Gale Warning 10, NWS Anchorage, AK

737 
FZAK61 PAFC 080015
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
315 PM AKST WED JAN 7 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-081515-
315 PM AKST WED JAN 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO 54N 154W THU AFTERNOON AT 986 MB
THEN MOVE TO 56N 152W AT 1003 MB FRI AFTERNOON. A STRONG FRONT
WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF WED NIGHT THROUGH THU AND
WEAKEN THU NIGHT.

$$

PKZ351-081515-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
315 PM AKST WED JAN 7 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT.

$$

PKZ352-081515-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
315 PM AKST WED JAN 7 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT BECOMING S 10 TO 25 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT.
.FRI...S WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT.

$$

443 
FZAK61 PAFC 081215
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
315 AM AKST THU JAN 8 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-090245-
315 AM AKST THU JAN 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 983 MB LOW NEAR 53N 153W WILL MOVE TO 56N 153W FRIDAY MORNING AT
997 MB THEN WEAKEN AND STALL THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT.

$$

PKZ351-090245-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
315 AM AKST THU JAN 8 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT.

$$

PKZ352-090245-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
315 AM AKST THU JAN 8 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...E WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT.

$$

409 
FZAK61 PAFC 090023
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
323 PM AKST THU JAN 8 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-091415-
323 PM AKST THU JAN 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A FRONT IN THE NORTHERN GULF WILL WEAKEN THU EVENING. A 988 MB LOW
NEAR 55N 156W WILL MOVE TO 56N 154W FRI AFTERNOON THEN STALL AND
WEAKEN THROUGH SAT.

$$

PKZ351-091415-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
323 PM AKST THU JAN 8 2015

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 TO 22 FT.

$$

PKZ352-091415-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
323 PM AKST THU JAN 8 2015

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT BECOMING 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9
TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...E WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 12 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 15 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
440 PM AKST TUE JAN 6 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A HIGH LATITUDE CLOSED BLOCKING HIGH IS CENTERED OVER FAR EASTERN
SIBERIA WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING DUE SOUTH ACROSS THE BERING
SEA. A CLOSED UPPER LOW WHICH TRACKED SOUTHWARD ACROSS MAINLAND
ALASKA IS NOW TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN BERING SEA.
THIS BROUGHT A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AND DRY AIR TO SOUTHWEST
ALASKA. AS THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD AIR ADVECTION MOVE
OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE BERING SEA AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF
STRATO-CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED...AND THERE ARE LIKELY SOME SNOW
SHOWERS FALLING OUT OF IT.

MEANWHILE A DEEP TROUGH AND LARGE CUT-OFF LOW ARE CENTERED OVER
THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ALONG THE WESTERN US
COAST ALL THE WAY UP TO SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND THE EASTERN GULF. A
WARM FRONT JUST OUT AHEAD OF THIS IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS
THE GULF TOWARD KODIAK ISLAND AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THIS IS
THE BEGINNING OF A TRANSITION BACK TO WARMER AND MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND OF ALASKA.

LASTLY...A HIGH AMPLITUDE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS LIFTING NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...TRACKING UP THE
WEST SIDE OF THE BERING SEA RIDGE. THERE IS A WEAK LOW (SOMEWHERE
AROUND 999 MB) AT THE SURFACE PRODUCING SOLID GALE FORCE WINDS
THANKS TO THE VERY STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS BETWEEN IT
AND THE SURFACE HIGH OVER EASTERN SIBERIA (AROUND 1040 MB).

