Alert archive / South Dakota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2015

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 113, NWS Aberdeen, SD

July 17, 20154 counties in South Dakota

NWS Aberdeen, SD issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 17, 2015, 5:21 PM CDT for 4 counties in South Dakota. It was in force for 39 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Jul 17, 2015, 5:21 PM CDT (22:21 UTC)
Expired: Jul 17, 2015, 6:00 PM CDT
In force: 39 min
Issued by: NWS Aberdeen, SD
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.25 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties Brown County, SD, Edmunds County, SD, Faulk County, SD, Spink County, SD

The radar

The Aberdeen radar (KABR), 17 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:24 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Jul 17, 5:43 PM CDT	HAIL 1	Warner, SD

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched one storm report to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 22 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jul 17, 3:43 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	7 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Aberdeen, SD (KABR), launched 12:00Z, 10.4 hours before the alert went out and 47 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 490 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -181 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1592 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 34 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 69 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 40 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

784 
WUUS53 KABR 172221
SVRABR
SDC013-045-049-115-172300-
/O.NEW.KABR.SV.W.0113.150717T2221Z-150717T2300Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
521 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ABERDEEN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHWESTERN BROWN COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...
  SOUTHEASTERN EDMUNDS COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...
  NORTHEASTERN FAULK COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...
  NORTHWESTERN SPINK COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...

* UNTIL 600 PM CDT

* AT 521 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR NORTH
  SCATTERWOOD LAKE...OR 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ABERDEEN...MOVING
  NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

  HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL. 

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

  IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE 
           TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

* THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MANSFIELD AROUND 530 PM CDT.
  WARNER AROUND 535 PM CDT.
  ABERDEEN AROUND 545 PM CDT.
  STRATFORD AROUND 550 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4526 9822 4518 9881 4536 9890 4553 9839
TIME...MOT...LOC 2221Z 245DEG 32KT 4531 9870 

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

WISE

2 follow-up statements

677 
WWUS53 KABR 172244
SVSABR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
544 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

SDC045-049-115-172253-
/O.CAN.KABR.SV.W.0113.000000T0000Z-150717T2300Z/
EDMUNDS SD-FAULK SD-SPINK SD-
544 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN EDMUNDS...
NORTHEASTERN FAULK AND NORTHWESTERN SPINK COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
    
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF 
THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4525 9829 4525 9864 4538 9868 4553 9839
      4526 9823
TIME...MOT...LOC 2243Z 245DEG 32KT 4539 9844 

$$

SDC013-172300-
/O.CON.KABR.SV.W.0113.000000T0000Z-150717T2300Z/
BROWN SD-
544 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN BROWN COUNTY...

AT 543 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ABERDEEN...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

THIS SEVERE STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  STRATFORD AROUND 550 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4525 9829 4525 9864 4538 9868 4553 9839
      4526 9823
TIME...MOT...LOC 2243Z 245DEG 32KT 4539 9844 

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

WISE

403 
WWUS53 KABR 172258
SVSABR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
558 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

SDC013-172308-
/O.EXP.KABR.SV.W.0113.000000T0000Z-150717T2300Z/
BROWN SD-
558 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN BROWN COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 600 PM CDT...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE 
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR 
PROPERTY. THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4525 9829 4525 9864 4538 9868 4553 9839
      4526 9823
TIME...MOT...LOC 2254Z 245DEG 32KT 4539 9844 

$$

WISE

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Aberdeen, SD wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 17, 4:05 PM CDT, 1 hour 16 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 17, 4:05 PM CDT, 1 hour 16 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
405 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 401 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

UPDATED PRODUCTS FOR THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURES OUT AHEAD OF SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT ARE
WARMING THROUGH THE 80S INTO THE LOW 90S. BEHIND THE
FRONT...TEMPERATURES ARE NOTABLY COOLER WITH READINGS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOW 80S. THE ATMOSPHERE OUT AHEAD OF THIS COLD
FRONT COULD BE CHARACTERIZED AS BECOMING RATHER UNSTABLE...WITH
MLCAPE VALUES OFF SPC'S MESO-PAGE SHOWING A BULLS-EYE OF OVER
2500J/KG. AT THE SAME TIME...THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR HAS INCREASED TO
45 TO 50 KNOTS. THESE TWO INDICES/PARAMETERS ALONE SUGGEST
SIGNIFICANTLY STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...ALL THE AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE /INCLUDING CAM OUTPUT/ SEEMS TO SUGGEST THERE WILL BE AT
LEAST SCATTERED COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE CWA. THE
RECURRING THEME IN THE HRRR...ARW...NMM...NAMDNG5...NSSL WRF AND
LOCAL WRF IS THAT THERE COULD BE TWO ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. ONE ROUND OF SEVERE
STORMS IS EXPECTED TO FIRE OFF THIS SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...AFFECTING MAINLY NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA WITH
DISCRETE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND BY EARLY THIS EVENING PERHAPS EVEN A
TORNADO OR TWO. A SECOND ROUND OF STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE STORMS
COULD BE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN /I-90 CORRIDOR/ FORECAST AREA
LIFTING EAST-NORTHEAST BETWEEN ROUGHLY 01Z AND 06Z. THIS SECOND
ROUND OF STORMS...WHILE NOT AFFIXED TO OR OUT AHEAD OF THIS COLD
FRONT...WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO ORGANIZE INTO A FORWARD
PROPAGATING SQUALL LINE/BOWING LINE SEGMENT AND PRODUCE SEVERE
STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR
THAT WILL BE AROUND THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

