Alert archive / South Dakota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2015

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 131, NWS Aberdeen, SD

July 17, 20154 counties in South Dakota

NWS Aberdeen, SD issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 17, 2015, 8:22 PM CDT for 4 counties in South Dakota. It was in force for 38 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Jul 17, 2015, 8:22 PM CDT (01:22 UTC)
Expired: Jul 17, 2015, 9:00 PM CDT
In force: 38 min
Issued by: NWS Aberdeen, SD
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.0 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties Clark County, SD, Codington County, SD, Hamlin County, SD, Spink County, SD

The radar

The Aberdeen radar (KABR), 91 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:23 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jul 17, 3:43 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	7 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Aberdeen, SD (KABR), launched 00:00Z, 1.4 hours before the alert went out and 62 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 112 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -341 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1497 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 61 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 236 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 313 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Aberdeen, SD wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 17, 6:40 PM CDT, 1 hour 42 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 17, 6:40 PM CDT, 1 hour 42 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
640 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING. NO MAJOR UPDATES TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST EXCEPT TO CLEAR POPS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS FROM
THE WESTERN COUNTIES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 401 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

UPDATED PRODUCTS FOR THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURES OUT AHEAD OF SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT ARE
WARMING THROUGH THE 80S INTO THE LOW 90S. BEHIND THE
FRONT...TEMPERATURES ARE NOTABLY COOLER WITH READINGS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOW 80S. THE ATMOSPHERE OUT AHEAD OF THIS COLD
FRONT COULD BE CHARACTERIZED AS BECOMING RATHER UNSTABLE...WITH
MLCAPE VALUES OFF SPC'S MESO-PAGE SHOWING A BULLS-EYE OF OVER
2500J/KG. AT THE SAME TIME...THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR HAS INCREASED TO
45 TO 50 KNOTS. THESE TWO INDICES/PARAMETERS ALONE SUGGEST
SIGNIFICANTLY STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...ALL THE AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE /INCLUDING CAM OUTPUT/ SEEMS TO SUGGEST THERE WILL BE AT
LEAST SCATTERED COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE CWA. THE
RECURRING THEME IN THE HRRR...ARW...NMM...NAMDNG5...NSSL WRF AND
LOCAL WRF IS THAT THERE COULD BE TWO ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. ONE ROUND OF SEVERE
STORMS IS EXPECTED TO FIRE OFF THIS SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...AFFECTING MAINLY NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA WITH
DISCRETE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND BY EARLY THIS EVENING PERHAPS EVEN A
TORNADO OR TWO. A SECOND ROUND OF STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE STORMS
COULD BE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN /I-90 CORRIDOR/ FORECAST AREA
LIFTING EAST-NORTHEAST BETWEEN ROUGHLY 01Z AND 06Z. THIS SECOND
ROUND OF STORMS...WHILE NOT AFFIXED TO OR OUT AHEAD OF THIS COLD
FRONT...WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO ORGANIZE INTO A FORWARD
PROPAGATING SQUALL LINE/BOWING LINE SEGMENT AND PRODUCE SEVERE
STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR
THAT WILL BE AROUND THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

ONCE THESE CONVECTION CHANCES GO AWAY LATE TONIGHT...THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST IS DRY AND COOL WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
INFLUENCING THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS TO BE CLOSER TO NORMAL...AND NOT SO UNCOMFORTABLY MUGGY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

THERE IS A REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS
FAIRLY GOOD SIGNAL FOR WIDESPREAD PCPN CHANCES LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AS A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY...PCPN CHANCES ARE A BEST GUESS AS THE GFS SHOWS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SITUATED WEST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. WHILE THERE WILL BE DECENT CAPE VALUES...THERE WILL ALSO
BE A FAIRLY STRONG CAP IN PLACE WITH 700 MB TEMPS OF +12 TO +14.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

SEVERE STORMS EAST OF KABR THOUGH SOME TSRA ARE STILL DEVELOPING
NEAR KABR. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE AFTER 03Z ESPECIALLY
NEAR KPIR. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EXCEPT IN THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...WISE

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 17, 4:09 AM CDT, 16 hours 13 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
409 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

MNZ039-046-SDZ004>011-016>023-180915-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS-
WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-CODINGTON-GRANT-
HAMLIN-DEUEL-
409 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEY WILL
INITIATE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN TRACK FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE REGION. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT...HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED TORNADO AS WELL.

