Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1129 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE 06Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY STALL OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN
WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY. VFR CIGS ARE
DVLPG NEAR THE FRONT NOW...AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...WITH A GRADUAL LOWERING DOWN TO HIGH END MVFR FOR
THE NE OK SITES. MOISTURE RETURN SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL LEAD
TO MVFR CIGS AT KMLC BY TUESDAY MORNING. SKIES SHOULD TRY TO
SCATTER OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER AT MOST SITES. CHANCES
FOR TSRA SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE KS BORDER...SO WILL NOT
INCLUDE A MENTION IN ANY TAF.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 726 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A
COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION AND IS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE UNTIL SOMETIME AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED THE POPS
IN THE HOURLY GRIDS OVERNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS OCCURRENCE.
UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT OUT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE 00Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF AN APPRCHG COLD FRNT HAS BROUGHT MVFR
CIGS TO THE NW AR SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD SLIDE
EAST OF THE FYV/XNA TERMINALS SOON...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING. SOME SHRA...MAYBE AN ISOLD TSRA...WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT INTO NW AR THIS EVENING...SO HAVE INSERTED A VCSH MENTION.
ACRS ERN OK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE FORECAST. WIND SHIFT WITH THE FRONT WILL SWING WINDS AROUND
FROM SRLY TO NRLY TO NERLY. THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY STALL DOWN
OVER SOUTHERN OK BY TOMORROW MORNING. LOW LVL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION
ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO VFR/HIGH
END MVFR CIGS AT THE TERMINALS ON TUESDAY...WITH SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT/DRY LINE IS POISED TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. FIRE WEATHER WILL BE A CONCERN
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS THIS BOUNDARY
MOVES INTO THE AREA. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR AREAS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF TULSA FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S
AND RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE TEENS. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE THIS EVENING.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA WILL MORE THAN LIKELY EXIT THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE
VALID TIME AT 00Z TUESDAY. HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT AS IT MOVES ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BEFORE STALLING OUT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WORK BACK TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ON TUESDAY. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SMALL POPS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE
WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF THE OKLAHOMA/KANSAS LINE.

WITH THE WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...THE AIR MASS ACROSS
THE REGION WILL BECOME PRIMED FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS
TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND SURFACE DEW POINTS
SURGE INTO THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. MEANWHILE...A MID-LEVEL LOW THAT
IS CURRENTLY OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST WILL SETTLE INTO THE SOUTHWEST
UNITED STATES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA. A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL INTERACT WITH THE DRY LINE ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO SPARK THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT. THERE WILL BE
ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ANY OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AS
THE MID-LEVEL LOW MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND INTO
THE PLAINS. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THE DRY LINE WILL HAVE MOVED INTO
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE DRY
LINE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND PROGRESS TO THE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING TORNADOES.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA.

AFTER A DRY DAY ON FRIDAY...THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS RETURN SATURDAY AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   45  68  61  80 /   0  10  30  30
FSM   53  75  60  79 /  30  20  20  40
MLC   52  72  66  79 /  50  30  20  40
BVO   38  66  53  80 /   0   0  30  30
FYV   43  71  58  76 /  40  20  30  40
BYV   43  69  57  77 /  50  10  30  40
MKO   47  71  62  79 /  50  20  20  40
MIO   39  67  56  78 /  10  10  40  40
F10   47  70  64  80 /  10  20  20  40
HHW   56  73  64  79 /  20  20  20  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...30

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
457 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-011000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
457 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
	RISK...LIMITED.
        AREA...FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
        ONSET...ONGOING.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHWEST OF HIGHWAY 44.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
AS A COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING... THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO ALONG THE FRONT. VERY DRY AIR BEHIND THE FRONT/DRYLINE AND
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE WITH GUSTY WINDS TO CREATE AN
ELEVATED RISK OF WILDFIRES INTO THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
LATER IN THE EVENING AS TEMPERATURES COOL AND WINDS EASE.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
TONIGHT... STALL EARLY TUESDAY AND THEN LIFT BACK NORTHWARD AS A
WARM FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. DURING THE DAY TUESDAY... SOUTH OF THE WARM
FRONT... GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING AN INCREASING FIRE
DANGER.

THE WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL JUST NORTH OF THE REGION
WEDNESDAY... WHILE A DRYLINE SETS UP JUST TO THE WEST. INCREASING
MOISTURE AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY... INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES BACK THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT. DETAILS WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED... THOUGH ALL
MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER INCREASES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AS DETAILS
AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS CONTINUE TO BE REFINED. A REVIEW OF YOUR
SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY AND ACTION PLANS IS RECOMMENDED.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>