Special Weather Statement, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1214 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
SHRA AND TSRA DEVELOPING AS OF THIS PRODUCT ISSUANCE FROM SANGRE
DE CRISTOS ON EAST AS WELL AS IN SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LIKELY ACROSS REST OF NORTHERN MTS AS WELL
AS THE REST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN ON EAST. STRONG TO SEVERE TSRA
FAIRLY LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THIS AREA...MAINLY BETWEEN 1930Z AND
03Z...WITH HAIL...GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 55 KTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING
AND TORRENTIAL RAIN. TCC AND LVS LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED THE
EARLIEST...SAF A BIT LATER. ABQ AND AEG LESS LIKELY TO BE
IMPACTED...BUT STILL POSSIBLE...MAINLY AFTER 21Z. VSBY AND CIGS
WILL BE BRIEFLY LOWERED IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. GUP AND FMN
HAVE JUST SLIGHT CHANCES OF BEING IMPACTED AS DRIER AIR EASING IN
THERE. THE BULK OF STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. BETWEEN 09Z AND 16Z MON THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR EITHER PATCHY MVFR TO IFR CIGS OR VSBY EAST OF A LINE FROM
ROUGHLY RTN TO ROW.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...258 AM MDT SUN JUN 14 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY IS FORECAST...FAVORING THE
MOUNTAINS AND THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS. THE EASTERN
PLAINS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKE YESTERDAY...
BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL BRING
MOISTURE WEST INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE
MONDAY...WITH AN UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED. MORE
DAYTIME THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST TUESDAY...BUT WILL BEGIN A
DOWNTREND THEREAFTER AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER
THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UP DURING THIS
PERIOD...TO ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS BY WEDNESDAY THEN CONTINUE
ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DISORGANIZED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER NEW MEXICO AND
NORTHERN MEXICO. TODAY LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM
DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL PWATS REMAINING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN PLAINS.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TODAY FOR THE NORTHERN TWO-
THIRDS OF NEW MEXICO...BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE LIKELY...
GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A ROSWELL TO TUCUMCARI LINE.

PRESSURE HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PULLS EAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS
TO THE WEST. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
MONDAY...MERGING WITH A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT AND ALLOWING LOW LAYER
MOISTURE TO SURGE WEST. THIS MOISTURE SURGE WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS GOING INTO TUESDAY DESPITE INCREASING PRESSURE
HEIGHTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY TREND UP EARLY
WEEK..BUT WILL GO ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS BY WEDNESDAY AND STAY
THERE INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND AS THE EASTERN PACIFIC
SUBTROPICAL HIGH EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION. KABQ IS
FORECAST TO EXCEED 90 DEGREES BY WEDNESDAY AND STAY THERE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE FORESEEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE AIRMASS OVER NM REMAINS VERY MOIST...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN
TIER OF THE STATE. SOME DRYING IS DEPICTED BY MODELS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WESTERN TIER OF THE STATE...BUT THIS IS A BIT HARD
TO FULLY BUY INTO. THUS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS HAVE BEEN
LEFT IN THE FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NM. SHOULD
DEWPOINTS DROP A FEW DEGREES SUCH AS FORECAST MODELS INDICATE FOR
THE WESTERN ZONES...SOME MINIMUM RH VALUES MAY APPROACH 20
PERCENT...BUT THESE WILL BE THE LOWEST IN THE THE FORECAST AREA.
OTHERWISE PREVAILING SURFACE/20FT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH A
LIGHT WIND REGIME ALSO PERSISTING ALOFT. EXPECT GOOD TO EXCELLENT RH
RECOVERY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING FOR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.

INTO MONDAY A SURFACE FRONT WILL BACK INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER
OF THE STATE...ADVANCING SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE DAYTIME. THE
FRONT SHOULD SPILL INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE ADVANCING TOWARD THE AZ/NM BORDER MONDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL SPREAD HEALTHIER DEWPOINTS INTO NM...ULTIMATELY RECHARGING
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. FOR
MONDAY STORMS WILL FOCUS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN IN AN UNSTABLE UPSLOPE FLOW...AND BY TUESDAY THE CONCENTRATION
OF STORMS WILL FAVOR AREAS BETWEEN THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TO THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. SOME ENHANCED WIND GUSTS WILL BE FOUND
DOWNWIND OF GAPS/CANYONS WITHIN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN MONDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE ANY WIND CONCERNS WILL BE LIMITED
TO LOCALIZED THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS.

FORECAST MODELS THEN SHOW A DRYING TREND THAT SLOWLY TRANSPIRES
THROUGH THE WEDNESDAY TO SATURDAY TIME FRAME AS AN EXTENSION OF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC HIGH BUILDS TOWARD NM. THIS WOULD LEAD TO LESS
COVERAGE OF STORMS AND AN UPWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER BACK
DOOR FRONT COULD THEN ARRIVE BY NEXT SUNDAY...DRAWING IN MOISTURE
FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS THAT WOULD LIKELY FAVOR THE EASTERN
ZONES...PARTICULARLY THE NORTHEASTERN ONES.

52

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
500 AM MDT SUN JUN 14 2015

NMZ501>540-151200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
500 AM MDT SUN JUN 14 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PRODUCING LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS OF MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

11

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
125 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2015

NMZ530-142000-
UNION COUNTY-
125 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL UNION COUNTY UNTIL 200 PM
MDT...

AT 125 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF GRENVILLE...OR 19 MILES EAST
OF DES MOINES...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GRENVILLE AND MOUNT DORA.

&&

LAT...LON 3670 10359 3672 10341 3652 10330 3648 10363
TIME...MOT...LOC 1925Z 351DEG 7KT 3666 10350

44