Heat Advisory 6, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
307 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A SHORT TERM HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE
FORT SMITH AREA DOWN INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AS DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID 70S AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 90S ARE YIELDING HEAT INDICES
NEAR 105 DEGREES.

TYPICAL SUMMER LIKE UPPER AND SURFACE PATTERN ACROSS THE PLAINS
TODAY. THE FLOW ALOFT IS NEARLY ZONAL...SANDWICHED BETWEEN A MID
LVL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH AND A LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO SD. AT
THE SURFACE...A SURFACE TROUGH/BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM WESTERN NORTH
TX ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK AND WEST CENTRAL AR TO THE MO BOOTHEEL. A
VERY JUICY AIRMASS IS IN PLACE OVER THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH
DEWPOINTS HANGING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. MEANWHILE...A PLUME OF
SUBTROPICAL AIR HAS SPREAD OVER THE REGION IN THE MID LVLS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THIS BROAD ZONE
OF RICH MOISTURE AND WEAK CONVERGENCE NEAR SAID SURFACE
TROUGH/BOUNDARY. MORE WDLY SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT AS UPPER SYSTEM/JET STREAK PASS BY TO OUR NORTH.

THE NEXT DISCERNIBLE SYSTEM WILL CREST THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES
RIDGE AND DIVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE THEME OF PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND
KEEP POPS HIGHER DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

THE EURO AND GFS HAVE LATCHED BACK ONTO A MORE AGGRESSIVE AND
FARTHER WEST DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS SHOULD BRING A DECENT COLD FRONT SOUTH THRU THE PLAINS
MONDAY. A COUPLE OF NICE DAYS ARE IN STORE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGHS DROPPING BACK INTO THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S. CHANCES
OF RAIN WILL INCREASE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK IN A NW FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT.

LACY/16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  94  74  95 /  40  30  30  30
FSM   75  96  74  95 /  40  30  20  20
MLC   74  96  74  97 /  40  30  20  20
BVO   70  93  70  94 /  40  30  30  30
FYV   70  91  69  91 /  50  30  20  40
BYV   69  90  68  90 /  50  30  20  40
MKO   72  94  72  95 /  50  30  20  20
MIO   70  92  72  92 /  40  30  30  40
F10   73  94  74  96 /  40  30  20  20
HHW   75  97  74  98 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

LONG TERM....30-16

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1251 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-091000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1251 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA... EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...TONIGHT.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR ANY LEFT
OVER BOUNDARIES FROM THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION. A FEW STORMS MAY BE
STRONG...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

AREAS THAT RECEIVE THE MOST SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON MAY SEE HEAT
INDEX VALUES BRIEFLY APPROACH 105 IN SOME PLACES...MAINLY ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A LIMITED SEVERE
WEATHER RISK WILL EXIST WITH THESE STORMS...WITH LARGE HAIL BEING
THE MAIN RISK TONIGHT.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...DANGEROUS HEAT
POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BEFORE IT GETS A PUSH TO THE SOUTH MONDAY. THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG WITH A LIMITED
SEVERE POTENTIAL. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO
APPROACH 105 IN SOME PLACES...MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
226 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014

ARZ001-010-OKZ063-069-082000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-DELAWARE OK-WASHINGTON AR-
226 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 300 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     SOUTHWESTERN BENTON AND WESTERN WASHINGTON

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHEASTERN DELAWARE AND NORTHERN ADAIR

AT 226 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER NATURAL FALLS
STATE PARK...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...WESTVILLE...BALLARD...WATTS...WEST
SILOAM SPRINGS...SILOAM SPRINGS...LAKE FRANCIS...SUMMERS...
CINCINNATI...WEDINGTON AND NATURAL FALLS STATE PARK.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3615 9434 3593 9449 3608 9480 3610 9480
      3627 9471
TIME...MOT...LOC 1926Z 328DEG 5KT 3614 9467