Severe Thunderstorm Warning 152, NWS Aberdeen, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
315 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH MSAS 3 HOURLY PRESSURE CHANGE
SHOWING ABOUT A 3 MB FALL. DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH ARE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA /KMBG DEWPOINT AT 61 DEGREES/. SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION
MAY CONTINUE LATE THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER. BESIDES THE FAR NORTHEAST
CWA...MUCH OF THE REGION HAS CLEARED OF OVERNIGHT DEBRIS
CLOUDS...AND DESTABILIZATION IS BECOMING APPARENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE THE SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE IS SHOWING
3000 J/KG OF CAPE. A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT IS ALSO APPARENT ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL LIKELY BE THE SOURCE OF
LIFT TO INITIATE STORMS. BULK SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 40 TO
55 KTS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH TONIGHT. OVERALL THE INGREDIENTS SEEM
TO BE IN PLACE FOR SEVERE WEATHER...WITH BEST CHANCES SOUTH OF US
HIGHWAY 212. HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS AS THE
LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS PRETTY WEAK. ALTHOUGH...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT
THE ISOLATED TORNADO.

THE SYSTEM IS QUICK TO EXIT TONIGHT...AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY. THE NEXT FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL THEN BE THE
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SET TO INFLUENCE THE REGION MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT. MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO GET A GRASP ON THE TIMING AND
POSITION OF THE SYSTEM...BUT COULD MEAN ANOTHER ROUND OF
STORMS...ESPECIALLY FOR OUR EASTERN CWA. 700 MB TEMPERATURES RISE
QUICKLY ACROSS THE WEST ON MONDAY...TOPPING OUT NEAR 16 C BY 06Z
TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S
UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

FAIRLY TRANQUIL PATTERN EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE U.S. AND CANADIAN
BORDER ON TUESDAY.  THE SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT SHOULD BE AS FAR EAST
AS THE SD/MN BORDER BY EARLY TUESDAY. BELIEVE THAT MOST OF THE PCPN
SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY...BUT DID HOLD ONTO A LOW POP
ALONG AND EAST OF I-29. IT WILL LIKELY BE BREEZY ON TUESDAY...WITH
WINDS FROM 15 TO 25 MPH...HIGHEST WEST RIVER. IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM...A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL DEVELOP IN THE UPPER
LEVELS WHILE A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERSPREADS THE REGION AT
THE SFC. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LOWER HUMIDITY
/DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S/...AND SEASONAL TEMPS IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

EARLY MORNING CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED AND PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA
AS OF 1730Z. IN ITS WAKE...SEEING CLEARING SKIES WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AREA-WIDE THRU MID/LATE AFTERNOON. STILL
EXPECTING THE POSSIBILITY FOR SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 22Z. STILL UNCERTAINTY WHERE THE MOST
WIDESPREAD STORM COVERAGE WILL BE AND WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL
IMPACT SPECIFIC TERMINALS. AT THIS TIME...FELT THE GREATEST
COVERAGE OF STORMS WOULD BE IN SRN SD...THUS INCLUDED A TEMPO
TSRA AT KPIR. AT KABR/KATY...INCLUDED ONLY A COUPLE HOURS OF VCTS
FOR NOW. ANY STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...AND
A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR VSBY AND CIGS. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AFTER 05Z.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...FOWLE
AVIATION...FOWLE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
354 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-260900-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
354 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED STORMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION THIS MORNING BUT THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LOW UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR STORMS EXISTS INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

CONNELLY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1036 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1223 AM     TSTM WND GST     2 N PARADE              45.05N 101.11W
07/25/2015  E80 MPH          DEWEY              SD   PUBLIC

            SEVERAL MATURE COTTONWOOD AND ASH TREES DOWN ALONG WITH
            CROP DAMAGE

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1500667

VIPOND

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1048 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1245 AM     HAIL             2 W LAPLANT             45.14N 100.69W
07/25/2015  E1.00 INCH       DEWEY              SD   PUBLIC

            MOSTLY NICKEL SIZE HAIL WITH A FEW STONES QUARTER SIZE

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1500668

VIPOND

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1108 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     HAIL             3 SE OKATON             43.86N 100.85W
07/25/2015  E0.88 INCH       JONES              SD   PUBLIC

            A FEW LEAVES OFF OF SOME TREES

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1500669

VIPOND

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1131 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 AM     TSTM WND GST     3 SW CAPA               44.08N 101.01W
07/25/2015  E60 MPH          JONES              SD   PUBLIC

            MAINLY PEA SIZE HAIL WITH SOME LEAVES AND BRANCHES DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1500670

VIPOND

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
333 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0329 PM     HAIL             11 W EUREKA             45.77N  99.85W
07/25/2015  E1.00 INCH       CAMPBELL           SD   PUBLIC

            QUARTER HAIL WITH 50 MPH WINDS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1500671

KG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
403 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0357 PM     HAIL             8 W LONG LAKE           45.86N  99.37W
07/25/2015  E1.00 INCH       MCPHERSON          SD   PUBLIC

            LOTS OF NICKEL HAIL WITH A FEW QUARTERS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1500672

KG