ONCE THESE CONVECTION CHANCES GO AWAY LATE TONIGHT...THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST IS DRY AND COOL WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
INFLUENCING THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS TO BE CLOSER TO NORMAL...AND NOT SO UNCOMFORTABLY MUGGY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

THERE IS A REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS
FAIRLY GOOD SIGNAL FOR WIDESPREAD PCPN CHANCES LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AS A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY...PCPN CHANCES ARE A BEST GUESS AS THE GFS SHOWS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SITUATED WEST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. WHILE THERE WILL BE DECENT CAPE VALUES...THERE WILL ALSO
BE A FAIRLY STRONG CAP IN PLACE WITH 700 MB TEMPS OF +12 TO +14.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR THE TERMINALS OF
KABR/KATY. CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY FALL TO MVFR WITH HEAVIER
THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AS A
SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSES THE REGION. KPIR AND PERHAPS
KATY WILL HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
SECOND FRONT. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY...ALONG WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...SD

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 17, 4:09 AM CDT, 13 hours 12 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
409 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

MNZ039-046-SDZ004>011-016>023-180915-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS-
WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-CODINGTON-GRANT-
HAMLIN-DEUEL-
409 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEY WILL
INITIATE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN TRACK FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE REGION. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT...HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED TORNADO AS WELL.

ALTHOUGH A MUCH LESSER CHANCE...THERE MAY BE AN SECOND ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS THAT TRACK ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. STRONG WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SDZ003-015-180915-
CORSON-DEWEY-
409 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THESE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. HOWEVER...THERE
MAY BE A SECOND ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. IF THEY DEVELOP...STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

SDZ033>037-045-048-051-180915-
STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-LYMAN-BUFFALO-
409 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST STORMS APPEAR AS THOUGH THEY
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE A SECOND
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT TRACK ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. IF
THEY DEVELOP...STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

SERR

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 17, 4:54 PM CDT, 27 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
454 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0449 PM     HAIL             BRITTON                 45.79N  97.75W
07/17/2015  E1.00 INCH       MARSHALL           SD   STORM CHASER

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1500564

VIPOND

Local storm report, Jul 17, 4:57 PM CDT, 24 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
457 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0456 PM     HAIL             BRITTON                 45.79N  97.75W
07/17/2015  E1.50 INCH       MARSHALL           SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ESTIMATED WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1500565

VIPOND

Local storm report, Jul 17, 5:01 PM CDT, 20 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
501 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0458 PM     HAIL             BRITTON                 45.79N  97.75W
07/17/2015  M2.50 INCH       MARSHALL           SD   STORM CHASER

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1500566

VIPOND

Local storm report, Jul 17, 5:05 PM CDT, 16 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
505 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0458 PM     TSTM WND GST     BRITTON                 45.79N  97.75W
07/17/2015  M67 MPH          MARSHALL           SD   STORM CHASER

            STORM CHASER ALSO REPORTS NO ELECTRICITY IN TOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1500567

VIPOND

The office that day

Everything else NWS Aberdeen, SD issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 16, 8:24 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	ABR	Brown	51 min
Jul 16, 8:25 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ABR	Brown, Edmunds, McPherson	30 min
Jul 17, 4:34 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ABR	Marshall	41 min
Jul 17, 4:38 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ABR	Edmunds, Faulk	52 min
Jul 17, 4:52 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ABR	McPherson	53 min
Jul 17, 5:07 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ABR	Brown, McPherson	38 min
Jul 17, 5:12 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	ABR	Marshall	33 min
Jul 17, 5:31 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ABR	Brown, McPherson	59 min
Jul 17, 5:41 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ABR	Marshall, Roberts	64 min
Jul 17, 6:02 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ABR	Brown	43 min
Jul 17, 6:18 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ABR	Brown, Day	57 min
Jul 17, 6:20 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	ABR	Marshall, Roberts	25 min
Jul 17, 6:24 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ABR	Brown, Day, Marshall	66 min
Jul 17, 6:44 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ABR	Brown, Edmunds, Faulk, Spink	47 min
Jul 17, 6:44 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	ABR	Roberts	31 min
Jul 17, 6:46 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ABR	Roberts	44 min
Jul 17, 6:57 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ABR	Faulk, Spink	63 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in South Dakota, 2015 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.