Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
619 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
BROKEN LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS NOW THROUGH ABOUT 03Z WITH SFC
WIND GUSTS POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 40 KNOTS AT XNA/FYV AND BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL STORMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG
FRONT/DRY LINE IN EASTERN OK AND IMPACT MLC/FSM THROUGH 04-05Z...
AGAIN WITH POTENTIAL FOR 40KT PLUS GUSTS AND IFR CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE...FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA AFTER 05Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AND WINDS SHIFTING TO NW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER/MID 80S HAS ERODED ANY CAP THAT
EXISTED...WITH CONVECTION CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG ADVANCING COLD
FRONT ACROSS NE OK. SBCAPES RUNNING AROUND 3000-4000 J/KG AND
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-50KTS ARE HIGHLY SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A
TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE. LOCAL MODELS BRING THIS ACTIVITY INTO NW
AROUND 22-23Z...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON POSSIBLE WARM
SECTOR STORMS ACROSS SE OK AS WELL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT
EARLY THIS EVENING AS IT ENTERS SE OK. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL
COME TO AN END BY LATE EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT FINALLY SURGES
THROUGH THE REGION.

DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A RIDGE OF SFC
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. A LIGHT FREEZE IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
MORNING IN PARTS OF NW AR...WITH LOW TEMPS FALLING JUST BELOW 32F.

NEXT UPPER SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING LATER SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE INCREASED POPS SOME...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN
HALF OF THE AREA. WILL MAINTAIN THE MENTION OF ISOLATED STORMS FOR
SE OK/WCNTRL AR...ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE
MARGINAL GIVEN THE LINGERING RIDGING CONDITIONS ALONG THE GULF.
PERSISTENT NWLY UPPER FLOW WILL KEEP THE COOL WEATHER GOING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH WARMER WEATHER RETURNING BY WEDNESDAY AS
SOUTH WINDS KICK BACK IN.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...14

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
524 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-041000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
524 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OF A JAY TO HENRYETTA LINE.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...CRITICAL.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OF A GROVE TO OKMULGEE LINE.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR MIAMI TO HENRYETTA AT 5 PM.
THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TO THE EAST AND BUILD SOUTH
ALONG THE FRONT AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. WIND PROFILES ARE
FAVORABLE FOR ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND FALLING HUMIDITY VALUES BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A LIMITED FIRE DANGER
INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.
TUESDAY...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT INTO
FRIDAY WITH COOLER CONDITIONS. ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
ON SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON TUESDAY...BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM...WILL AGAIN CREATE AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER THREAT.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
618 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

ARZ001-002-010-011-040000-
BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-MADISON AR-WASHINGTON AR-
618 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 700 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     BENTON...NORTHWESTERN CARROLL...NORTHWESTERN MADISON AND
     NORTHERN WASHINGTON

AT 618 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM GATEWAY TO 2 MILES EAST OF SPRINGDALE TO CINCINNATI...
MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.
RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3611 9366 3596 9453 3617 9455 3651 9403
      3650 9359
TIME...MOT...LOC 2318Z 256DEG 20KT 3648 9391 3619 9408
          3603 9448

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
637 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

OKZ066-070-071-040000-
MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-
637 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 700 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHWESTERN MCINTOSH

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     WESTERN MUSKOGEE

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHERN OKMULGEE

AT 637 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF HENRYETTA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL
BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...HENRYETTA...DEWAR...HOFFMAN...
GRAYSON...ERAM...PIERCE...HITCHITA AND COUNCIL HILL.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3566 9574 3550 9554 3530 9596 3533 9599
      3537 9598 3538 9604 3540 9606
TIME...MOT...LOC 2337Z 229DEG 25KT 3541 9594

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
641 PM CDT THU APR 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     HAIL             MUSKOGEE                35.75N 95.37W
04/03/2014  E2.00 INCH       MUSKOGEE           OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            IN GRANDVIEW

&&

JDS

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