Severe Thunderstorm Warning 202, NWS Tulsa, OK

586 
WWUS54 KTSA 012031
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
331 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

OKC105-012100-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0202.000000T0000Z-141001T2100Z/
NOWATA OK-
331 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN
NOWATA COUNTY UNTIL 400 PM CDT...

AT 329 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SOUTH
COFFEYVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

* THE STORM WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF THE
  INDICATED COUNTY..

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9540 3696 9540 3695 9541 3694 9541
      3694 9543 3687 9544 3689 9560 3700 9563
TIME...MOT...LOC 2032Z 262DEG 25KT 3696 9554

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

787 
WWUS54 KTSA 012046
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
346 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

OKC105-012056-
/O.CAN.KTSA.SV.W.0202.000000T0000Z-141001T2100Z/
NOWATA OK-
346 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN NOWATA COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED
AREA.  HOWEVER...GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS
THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3700 9540 3696 9540 3695 9541 3694 9541
      3694 9543 3687 9544 3689 9560 3700 9563
TIME...MOT...LOC 2046Z 262DEG 25KT 3697 9542

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1216 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT...WITH TSRA POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS AT EACH SITE
THEREAFTER. ISOLATED TSRA COULD AFFECT MAINLY BVO/TUL/RVS THIS
AFTN...BUT CHANCES NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. MVFR TO
MAYBE IFR CIGS POSSIBLE...BUT NOT A GIVEN...AT THE AR TERMINALS
TONIGHT BEFORE ANY STORM POTENTIAL ARRIVES...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
HINT AT THIS WITH A SCT LOW CLOUD GROUP.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 947 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...

MOST OF THE MORNING STORMS HAVE PUSHED NORTH OF THE KANSAS BORDER
AND DIMINISHED IN INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH A FEW LIGHTER
SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. HAVE
DECREASED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THE MORNING. AFTERNOON
POPS STILL LOOK GOOD...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES...INCLUDING SEVERE
POTENTIAL...ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER. GREATEST STORM COVERAGE AND
SEVERE THREAT TODAY WILL BE NORTH OF THE BORDER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE 12Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW...

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SOME EARLY MORNING STORMS MAY GRAZE KBVO BEFORE THEY HEAD UP INTO
KANSAS...OTHERWISE EXPECT A QUIET VFR WEATHER DAY. ANOTHER
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION IS DOWN AT KMLC. LOW STRATUS IS STREAMING NORTH
OVER EAST TX...REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER IT WILL MAKE IT TO KMLC.
STORM CHANCES RAMP UP AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AS A STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES. HAVE INSERTED VCTS AND TEMPO MENTIONS OF TSRA AT THE
ERN OK SITES AFT 09Z. MODEL TIME/HEIGHT RH PLOTS SHOW LOW CLOUD
POTENTIAL AT THE NW AR/SE OK SITES LATE TONIGHT. WILL INSERT SCT
LOW CLOUD GROUPS AND WILL PASS ON CONCERNS TO NEXT SHIFT.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FEW CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING IN
NORTH CENTRAL OK NEAR THE AXIS OF LOW LEVEL JET...AND ISOLATED
CELLS IN SW ARKANSAS AT LEADING EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE SURGING
NORTH. SOME OF THE ELEVATED STORMS TO THE WEST WILL LIKELY IMPACT
PARTS OF NE OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING NORTH OF I-44...BUT WE SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY CAPPED TO AND POTENTIAL SFC-BASED STORMS THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH BEST CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING NEAR WARM FRONT IN KANSAS
LATER TODAY. ONCE AGAIN WILL SEE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A FEW SPOTS IN NE OKLAHOMA APPROACHING 90.

A FEW DRY LINE STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON TO OUR
WEST...BUT MAIN CHANCE OF STORMS OVERNIGHT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL SURGE OF DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS POTENT
SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THROUGH LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE WEST. EXPECT
ELEVATED STORMS TO DEVELOP WITHIN WARM CONVEYOR BELT OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN OK. THIS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO A SEVERE SQUALL LINE BY THU AFTERNOON AS
UPPER WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AT FAVORABLE TIME
OF DAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND EVENT...PARTICULARLY OVER
FAR EASTERN OK AND MUCH OF WESTERN AR. STORMS WILL SWEEP QUICKLY
EAST OF THE AREA THU EVENING.

STRONGER SURGE OF COOL CANADIAN AIR WILL SLIDE DOWN THE FRONT
RANGE AND INTO OK/AR BY FRIDAY...RESULTING IN A BREEZY AND MUCH
COOLER DAY. TEMPS BY SAT MORNING WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST WE
HAVE SEEN IN QUITE SOME TIME WITH 40S IN MANY LOCATIONS...AND A
FEW UPPER 30S EVEN POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE COLDER VALLEY SPOTS OF
NW ARKANSAS OR EXTREME NE OKLAHOMA. A NICE WEEKEND WILL FOLLOW...
WITH TEMPS EVENTUALLY WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND DRY WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...22

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1245 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-021000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1245 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

...SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL TONIGHT WITH INCREASED THREAT TOMORROW...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER.
	ONSET...LATE AFTERNOON.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
	ONSET...THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
KANSAS BORDER. GREATER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE FOUND IN
KANSAS ITSELF. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AFFECTING PARTS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA BEFORE SUNRISE. A LIMITED THREAT OF LARGE HAIL
AND STRONG WINDS WILL EXIST.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THURSDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING THURSDAY
MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND SHOULD CONTINUE
MOVING EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG
THE COLD FRONT IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA...PUSHING INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY AFTERNOON OR EVENING STORMS...WITH HIGH
INSTABILITY AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR PRESENT.
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING MAY ALSO
OCCUR...MAINLY IN PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS THAT SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAINFALL. THE THUNDERSTORMS
AND ATTENDANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD MOVE INTO CENTRAL
ARKANSAS BY LATE EVENING...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR ESTABLISHING
ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA THEREAFTER.

QUIET WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND AT LEAST THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.