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THERE ARE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE WITH PLACEMENT OF THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW (AND SURFACE LOW WHICH FORMS UNDERNEATH IT) AS IT
STALLS OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS CREATES SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND AND PRECIP FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN BERING
AND PRIBILOF ISLANDS. HOWEVER...MORE SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES
ARISE WITH TRACK AND STRENGTH OF A SURFACE LOW MOVING OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. SOLUTIONS VARY FROM
A WEAK LOW RAPIDLY TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD TO THE EASTERN BERING TO
A MUCH STRONGER LOW STALLING OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. THESE
DIFFERENCES HAVE THE GREATEST IMPACT ON THE WIND FORECASTS...BUT
CERTAINLY AFFECT PRECIP FORECAST AND EXTENT OF LOW LEVEL WARMING
OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. THE GFS SHOWS THE
BEST RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY WITH ITS DEPICTION OF A WEAK FAST
MOVING LOW (FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY THE ECMWF). SINCE INHERITED GRIDS
ARE CLOSE TO THIS SOLUTION WILL STICK WITH IT UNTIL AND UNLESS SEE
EVIDENCE THAT THE DEEPER AND SLOWER SOLUTION IS CORRECT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH ON WHERE THE MAIN CORRIDOR OF
PRECIP WILL SET UP THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...FROM KODIAK ISLAND TO
BRISTOL BAY AND KUSKOKWIM DELTA. THERE IS ALSO HIGH CONFIDENCE
THAT SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER AIR WILL OVERRIDE THE COLDER AIR IN
PLACE CREATING GOOD POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN OVER SOUTHWEST
ALASKA. THE MODEL DIFFERENCES RESULT IN MUCH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXACT TIMING OF PRECIP AND TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO FREEZING
RAIN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ALSO BELOW NORMAL AS YOU HEAD NORTH
AND EAST TO INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA...FOCUSED AROUND THE UNCERTAINTY IN ARRIVAL TIME OF PRECIP
AND WARMER AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO KODIAK ISLAND THROUGH THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY IN THE VICINITY OF A WARM FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN
GULF AS DRY NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS OVER SOUTHCENTRAL
AK. A WETTER AND WARMER PATTERN WILL THEN RETURN TO THE AREA
STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE EXTENDING OVER SOUTHEAST
ALASKA SHIFTS EASTWARD AND SOUTHERLY FLOW IS RE-ESTABLISHED...WITH
A WEAK LOW APPROACHING KODIAK ISLAND FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS OVERRUNNING PRECIP BEGINS AND NORTHERLY
FLOW KEEPS COLD AIR ENTRENCHED AT THE SURFACE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
FREEZING RAIN APPEARS TO BE OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
KENAI PENINSULA...WITH STRONG CROSS BARRIER FLOW LOOKING TO KEEP
ANCHORAGE AND THE MAT-SU MOSTLY DRY AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER...ANY
PRECIP THAT DOES FALL IN THESE AREAS WOULD LIKELY BE IN THE FORM
OF FREEZING RAIN...SO KEPT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW AND WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE BIG STORY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WILL BE THE THREAT OF
FREEZING RAIN. AREA SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE
RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER...THE WARM FRONT CROSSING THE GULF WILL
CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD INTO BRISTOL BAY LATE TONIGHT AND ON UP TO
THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH ABOVE FREEZING AIR
OVERRIDING THE SUB-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE THREAT OF
FREEZING RAIN WILL BE BRIEF ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA WITH
SURFACE FLOW SHIFTING FROM NORTHEAST TO EAST DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND STRONG DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
ALEUTIAN RANGE. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO STEADY PRECIP AND ALSO
CAUSE SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO RISE QUICKLY ABOVE FREEZING. THE
BIGGER CONCERN FOR FREEZING RAIN WITH SOME ICE ACCUMULATION IS
DILLINGHAM NORTH AND WEST WHERE PRECIP WILL BE ENHANCED IN UPSLOPE
FLOW AND WHERE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL HOLD IN SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES
AT THE SURFACE FOR A MUCH LONGER TIME. THERE IS EVIDENCE TO ISSUE
A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE. THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN WHEN TEMPS WILL WARM UP ENOUGH TO END THE FREEZING
RAIN THREAT FROM DILLINGHAM NORTH AND WEST. FOR NOW WILL PUT
ADVISORY OUT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN IN THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH SUCH A COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE RIGHT
NOW DON'T HAVE A WHOLE LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN WHEN AIR MASS WILL
WARM ENOUGH FOR FREEZING RAIN. IN ADDITION...DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS
MAY LIMIT PRECIP INLAND. FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION A CHANCE OF
FREEZING RAIN THERE. THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
REMAIN DRY UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY
AND MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR HEAD INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
WHILE COLD AIR MOVES SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING SEA
WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTER WARMER AIR AND MOISTURE WILL FEED IN
BEHIND THE UPPER LOW CENTER. THIS WILL INCREASE BAROCLINICITY AND
LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW. WITH A WELL DEFINED LOW AND
AMPLE MOISTURE WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM WILL INCREASE POPS ACROSS
THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND PRIBILOF ISLANDS TO LIKELY OR HIGHER.
THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS WILL REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE LOW SO
PRECIP WILL FALL AS ALL SNOW.

OUT OVER THE WESTERN BERING AND ALEUTIANS THE WEEKS LONG PATTERN
OF STORMS TRACKING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN
BERING WILL COME TO AN END. AS THE CURRENT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EXITS
TO THE NORTH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD
IN. THIS WILL KEEP STORM SYSTEMS SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIAN CHAIN (AT LEAST TEMPORARILY). THUS...QUIET CONDITIONS
WILL SETTLE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE FORECAST PATTERN REMAINS RATHER COMPLEX THROUGH THE LONG TERM
WITH SPECIFIC DETAILS TOUGH TO PIN DOWN. BIG PICTURE WISE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES UP THROUGH
CANADA AND INTO NORTHERN ALASKA WHILE A BROAD AND COMPLEX UPPER
TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH PACIFIC WITH PERIODIC
INCURSIONS INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA...ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA. THE
SUPPORTING JET STREAM REMAINS TO THE SOUTH BETWEEN 30N AND 40N
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE STRONGEST LOWS GENERALLY
FOLLOWING IT AND ALSO REMAINING WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
BITS OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND SMALLER LOWS HOWEVER PERIODICALLY
BREAK OFF AND LIFT NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA...AND SPIN UP AT
TIMES AS THEY INTERACT WITH STRONG THERMAL GRADIENTS.

ALL THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE BIG PICTURE SOLUTION
OF THE LARGE LOW COMPLEX REMAINING IN PLACE WITH THE BLOCKING RIDGE
PERSISTENT OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF THE
RIDGE BREAKING DOWN THROUGH THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS. SO HAVE GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE TREND OF TROUGHS AND FRONTS ROTATING UP AND
BRINGING A NUMBER OF ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION AND GENERALLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER THE SPECIFIC TIMING OF EACH WILL BE VERY
TOUGH TO FORECAST GIVEN THE COMPLEXITY OF THE BIG MESSY UPPER
TROUGH TO THE SOUTH AND THAT THE FACT THAT MOST OF WHAT WILL BE
TRACKING NORTH WILL BE SMALL LOWER ENERGY FEATURES THAT THEY
MODELS WILL STRUGGLE TO RESOLVE.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY 161.
MARINE...GALE 120 127 130 131 138 150 160 178 180.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 160 180 181 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&