ALTHOUGH A MUCH LESSER CHANCE...THERE MAY BE AN SECOND ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS THAT TRACK ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. STRONG WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SDZ003-015-180915-
CORSON-DEWEY-
409 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THESE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. HOWEVER...THERE
MAY BE A SECOND ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. IF THEY DEVELOP...STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

SDZ033>037-045-048-051-180915-
STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-LYMAN-BUFFALO-
409 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST STORMS APPEAR AS THOUGH THEY
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE A SECOND
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT TRACK ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. IF
THEY DEVELOP...STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

SERR

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 17, 7:54 PM CDT, 28 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
754 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0618 PM     HAIL             4 SE LAKE CITY          45.68N  97.35W
07/17/2015  E1.25 INCH       MARSHALL           SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

            30-40 MPH WIND GUSTS

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1500582

VIPOND

Local storm report, Jul 17, 7:58 PM CDT, 24 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
758 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0748 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 W WAUBAY              45.34N  97.39W
07/17/2015  M90 MPH          DAY                SD   MESONET

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1500583

VIPOND

Local storm report, Jul 17, 8:08 PM CDT, 14 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
808 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0723 PM     HAIL             BROWNS VALLEY           45.59N  96.83W
07/17/2015  E1.75 INCH       TRAVERSE           MN   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1500584

SCARLETT

Local storm report, Jul 17, 8:16 PM CDT, 6 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
816 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0813 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     BRADLEY                 45.09N  97.64W
07/17/2015                   CLARK              SD   STORM CHASER

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1500586

WISE

Local storm report, Jul 17, 8:19 PM CDT, 3 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
819 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0648 PM     HAIL             2 N FERNEY              45.36N  98.10W
07/17/2015  E1.25 INCH       BROWN              SD   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1500587

VIPOND

Local storm report, Jul 17, 8:21 PM CDT, 1 minute before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
821 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BRADLEY                 45.09N  97.64W
07/17/2015                   CLARK              SD   STORM CHASER

            DAMAGE TO POWER LINES ALONG CR 155

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1500588

WISE

The office that day

Everything else NWS Aberdeen, SD issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 17, 7:02 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ABR	Brown, Day, Marshall, Roberts, Spink	28 min
Jul 17, 7:05 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ABR	Roberts	40 min
Jul 17, 7:05 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	ABR	Day, Marshall	25 min
Jul 17, 7:08 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	ABR	Roberts	37 min
Jul 17, 7:15 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ABR	Brown, Spink	45 min
Jul 17, 7:17 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	ABR	Day	28 min
Jul 17, 7:25 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ABR	Roberts	20 min
Jul 17, 7:25 PM CDT	Tornado Warning Tornado observed	ABR	Day, Marshall, Roberts	32 min
Jul 17, 7:28 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ABR	Codington, Day, Grant, Marshall, Roberts	62 min
Jul 17, 7:36 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ABR	Faulk, Spink	54 min
Jul 17, 7:41 PM CDT	Tornado Warning Tornado observed	ABR	Day, Marshall, Roberts	49 min
Jul 17, 7:44 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ABR	Brown, Clark, Codington, Day, Spink	61 min
Jul 17, 7:45 PM CDT	Tornado Warning Tornado observedConsiderable damage threat	ABR	Codington, Day, Grant, Roberts	45 min
Jul 17, 7:48 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ABR	Roberts	72 min
Jul 17, 7:55 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ABR	Clark, Codington, Day	50 min
Jul 17, 8:10 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	ABR	Clark, Codington	65 min
Jul 17, 8:21 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	ABR	Codington, Day, Deuel, Grant, Roberts	54 min
Jul 17, 8:54 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	ABR	Codington, Deuel, Grant, Hamlin	66 min
Jul 17, 8:58 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	ABR	Clark, Codington, Deuel, Hamlin	62 min
Jul 17, 9:00 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ABR	Grant, Roberts	45 min
Jul 17, 9:10 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	ABR	Deuel, Grant	52 min
Jul 17, 9:57 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ABR	Codington, Deuel, Grant, Hamlin	48 min
Jul 17, 8:53 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	ABR	Big Stone, Traverse	36 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in South Dakota, 2015 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.