS AND FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL ROTATE UP AND
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH EACH ONE WARMING AND MOISTENING THE AIR MASS A BIT
MORE. RECENT MODEL RUNS (COMPARED WITH THOSE OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS) HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ABOUT THE AMOUNT OF WARM AIR
BEING PUMPED UP INTO THE AREA BY SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ARE NOW ALSO
DIRECTING THE WETTER SYSTEMS A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE EAST.
NEVERTHELESS...THE TREND OF STEADILY INCREASING TEMPERATURES WITH
PERIODIC ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION STILL LOOKS QUITE SOUND.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 127 128 130 131 132 138 139 150 155 160 165 170 171
         172 173 174 175 176 177 179 180 181 185
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 126 127 128 130 139 140 141
         165 170 179 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DEK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD
LONG TERM...JR