Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
850 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ENTERING EXTREME NW AR AND
EXTENDS SOUTHWEST INTO SCNTRL OK. THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SW MO SHOULD EVENTUALLY BACKBUILD ALONG THE
FRONT INTO PARTS OF NW AR AND FAR ERN OK THE REMAINDER
OF THE EVENING. STILL COULD SEE A FEW SEVERE
STORMS...ALTHOUGH THE THREAT CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH.

UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   42  59  36  70 /  10  20  10   0
FSM   50  65  41  70 /  60  70  30   0
MLC   49  64  40  70 /  20  50  10   0
BVO   37  58  32  69 /  20  20  10   0
FYV   40  61  33  64 /  60  60  30   0
BYV   39  59  37  64 /  60  60  30   0
MKO   44  61  37  70 /  20  50  10   0
MIO   38  58  35  66 /  20  20  10   0
F10   45  60  38  70 /  20  40  10   0
HHW   58  75  44  73 /  30  50  20   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

LONG TERM....18

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
847 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2014

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-281000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
847 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2014

...EVENING SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTER 9 PM.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI THIS EVENING MAY EVENTUALLY
BUILD SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT IS SLOWLY
MOVING THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS. THE
BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS THE REMAINDER OF EVENING WILL BE
ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA. WHILE THE THREAT
OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER HAS DIMINISHED SOME...A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD STILL PRODUCE 60 MPH WINDS AND HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN
DIAMETER. THE SEVERE STORM THREAT WILL COME TO AN END AFTER
MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT IN PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SUNDAY...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT STALLS ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. AN APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCE INTERACTING WITH THE
BOUNDARY MAY RESULT IN ONE OR TWO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...BUT THE OVERALL
WINDOW FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE SMALL ON FRIDAY.

WARMER AND MORE SETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND...WITH INCREASED FIRE DANGER ANTICIPATED BY SUNDAY WITH
WARM TEMPERATURES...INCREASING SOUTH WINDS...AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING LOW. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL
LARGELY BE HELD AT BAY UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHEN A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION...OFFERING THE NEXT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
927 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2014

ARZ001-010-011-OKZ069-280315-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-MADISON AR-WASHINGTON AR-
927 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1015 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     SOUTHEASTERN BENTON...NORTHWESTERN MADISON AND WASHINGTON

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     CENTRAL ADAIR

AT 927 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM OAK GROVE TO 3 MILES NORTH OF MARIETTA...MOVING EAST
AT 35 MPH.

A LARGE PORTION OF SOUTHEASTERN BENTON...NORTHWESTERN MADISON...
WASHINGTON AND CENTRAL ADAIR COUNTIES WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE
STORMS THROUGH 1015 PM CDT.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3576 9399 3576 9449 3583 9479 3633 9412
      3630 9366
TIME...MOT...LOC 0227Z 263DEG 32KT 3621 9414 3588 9463

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
952 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2014

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-OKZ068>072-074-280315-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CRAWFORD AR-HASKELL
OK-MADISON AR-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-SEQUOYAH OK-WASHINGTON AR-
952 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1015 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     EASTERN BENTON...CARROLL...NORTHWESTERN CRAWFORD...NORTHERN
     MADISON AND WASHINGTON

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHEASTERN CHEROKEE...SOUTHEASTERN MUSKOGEE AND SEQUOYAH

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHEASTERN HASKELL AND EASTERN MCINTOSH

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHERN ADAIR

AT 948 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM WESTERN CARROLL COUNTY ARKANSAS TO SOUTHEAST
MUSKOGEE COUNTY OKLAHOMA...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. SOME COUNTIES
THAT WILL BE AFFECTED INCLUDE CARROLL WASHINGTON MADISON
CRAWFORD FRANKLIN AND SEBASTIAN COUNTIES IN ARKANSAS...ALONG
WITH SOUTHEAST ADAIR SEQUOYAH EXTREME SOUTHEAST MUSKOGEE AND
LATIMER COUNTIES IN OKLAHOMA.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3582 9390 3534 9472 3532 9543 3597 9437
      3651 9365 3650 9329 3639 9329
TIME...MOT...LOC 0248Z 288DEG 24KT 3648 9364 3594 9426
          3544 9506