Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
257 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
A GOOD CHUNK OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS...PRIMARILY TO THE NORTH OF A LARGELY STALLED FRONT
STRETCHING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IN
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH FURTHER DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ELEVATED INSTABILITY SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SEVERE HAIL...ALTHOUGH REPORTS TO THIS POINT HAVE
INDICATED SUB SEVERE HAIL WITH THE CURRENT ACTIVITY. THE UPPER
WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ONGOING STORMS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
TONIGHT...WITH COVERAGE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE EVENING. CLEARING
SKIES OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL LEAD
TO COOLER TEMPERATURES BY TOMORROW MORNING. SOME SPOTS NEAR THE
KANSAS BORDER MAY DROP TO AT OR NEAR FREEZING. THE WEEKEND SHOULD
BEGIN ON A PLEASANT NOTE TOMORROW...WITH SUNNY SKIES...LIGHTER
WINDS...AND HIGHS IN THE 60S.

VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL OCCUR SUNDAY...PERHAPS BLEEDING OVER
INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON ALSO. PARTS OF THE AREA WILL APPROACH RED
FLAG CRITERIA ON SUNDAY...WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...NEARING 80 DEGREES...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES NEAR
25 PERCENT...AND SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING ABOVE 30 MPH. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO EVENTUALLY SEE AT LEAST A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA SUNDAY.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY A FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
AREA...WITH LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT.
MOISTURE SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED. THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...AND MOVE
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONTAL MOVEMENT AS WELL.

THE NEXT SHOT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL COME MAINLY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT MOVES BACK SOUTHWARD
AS A LARGE UPPER STORM SYSTEM SWINGS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
REGION. CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE TWO MAIN TIME PERIODS
FOR STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ONE DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND THE OTHER WEDNESDAY EVENING. SOME STORMS COULD
LINGER INTO THURSDAY.

MODEL INCONSISTENCIES EXIST FOR THE FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY
FORECAST...SO HAVE GONE AHEAD AND LEFT THE FORECAST DRY BEYOND
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES COULD ALSO GET CHILLY DURING THAT PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   36  67  42  78 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   42  67  40  76 /  60   0   0   0
MLC   40  68  42  76 /  20   0   0   0
BVO   32  67  38  77 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   34  61  32  72 /  50   0   0   0
BYV   38  60  37  72 /  60   0   0   0
MKO   37  66  40  76 /  20   0   0   0
MIO   36  62  38  76 /  20   0   0   0
F10   38  66  42  76 /  10   0   0   0
HHW   43  71  40  76 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....22

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
108 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-291000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
108 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014

...LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM EUFAULA
               OKLAHOMA TO FAYETTEVILLE ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTERNOON.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTERNOON.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44.
	ONSET...AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
A LIMITED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS...WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY HAZARD.  THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE EXTREME SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE DAMAGING WINDS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS.  AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST.
ADDITIONALLY...GUSTY NORTH WINDS ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF HIGHER FIRE SPREAD POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER
         POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
WILDFIRE POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE NOTICEABLY ON SUNDAY AS GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES RETURN.  A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL EXIST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...OTHERWISE GUSTY WINDS AND
HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE.  LOW THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.  THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK CONTINUES TO APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE WEATHER.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MEDIA ATTENTION REGARDING THE
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.  UNDERSTAND
THIS POTENTIAL DOES EXIST...HOWEVER DETAILS AND POTENTIAL
IMPACTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AND ANY STATEMENTS OTHERWISE SHOULD
BE MET WITH SKEPTICISM.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
228 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014

OKZ060-066-067-070-282000-
MUSKOGEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
228 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 300 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     NORTHWESTERN MUSKOGEE

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHEASTERN OKMULGEE...SOUTHEASTERN TULSA AND WESTERN WAGONER

AT 228 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES WEST OF
STONEBLUFF...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...LEONARD...STONEBLUFF...REDBIRD...
COWETA AND ONETA.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3613 9559 3609 9555 3608 9558 3607 9554
      3595 9542 3580 9577 3589 9586
TIME...MOT...LOC 1928Z 237DEG 21KT 3588 9577

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
237 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014

ARZ010-011-019-020-OKZ072-282015-
CRAWFORD AR-FRANKLIN AR-MADISON AR-SEQUOYAH OK-WASHINGTON AR-
237 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 315 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     CRAWFORD...SOUTHWESTERN MADISON AND WASHINGTON

IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
     NORTHWESTERN FRANKLIN

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     EASTERN SEQUOYAH

AT 237 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF ODELL TO NATURAL DAM TO 2 MILES
WEST OF DORA...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

A LARGE PORTION OF CRAWFORD...NORTHWESTERN FRANKLIN...SOUTHWESTERN
MADISON...WASHINGTON AND EASTERN SEQUOYAH COUNTIES WILL BE AFFECTED
BY THESE STORMS THROUGH 315 PM CDT.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

LAT...LON 3553 9393 3543 9437 3545 9441 3542 9442
      3540 9453 3565 9445 3580 9450 3588 9451
      3611 9417 3585 9382
TIME...MOT...LOC 1937Z 248DEG 29KT 3581 9443 3568 9436
          3546 9444

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
243 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014

OKZ068-069-072-282030-
ADAIR OK-CHEROKEE OK-SEQUOYAH OK-
243 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 330 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHEASTERN CHEROKEE AND NORTHERN SEQUOYAH

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHWESTERN ADAIR

AT 244 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 2 MILES WEST OF
VIAN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...BUNCH...MC KEY...VIAN...BRUSHY...
MARBLE CITY...BOX AND BRUSHY LAKE STATE PARK.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

LAT...LON 3582 9470 3556 9453 3542 9500 3556 9508
TIME...MOT...LOC 1944Z 241DEG 25KT 3551 9497

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