Flash Flood Warning 25, NWS Albuquerque, NM

984 
WGUS75 KABQ 030138
FFSABQ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
738 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

NMC043-030300-
/O.CON.KABQ.FF.W.0025.000000T0000Z-150703T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SANDOVAL-
738 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM MDT FOR
NORTH CENTRAL SANDOVAL COUNTY...

AT 735 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA BUT WATER FLOW WITHIN THE ARROYOS 
BETWEEN HIGHWAY 197 AND 550 SOUTHWEST OF CUBA SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE 
RUNNING HIGH. 

FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTH CENTRAL
SANDOVAL COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.

ARROYOS...STREAMS AND NORMALLY DRY WASHES CAN BECOME RAGING CURRENTS
IN A MATTER OF MINUTES. WATER IN ARROYOS MAY TRAVEL MANY MILES AND
TAKE HOURS TO REACH YOUR LOCATION FROM UPSTREAM RAIN AREAS. 

&&

LAT...LON 3597 10693 3584 10691 3590 10717 3601 10708

$$

50

819 
WGUS75 KABQ 030256
FFSABQ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
856 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

NMC043-030303-
/O.EXP.KABQ.FF.W.0025.000000T0000Z-150703T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SANDOVAL-
856 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL SANDOVAL COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 900 PM MDT...

THE HEAVY RAIN DETECTED EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS ENDED. 
HOWEVER...PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AREAS AND FLOWS OF WATER IN 
AREA DRAINAGES OR OVER LOW WATER CROSSINGS MAY STILL OCCUR FOR THE 
REST OF THIS EVENING. 

LAT...LON 3597 10693 3584 10691 3590 10717 3601 10708

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
608 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY
ONGOING OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...AND THE EVENING
SHOULD REMAIN ACTIVE WITH SOME STORMS LIKELY EVEN SUSTAINING AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. A VERY MOIST AIR
MASS IS IN PLACE...SO DOWNPOURS WILL QUICKLY REDUCE
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES TO MVFR CATEGORIES AND PERHAPS BRIEFLY TO
IFR CATEGORY. DOWNBURST WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY
ANY STORMS. LITTLE IF ANY STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE FOUND IN THE
NORTHEASTERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO...BUT ELSEWHERE THE COVERAGE OF
STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH. STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND AFTER A LULL IN ACTIVITY DURING THE
LATE MORNING NEW STORMS WILL REDEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...325 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
OF THIS WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL FOCUS WEST
OF NEW MEXICO THROUGH FRIDAY AND MOVE STORMS SOUTHWARD. THE STRONG
STORMS WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLASH FLOODING. THE UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL THEN DRIFT EAST OVER
NEW MEXICO AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STORM MOTIONS WILL
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY UNDER THE HIGH CENTER AND CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. BY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE
EAST INTO TEXAS AND DELIVER A MORE TRADITIONAL SOUTH TO NORTH
MONSOON FLOW FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ACROSS NM WEDNESDAY HAS WEAKENED TO 592DM WHILE REORGANIZING WEST
INTO AZ. DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY HAS ALSO WORKED INTO THE
AREA...WHICH IS EVIDENT ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AS STRONG STORMS
ARE FIRING UP. THE LATEST HRRR/5KM WRF/SPC SSEO/AND NAM12 ARE STILL
ADVERTISING A VERY ACTIVE PERIOD THRU THIS EVENING. EXPECT STORMS
TO ORGANIZE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND THE
NEARBY HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH 6PM. AN AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN MAY
RESULT FROM EASTERN CIBOLA AND CATRON COUNTIES EAST ACROSS SOCORRO
AND LINCOLN COUNTIES BY LATE EVENING. WILL LEAVE THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AS IS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY ALSO LOOK VERY ACTIVE WITH OVERALL LITTLE
CHANGE EXPECTED TO THE PATTERN OF MOIST INSTABILITY. ORIGINALLY A
DOWNTICK WAS ANTICIPATED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THEN MODELS
TRENDED LATER INTO SUNDAY...NOW IT APPEARS THAT TREND IS PROGGED BY
MONDAY. THE MOISTURE IS HERE TO STAY AND THERE IS NO REASON TO
BELIEVE OTHERWISE...SO HAVE KEPT HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS IN ALL
PERIODS THROUGH NEXT WEEK WHILE THE HIGH REORGANIZES SOUTH AND/OR
EAST OF NM. STORM MOTIONS THROUGH THE MULTI-DAY PERIOD WILL BE SLOW
WITH PWAT VALUES HOVERING BETWEEN 1 AND 1.3 INCHES. THE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN THREAT WITH ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE FOR AT
LEAST THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALREADY
VARYING AROUND 1 TO 1.25 INCHES WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THEN SPIKE EVEN HIGHER TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DUE TO THESE HIGH PWATS AND SLOW STORM
MOTIONS THAT ARE ANTICIPATED...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVY RAIN
AND FLASH FLOODING. PWATS MAY DECREASE SOME WEDNESDAY.

