Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
244 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH
THE REGION. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING AND SHOULD TEND TO
DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE. NOT PLANNING ON CARRYING
A MENTION OF SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE EVENING HOURS AT THIS TIME.
TOWARD SUNRISE...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG A WARM FRONT IN
KANSAS AND MISSOURI. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THESE
STORMS TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS BORDERS...MOST
OF THE RAIN WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. WILL CARRY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL STORMS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING
IN PRIMARILY FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TO
COVER THIS POTENTIAL. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY ADDITIONAL SHOT AT
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

PROLONGED UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MORE TYPICAL OF THIS TIME OF YEAR
THAN THE ACTIVE PATTERN THE AREA HAS BEEN TREATED TO THIS SUMMER
WILL CONTINUE BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE UNITED STATES
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS FORECAST
THE RIDGE TO BREAKDOWN TOWARD THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT UNTIL THEN...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE
RULE...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR TRIPLE DIGITS. DURING THE THURSDAY
TO FRIDAY TIME FRAME...HEAT INDICES MAY NEAR THE CRITICAL 105
DEGREE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERION...SO HEAT ADVISORIES OR POSSIBLY
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS MAY BECOME NECESSARY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  98  76  97 /  20  10  10  10
FSM   73  97  74  97 /  10  10   0  10
MLC   73  96  75  96 /  10  10   0   0
BVO   71  98  72  98 /  20  20  10  10
FYV   70  94  70  93 /  20  20  10  10
BYV   70  94  71  94 /  20  20  10  10
MKO   71  96  73  96 /  10  10   0   0
MIO   72  97  73  97 /  20  20  10  10
F10   72  95  74  95 /  10  10   0   0
HHW   71  97  73  96 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....22

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
312 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-191000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
300 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

...DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL POTENTIAL WITH COMPLEX OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...CRITICAL.
	AREA...FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...FORT SMITH AREA.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...

A COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVING ACROSS FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WEST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS WILL BRING DAMAGING WIND AND SEVERE HAIL
POTENTIAL TO THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER ISOLATED STORMS MAY
DEVELOP ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WITH
SEVERE WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL AS WELL.

HEAT INDICES WILL BE IN THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE IN SPOTS
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA THAT HAVE NOT BEEN IMPACTED BY TODAY'S
STORMS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY BEFORE A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE REGION FINALLY LIFTS NORTHEAST. IN
THE WAKE OF THE EXITING BOUNDARY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO SET UP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...CONTINUING HOT
TEMPERATURES FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

LACY

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
321 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0318 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SPIRO                   35.24N 94.62W
08/18/2014                   LE FLORE           OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN

&&

JBM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
325 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CENTRAL CITY            35.32N 94.25W
08/18/2014                   SEBASTIAN          AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LARGE TREE DOWN.

&&

GEW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
331 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

OKZ064-182100-
CREEK OK-
331 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 400 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     CENTRAL CREEK

AT 331 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES NORTHWEST
OF KELLYVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL
BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...KELLYVILLE.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO PENNY SIZE HAIL AND
WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT
IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3613 9632 3611 9630 3608 9630 3607 9624
      3598 9610 3584 9637 3604 9644
TIME...MOT...LOC 2031Z 320DEG 6KT 3603 9633

LACY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
339 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 N POCOLA              35.30N 94.48W
08/18/2014                   LE FLORE           OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES NORTHERN LEFLORE COUNTY.
            ESTIMATED TIME OF OCCURRANCE 250-315 PM FROM RADAR. TOWN
            OF POCOLA USED AS APPROIMATE MID-POINT.

&&

GEW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
339 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

OKZ076-182115-
LE FLORE OK-
339 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 415 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     CENTRAL LE FLORE

AT 339 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM MILTON TO 4 MILES SOUTH OF SHADY POINT...MOVING SOUTH
AT 35 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS
INCLUDE...HOWE...SHADY POINT...MILTON...PANAMA AND BOKOSHE.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3494 9461 3502 9493 3508 9493 3521 9488
      3521 9487 3517 9467
TIME...MOT...LOC 2039Z 346DEG 30KT 3512 9485 3505 9464