Severe Thunderstorm Warning 135, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
620 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT EASTERN OKLAHOMA SITES WILL
BE AFFECTED BY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATION WITH THIS.
OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD... GENERALLY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MID TO HIGH
CLOUD DECKS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014/

DISCUSSION...

INITIAL WEAK COLD FRONT JUST NOW BEGINNING TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE RED RIVER. ISOLATED STORMS
REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT...WITH ANY DEVELOPMENT
LIKELY TO BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR
OBSERVATIONS ARE NOT SHOWING ANYTHING IMMINENT IN EASTERN
OKLAHOMA...BUT SOME MODEST CU IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT AND WEAK SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN WESTERN SECTIONS
OF THE STATE.

COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KNOCK HIGH TEMPERATURES TO NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS TOMORROW IN MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS
FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...WHICH WILL REMAIN VERY NEAR THE
STATIONARY FRONT. THIS COULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE
STRONGER MAIN COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH PARTS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ALONG THIS
FRONT AS WELL. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY CONTINUE
TO LOOK 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN MOST SPOTS.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH THE LATEST DATA HINTING THAT IT MAY
TAKE UNTIL FRIDAY TO COMPLETELY CLEAR WESTERN ARKANSAS. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH A WARM FRONT PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR THE
HEAVIEST RAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND PERHAPS FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TO ALSO AFFECT WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THE LATEST NAM RUNS
SHOWING THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS ARE BEING DISCOUNTED AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE
GOOD CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE OTHER MODELS. THE INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY EVEN COOLER THAN TUESDAYS...AND LIKELY 15
TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE
DEFINITELY IN JEOPARDY...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY THE 17TH AND PERHAPS
TUESDAY THE 15TH IN A FEW SPOTS. WEDNESDAY THE 16TH LOOK SAFE AT
THIS POINT...ESPECIALLY FOR FORT SMITH AND FAYETTEVILLE.

FOR THOSE CURIOUS ABOUT THE CURRENT RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
FOR NEXT WEEK...

TULSA...78 /15TH/...72 /16TH/...82 /17TH/
FORT SMITH...73 /15TH/...68 /16TH/...76 /17TH/
FAYETTEVILLE...76 /15TH/...65 /16TH/...76 /17TH/
MCALESTER...80 /15TH/...71 /16TH/...82 /17TH/

RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM UP NEXT WEEKEND...WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...06

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
456 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-141000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
455 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ALONG OR NEAR A WEAK FRONT THAT LIES ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY THIS
EVENING. A LIMITED RISK OF DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL IS FORECAST.

HEAT INDICES THIS AFTERNOON RANGE FROM 100 TO 105 DEGREES OVER A
LARGE PORTION OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. TAKE
PROPER PRECAUTIONS FROM THE HEAT.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MONDAY THRU WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT
WHEN A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. SEVERAL ROUNDS
OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST IN THE POST FRONTAL NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME FROM MID TO LATE WEEK. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LOOKS
LOW...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE TO APPEAR LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

LACY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
711 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

OKZ057-058-062-063-140045-
CRAIG OK-DELAWARE OK-MAYES OK-OTTAWA OK-
711 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 745 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHEASTERN CRAIG...NORTHWESTERN DELAWARE...NORTHEASTERN MAYES
     AND SOUTHWESTERN OTTAWA

AT 711 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER CLEORA...
MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS
STORM INCLUDE...ZENA...CLEORA...GROVE...BERNICE...KETCHUM...BERNICE
STATE PARK...CHEROKEE STATE PARK AND HONEY CREEK STATE PARK.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

LAT...LON 3672 9478 3649 9475 3648 9508 3666 9511
TIME...MOT...LOC 0011Z 263DEG 8KT 3658 9498