THE MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NORTHWEST OF NM AND
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO STEER A MOIST BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. A GUSTY
EAST CANYON WIND WILL IMPACT TYPICALLY FAVORED PARTS OF THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING DUE IN PART
TO THE FRONT...BUT ALSO TO THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THIS
MOISTURE WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN AND THE UPPER HIGH WILL
MIGRATE CLOSER TO THE FOUR CORNERS.

SATURDAY THE MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SHIFT MORE SQUARELY
OVERHEAD. WITH ABUNDANT MONSOON MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH PLENTY
OF SLOW MOVING STORMS ARE EXPECTED. SOME CELLS MAY REMAIN STATIONARY
AND PRODUCE A LOT OF RAIN.

SUNDAY...THE UPPER HIGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVER SOUTHERN NM AS AN
UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.  THIS WILL ADD FORCING FOR
STRONGER STORMS AND GET THE STORMS MOVING AGAIN...GENERALLY TOWARD
THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST. IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...A MOIST
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PLUNGE SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
AREA PUMPING UP PWATS EVEN MORE ACROSS THE EAST. ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TUESDAY.

MODELS DIVERGE ON THE POSITION OF THE UPPER HIGH TUESDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE EUROPEAN MODEL SHIFTING IT EAST OF NM
AND ALLOWING A MORE TRADITIONAL MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE
STATE. THE GFS BUILDS THE HIGH BACK OVER NM WITH MONSOON MOISTURE
SEEPING NORTHWARD UNDERNEATH.  EITHER WAY WETTING STORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE...THOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME DRYING IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAYS
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS.

SOME POCKETS OF POOR VENTILATION ARE EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN MONDAY...THEN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS
TUESDAY AND SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST AREAS WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWNWARD TO NEAR AND BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...UPWARD TO NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY...THEN BACK DOWN
BELOW NORMAL MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

44

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ504-506-507-511>515-518-519-521>524-528-529-531>537.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
529 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

NMZ501>540-031130-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
529 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING. STORM MOTION WILL BE RATHER SLOW AND RAIN COULD
BECOME LOCALLY HEAVY. THIS MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY OVER AND NEAR RECENT BURN SCARS. STORMS WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. REMEMBER TO
AVOID CAMPING IN OR NEAR NORMALLY DRY ARROYOS...DITCHES AS WELL AS FLOWING
CREEKS OR STREAMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING FRIDAY
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. STORM MOTION WILL BE RATHER SLOW AND
RAIN COULD BECOME LOCALLY HEAVY. LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY OVER AND NEAR RECENT BURN SCARS IS POSSIBLE.
REMEMBER TO AVOID CAMPING IN OR NEAR NORMALLY DRY ARROYOS...DITCHES
AS WELL AS FLOWING CREEKS OR STREAMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

33

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
109 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

NMZ512-515-022000-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS-
109 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN MORA COUNTY UNTIL
200 PM MDT...

AT 109 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER CHACON...OR 14 MILES NORTH OF MORA...MOVING
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HOLMAN...CHACON...COYOTE CREEK STATE PARK AND GUADALUPITA.

OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE UPPER LA JUNTA CAMPGROUND.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3618 10550 3628 10536 3616 10519 3600 10540
TIME...MOT...LOC 1909Z 230DEG 6KT 3619 10538

50

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
222 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

NMZ521-522-022045-
ESTANCIA VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-
222 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL TORRANCE COUNTY
UNTIL 245 PM MDT...

AT 222 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER TAJIQUE...OR 11 MILES WEST OF ESTANCIA. THIS
STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TORREON AND TAJIQUE.

OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE TAJIQUE CAMPGROUND.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3465 10627 3477 10634 3484 10624 3476 10612
TIME...MOT...LOC 2022Z 325DEG 4KT 3476 10627

50