Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
307 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A SHORT TERM HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE
FORT SMITH AREA DOWN INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AS DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID 70S AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 90S ARE YIELDING HEAT INDICES
NEAR 105 DEGREES.

TYPICAL SUMMER LIKE UPPER AND SURFACE PATTERN ACROSS THE PLAINS
TODAY. THE FLOW ALOFT IS NEARLY ZONAL...SANDWICHED BETWEEN A MID
LVL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH AND A LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO SD. AT
THE SURFACE...A SURFACE TROUGH/BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM WESTERN NORTH
TX ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK AND WEST CENTRAL AR TO THE MO BOOTHEEL. A
VERY JUICY AIRMASS IS IN PLACE OVER THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH
DEWPOINTS HANGING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. MEANWHILE...A PLUME OF
SUBTROPICAL AIR HAS SPREAD OVER THE REGION IN THE MID LVLS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THIS BROAD ZONE
OF RICH MOISTURE AND WEAK CONVERGENCE NEAR SAID SURFACE
TROUGH/BOUNDARY. MORE WDLY SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT AS UPPER SYSTEM/JET STREAK PASS BY TO OUR NORTH.

THE NEXT DISCERNIBLE SYSTEM WILL CREST THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES
RIDGE AND DIVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE THEME OF PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND
KEEP POPS HIGHER DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

THE EURO AND GFS HAVE LATCHED BACK ONTO A MORE AGGRESSIVE AND
FARTHER WEST DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS SHOULD BRING A DECENT COLD FRONT SOUTH THRU THE PLAINS
MONDAY. A COUPLE OF NICE DAYS ARE IN STORE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGHS DROPPING BACK INTO THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S. CHANCES
OF RAIN WILL INCREASE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK IN A NW FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT.

LACY/16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  94  74  95 /  40  30  30  30
FSM   75  96  74  95 /  40  30  20  20
MLC   74  96  74  97 /  40  30  20  20
BVO   70  93  70  94 /  40  30  30  30
FYV   70  91  69  91 /  50  30  20  40
BYV   69  90  68  90 /  50  30  20  40
MKO   72  94  72  95 /  50  30  20  20
MIO   70  92  72  92 /  40  30  30  40
F10   73  94  74  96 /  40  30  20  20
HHW   75  97  74  98 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

LONG TERM....30-16

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
455 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-091000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
455 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS..
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LIES ACROSS THE AREA... GENERALLY
FROM TULSA TO FAYETTEVILLE. INTERMITTENT THUNDERSTORMS... SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE... HAVE BEEN ONGOING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN OVERNIGHT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALMOST ANYWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
SOME OF THESE MAY PUSH SEVERE LIMITS AS WELL.

IT REMAINS VERY HOT AND HUMID SOUTH OF THE FRONT. HEAT INDICES
RANGED FROM 100 TO 105 DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL
SLOWLY IMPROVE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BEFORE IT GETS A PUSH TO THE SOUTH MONDAY. THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG WITH A LIMITED
SEVERE POTENTIAL. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO
APPROACH 105 IN SOME PLACES... MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
448 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014

ARZ029-OKZ074-076-082215-
HASKELL OK-LE FLORE OK-SEBASTIAN AR-
448 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 515 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
     SOUTHWESTERN SEBASTIAN

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHEASTERN HASKELL AND NORTHERN LE FLORE

AT 448 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF KANIMA TO 8 MILES EAST OF
HEAVENER RUNESTONE STATE PARK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH. SOME
LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...KEOTA...
KANIMA...POTEAU...HEAVENER...HOWE...SHADY POINT...MILTON...PANAMA...
BOKOSHE...PATTERSON AND HEAVENER RUNESTONE STATE PARK.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3494 9435 3495 9436 3492 9444 3483 9444
      3479 9448 3528 9508 3539 9490 3538 9489
      3535 9491 3536 9485 3532 9481 3495 9430
TIME...MOT...LOC 2148Z 227DEG 9KT 3531 9496 3487 9443

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
501 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014

OKZ054-055-082230-
OSAGE OK-WASHINGTON OK-
501 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 530 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     CENTRAL OSAGE AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON

AT 501 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES SOUTH OF PAWHUSKA TO 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
OCHELATA...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...PAWHUSKA...WOLCO...BARNSDALL...
PERSHING...TALLANT...NELAGONEY AND OCHELATA.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

LAT...LON 3670 9637 3663 9588 3649 9599 3659 9647
TIME...MOT...LOC 2201Z 263DEG 9KT 3663 9635 3654 9592

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
505 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014

OKZ057-061-062-082245-
CRAIG OK-MAYES OK-ROGERS OK-
505 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 545 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHERN CRAIG...NORTHERN MAYES AND NORTHEASTERN ROGERS

AT 505 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTHWEST
OF ADAIR...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...BIG CABIN...STRANG...ADAIR AND
PENSACOLA.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3655 9509 3633 9512 3640 9546 3656 9542
TIME...MOT...LOC 2205Z 278DEG 10KT 3646 9533

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
534 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014

OKZ054-082300-
OSAGE OK-
534 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 600 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     EASTERN OSAGE

AT 534 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 2 MILES SOUTH OF
NELAGONEY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...BARNSDALL...PERSHING...TALLANT AND
NELAGONEY.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

LAT...LON 3664 9602 3648 9616 3658 9636 3669 9627
TIME...MOT...LOC 2234Z 295DEG 8KT 3660 9623

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
557 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014

ARZ020-029-OKZ076-082330-
FRANKLIN AR-LE FLORE OK-SEBASTIAN AR-
557 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 630 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
     SOUTHWESTERN FRANKLIN AND SOUTHERN SEBASTIAN

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     CENTRAL LE FLORE

AT 557 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BLOOMER TO 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF
HODGEN...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3531 9390 3523 9393 3522 9402 3513 9404
      3514 9413 3510 9414 3507 9422 3499 9422
      3495 9430 3495 9436 3493 9444 3485 9444
      3482 9450 3482 9490 3532 9411 3532 9381
      3531 9382
TIME...MOT...LOC 2257Z 270DEG 15KT 3527 9409 3487 9470