Special Weather Statement, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1205 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
THE MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SHIFT FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS TODAY TO MORE SQUARELY OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT...THEN OVER S NM BY SATURDAY AFTN. AS A RESULT STORM CELLS
WILL SHIFT SLOWLY TOWARD THE S AND W TODAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY LATE
THIS MORNING DEPICTS A WEAK DISTURBANCE DROPPING S OUT OF CO. TRUSTED
MESOSCALE MODELS DEPICT TS FORMING CLUSTERS AND LINES ACROSS N NM
THIS AFTN THEN SPREADING S ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS THIS
EVENING...WITH SOME INDICATION THAT NW AND E CENTRAL AREAS COULD
ALSO GET HIT. CELLS SHOULD MOVE SLOWER AND DIRECTION OF MOVEMENT
SHOULD BECOME MORE ERRATIC TONIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES MORE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD. WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE...ANOTHER VERY
ACTIVE DAY OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED SATURDAY. IF THE HIGH SINKS
FAR ENOUGH S...STRATUS STORMS SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE E AT 10-15
KT. TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD RESULT IN
FEWER DENSITY ALTITUDE PROBLEMS.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...341 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF NEW
MEXICO TODAY AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINES WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY GET GOING EARLIER
THAN IS TYPICAL WITH A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE.
A ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FOR THE
FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY AND SUNDAY EXCEPT FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS WHERE
STABLE CONDITIONS WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS HARD TO COME BY. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO GET THE EASTERN PLAINS BACK INTO THE ACT
MONDAY. THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BEFORE DRIER AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST POSSIBLE LIMITS THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL PLAINS CONTINUES EARLY
THIS MORNING. HI RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGESTING THIS CONVECTION WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. LAST COUPLE RUNS OF
THE NAM12 INDICATING THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
GET GOING EARLY TODAY...DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS OVER SW AND
CENTRAL AREAS. AREAS WHERE CONVECTION DEVELOPS EARLY AND TEMPS
COOL ACCORDINGLY...AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE TOUGH TO COME BY.
ELSEWHERE...ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS IS ON TAP...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY. DUAL
POL STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES FROM KABX AND KFDX FROM
THURSDAY INDICATING A CLASSIC FOOTPRINT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND A SIMILAR SET UP IS EXPECTED TODAY.

MAIN CHANGE FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY WILL BE THE STABILIZATION OF
THE EASTERN PLAINS. OTHERWISE...MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT ANOTHER HEALTHY ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION IS
IN STORE FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WWD. SIMILAR SET UP
ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS TO PROPAGATE
EWD OVER THE ERN PLAINS SUNDAY EVENING.

NAM AND GFS CONTINUE WITH THE TREND OF SPEEDING UP AN UNSEASONABLY
STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FOR MONDAY...AND WITH 30-35KTS OF JET
LEVEL FLOW...A FEW STORMS OVER THE NE HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS COULD
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR NE NM WILL COOL TO WELL BELOW AVERAGE MONDAY WITH
HIGHS ELSEWHERE COOLING MARKEDLY ON TUESDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
KEEP THINGS ACTIVE WEDNESDAY AND ATTEMPT TO SCOUR OUT MOISTURE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. GFS MORE BULLISH WITH THE DRY AIR AHEAD OF A
CLOSED LOW OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST MOVING INTO NM FROM
THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS A WEAK SLY
MOISTURE PLUME IN PLACE OVER NM.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM REGIME CONTINUES WITH ABOVE
NORMAL PWATS AND WEAK STEERING FLOW LEADING TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THANKS TO A
BACKDOOR FRONT WHICH WILL RECHARGE MOISTURE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD
THANKS TO ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND RAIN-COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH
THUNDERSTORMS. WEAK LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND A MIXED-BAG OF
SUN/CLOUDS/RAIN WILL BRING VARIABLE VENT RATES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...WHICH LOOK TO BE GOOD/EXCELLENT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
AND POOR TO FAIR ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS.

THE UPPER HIGH IS FORECAST TO TAKE UP RESIDENCE OVER SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH MAY ALLOW
FOR DRIER AIR TO MOVE OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AS THE WESTERLIES
MAKE A BRIEF RETURN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP BACK UP LATE NEXT
WEEK TO NEAR NORMAL AS THE UPPER HIGH BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
509 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

NMZ501>540-041130-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
509 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING. STORM MOTION WILL BE RATHER SLOW AND RAIN
COULD BECOME LOCALLY HEAVY. THIS MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED AREAS OF
FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY OVER RECENT BURN SCARS. STORMS WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. REMEMBER TO
AVOID CAMPING IN OR NEAR NORMALLY DRY ARROYOS...DITCHES AS WELL AS
FLOWING CREEKS OR STREAMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. STORM MOTION WILL BE RATHER SLOW AND RAIN COULD
BECOME LOCALLY HEAVY. LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY
OVER RECENT BURN SCARS IS POSSIBLE. REMEMBER TO AVOID CAMPING IN
OR NEAR NORMALLY DRY ARROYOS...DITCHES AS WELL AS FLOWING CREEKS
OR STREAMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

33

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