Special Weather Statement, NWS Aberdeen, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1220 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1042 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

DYNAMIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER NEBRASKA CONTINUES TO
MOVE NORTHWARD. DRY SLOT MOVING IN AS WELL AND BEGINNING TO SEE
PRECIP BECOME MORE SCT IN NATURE. EXPECT MORE PRECIP TO FILL IN
THROUGH THE DAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS INCREASINGLY LIKELY BY
AFTERNOON. GREATEST SVR THREAT IS SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT
CERTAINLY COULD SEE A FEW STRONG AND MARGINALLY SVR STORMS LATER
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST AS A VERY DYNAMIC SPRING STORM
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH AND LIFT NORTHEAST. THE
SNOW LINE HAS SHIFTED INTO WESTERN COUNTIES...AND WITH ADDITIONAL
SNOW THROUGH THE MORNING...WILL ADD A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THE
WESTERN HALF OF JONES/SUDDENLY COUNTIES. THE BULK OF SNOW WILL
STILL PROCEED NORTH INTO WESTERN CORSON/DEWEY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE
IN EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS DEPICTED IN LATEST GUIDANCE. CONVECTION
IS STILL EXPECTED TO FORM IN FSD CWA AND LIFT NORTHWARDS INTO
EASTERN SD. PROFILES SUPPORT ELEVATED CONVECTION WITH AROUND 1000
J/KG MUCAPE AND STRONG SPEED SHEAR. BUT...AS WE ARE ON THE COOL
SIDE OF THE WARM FRONT...SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED TO HAIL.
TROWAL PRECIP WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY...WITH VARYING DEGREES OF
SATURATION WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...SO SNOWFALL ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SPORADIC AND UNLIKELY TO LEAD TO
ACCUMULATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

MODEL AGREEMENT TODAY IS MARGINAL AT BEST.  WHILE THEY DO AGREE ON A
S/W RIDGE AND DRY CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AFTER THAT THERE
ARE SOME FAIRLY BIG DIFFERENCES.  THE ECMWF IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH A WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS IS SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH.  LATE IN THE
PERIOD THEY COME BACK INTO LINE WITH ANOTHER MAJOR STORM FORMING
OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS.  THAT SYSTEMS EFFECTS WILL BE FELT NEXT
WEEKEND.  OUTSIDE OF TUESDAY...UNFORTUNATELY THE POPS WILL REMAIN
BROADBRUSHED AS SFC FRONT STALLS OVER THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH
ENERGY ALOFT.  MIXED LAYER CAPES WILL SUPPORT THUNDER THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  TEMPERATURES OVERALL SHOULD AVERAGE OUT ABOUT NORMAL FOR
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

EXPECT MVF/IFR CIGS TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. A RAIN AND
SNOW MIX IS LIKELY AT KMBG REDUCING VSBY BELOW 1 NM AT TIMES.
THUNDER IS POSSIBLE AT KABR AND KATY 18Z-02Z.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ003-015.

MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...SCARLETT
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...SCARLETT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
401 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

MNZ039-046-SDZ004>011-016>023-034>037-048-051-110915-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS-
WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-CODINGTON-GRANT-
HAMLIN-DEUEL-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-LYMAN-BUFFALO-
401 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHWARDS WHILE WEAKENING. THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT IS LOW...HOWEVER STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS UNLIKELY.

SDZ003-015-033-045-110915-
CORSON-DEWEY-STANLEY-JONES-
401 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA AND NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HEAVY WET SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA RESULTING
IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

CONNELLY

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
214 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0212 PM     HEAVY SNOW       9 WSW MCINTOSH          45.87N 101.52W
05/10/2015  M5.0 INCH        CORSON             SD   COCORAHS

            POWER OUT

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1500287

TMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
231 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     HEAVY SNOW       TIMBER LAKE             45.43N 101.07W
05/10/2015  M6.0 INCH        DEWEY              SD   CO-OP OBSERVER

            LOTS OF MELTING THROUGHOUT THE DAY

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1500288

TMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
232 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0231 PM     HEAVY SNOW       14 NNE ISABEL           45.58N 101.32W
05/10/2015  M8.0 INCH        CORSON             SD   CO-OP OBSERVER

            HEAVY WET SNOW

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1500289

TMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
233 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0233 PM     HEAVY SNOW       5 NW FIRESTEEL          45.48N 101.36W
05/10/2015  M12.0 INCH       CORSON             SD   COCORAHS

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1500290

TMK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
311 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

SDZ019-020-022-102100-
CODINGTON SD-CLARK SD-HAMLIN SD-
311 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 311 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
KELLERTON CHURCH...OR 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WATERTOWN...MOVING NORTH
AT 30 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WATERTOWN...HAYTI...FLORENCE...HENRY...HAZEL...KELLERTON CHURCH...
SANDY SHORE REC AREA...LAKE KAMPESKA...TINKERTOWN...WATERTOWN CITY
PARK...GOOSE LAKE...THOMAS...MEDICINE LAKE...HAMLIN EDUCATION
CENTER...MEMORIAL PARK CAMPING SITE...LONG LAKE...PELICAN LAKE AND
GRASS LAKE.

LAT...LON 4459 9718 4458 9743 4506 9754 4508 9716
TIME...MOT...LOC 2011Z 176DEG 26KT 4473 9733

SCARLETT