Alert archive / South Dakota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2015

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 5, NWS Aberdeen, SD

May 10, 2015Buffalo County, Hand County, South Dakota

NWS Aberdeen, SD issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 10, 2015, 3:30 PM CDT for Buffalo County, Hand County, South Dakota. It was in force for 17 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 10, 2015, 3:30 PM CDT (20:30 UTC)
Expired: May 10, 2015, 3:47 PM CDT
In force: 17 min
Issued by: NWS Aberdeen, SD
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.5 in
Wind: 50.0 mph

Counties Buffalo County, SD, Hand County, SD

The radar

The Aberdeen radar (KABR), 150 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:31 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Aberdeen, SD (KABR), launched 12:00Z, 8.5 hours before the alert went out and 94 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 483 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 43 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 389 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 692 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

504 
WUUS53 KABR 102030
SVRABR
SDC017-059-102115-
/O.NEW.KABR.SV.W.0005.150510T2030Z-150510T2115Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
330 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ABERDEEN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  EASTERN BUFFALO COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...
  SOUTHERN HAND COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...

* UNTIL 415 PM CDT

* AT 330 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR GANN
  VALLEY...OR 19 MILES EAST OF FORT THOMPSON...MOVING NORTH AT 30
  MPH.

  HAZARD...PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL. 

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

  IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT 
           DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES. 

* THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  PLEASANT VALLEY COUNTRY CHURCH AROUND 405 PM CDT.
  SUNSHINE BIBLE ACADEMY AROUND 410 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A WELL-BUILT STRUCTURE. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 4399 9918 4455 9919 4450 9873 4420 9885
      4419 9893 4399 9893 4395 9894
TIME...MOT...LOC 2030Z 191DEG 24KT 4405 9904 

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

SCARLETT

1 follow-up statement

364 
WWUS53 KABR 102047
SVSABR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
347 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

SDC017-059-102057-
/O.CAN.KABR.SV.W.0005.000000T0000Z-150510T2115Z/
BUFFALO SD-HAND SD-
347 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN BUFFALO AND SOUTHERN
HAND COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.  HOWEVER SMALL HAIL IS
STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 4399 9918 4455 9919 4450 9873 4420 9885
      4419 9893 4399 9893 4395 9894
TIME...MOT...LOC 2042Z 191DEG 24KT 4416 9901 

$$

SCARLETT

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Aberdeen, SD wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 10, 12:20 PM CDT, 3 hours 10 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 10, 12:20 PM CDT, 3 hours 10 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1220 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1042 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

DYNAMIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER NEBRASKA CONTINUES TO
MOVE NORTHWARD. DRY SLOT MOVING IN AS WELL AND BEGINNING TO SEE
PRECIP BECOME MORE SCT IN NATURE. EXPECT MORE PRECIP TO FILL IN
THROUGH THE DAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS INCREASINGLY LIKELY BY
AFTERNOON. GREATEST SVR THREAT IS SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT
CERTAINLY COULD SEE A FEW STRONG AND MARGINALLY SVR STORMS LATER
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST AS A VERY DYNAMIC SPRING STORM
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH AND LIFT NORTHEAST. THE
SNOW LINE HAS SHIFTED INTO WESTERN COUNTIES...AND WITH ADDITIONAL
SNOW THROUGH THE MORNING...WILL ADD A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THE
WESTERN HALF OF JONES/SUDDENLY COUNTIES. THE BULK OF SNOW WILL
STILL PROCEED NORTH INTO WESTERN CORSON/DEWEY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE
IN EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS DEPICTED IN LATEST GUIDANCE. CONVECTION
IS STILL EXPECTED TO FORM IN FSD CWA AND LIFT NORTHWARDS INTO
EASTERN SD. PROFILES SUPPORT ELEVATED CONVECTION WITH AROUND 1000
J/KG MUCAPE AND STRONG SPEED SHEAR. BUT...AS WE ARE ON THE COOL
SIDE OF THE WARM FRONT...SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED TO HAIL.
TROWAL PRECIP WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY...WITH VARYING DEGREES OF
SATURATION WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...SO SNOWFALL ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SPORADIC AND UNLIKELY TO LEAD TO
ACCUMULATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

MODEL AGREEMENT TODAY IS MARGINAL AT BEST.  WHILE THEY DO AGREE ON A
S/W RIDGE AND DRY CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AFTER THAT THERE
ARE SOME FAIRLY BIG DIFFERENCES.  THE ECMWF IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH A WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS IS SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH.  LATE IN THE
PERIOD THEY COME BACK INTO LINE WITH ANOTHER MAJOR STORM FORMING
OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS.  THAT SYSTEMS EFFECTS WILL BE FELT NEXT
WEEKEND.  OUTSIDE OF TUESDAY...UNFORTUNATELY THE POPS WILL REMAIN
BROADBRUSHED AS SFC FRONT STALLS OVER THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH
ENERGY ALOFT.  MIXED LAYER CAPES WILL SUPPORT THUNDER THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  TEMPERATURES OVERALL SHOULD AVERAGE OUT ABOUT NORMAL FOR
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

EXPECT MVF/IFR CIGS TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. A RAIN AND
SNOW MIX IS LIKELY AT KMBG REDUCING VSBY BELOW 1 NM AT TIMES.
THUNDER IS POSSIBLE AT KABR AND KATY 18Z-02Z.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ003-015.

MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...SCARLETT
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...SCARLETT

Hazardous weather outlook, May 10, 4:01 AM CDT, 11 hours 29 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
401 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

MNZ039-046-SDZ004>011-016>023-034>037-048-051-110915-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS-
WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-CODINGTON-GRANT-
HAMLIN-DEUEL-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-LYMAN-BUFFALO-
401 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHWARDS WHILE WEAKENING. THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT IS LOW...HOWEVER STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS UNLIKELY.

SDZ003-015-033-045-110915-
CORSON-DEWEY-STANLEY-JONES-
401 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA AND NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HEAVY WET SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA RESULTING
IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

CONNELLY

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 10, 2:14 PM CDT, 1 hour 16 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
214 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0212 PM     HEAVY SNOW       9 WSW MCINTOSH          45.87N 101.52W
05/10/2015  M5.0 INCH        CORSON             SD   COCORAHS

            POWER OUT

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1500287

TMK

Local storm report, May 10, 2:31 PM CDT, 59 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
231 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     HEAVY SNOW       TIMBER LAKE             45.43N 101.07W
05/10/2015  M6.0 INCH        DEWEY              SD   CO-OP OBSERVER

            LOTS OF MELTING THROUGHOUT THE DAY

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1500288

TMK

Local storm report, May 10, 2:32 PM CDT, 58 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
232 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0231 PM     HEAVY SNOW       14 NNE ISABEL           45.58N 101.32W
05/10/2015  M8.0 INCH        CORSON             SD   CO-OP OBSERVER

            HEAVY WET SNOW

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1500289

TMK

Local storm report, May 10, 2:33 PM CDT, 57 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
233 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0233 PM     HEAVY SNOW       5 NW FIRESTEEL          45.48N 101.36W
05/10/2015  M12.0 INCH       CORSON             SD   COCORAHS

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1500290

TMK

Special weather statement, May 10, 3:11 PM CDT, 19 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
311 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

SDZ019-020-022-102100-
CODINGTON SD-CLARK SD-HAMLIN SD-
311 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 311 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
KELLERTON CHURCH...OR 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WATERTOWN...MOVING NORTH
AT 30 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WATERTOWN...HAYTI...FLORENCE...HENRY...HAZEL...KELLERTON CHURCH...
SANDY SHORE REC AREA...LAKE KAMPESKA...TINKERTOWN...WATERTOWN CITY
PARK...GOOSE LAKE...THOMAS...MEDICINE LAKE...HAMLIN EDUCATION
CENTER...MEMORIAL PARK CAMPING SITE...LONG LAKE...PELICAN LAKE AND
GRASS LAKE.

LAT...LON 4459 9718 4458 9743 4506 9754 4508 9716
TIME...MOT...LOC 2011Z 176DEG 26KT 4473 9733

SCARLETT

Local storm report, May 10, 3:19 PM CDT, 11 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
319 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0318 PM     HAIL             HAZEL                   44.76N  97.38W
05/10/2015  M1.50 INCH       HAMLIN             SD   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1500291

TMK

The office that day

Everything else NWS Aberdeen, SD issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 10, 3:33 AM CDT	Winter Weather Advisory	ABR	Jones, Stanley	8 hr
May 10, 12:47 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	ABR	Clark	28 min
May 10, 3:11 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	ABR	Codington, Hamlin	49 min
May 10, 3:19 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ABR	Clark, Codington, Hamlin	26 min
May 10, 3:38 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	ABR	Brown	52 min
May 10, 3:44 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ABR	Clark, Codington, Day	46 min
May 10, 3:44 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ABR	Codington, Day	46 min
May 10, 3:48 PM CDT	Winter Weather Advisory	ABR	Campbell, Edmunds, Faulk, McPherson, Potter, Walworth	21 hr
May 10, 4:08 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ABR	Spink	52 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in South Dakota, 2015 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.