Alert archive / Kansas / Special Weather Statements in 2014

Special Weather Statement, NWS Topeka, KS

September 1, 2014Dickinson County, Kansas

NWS Topeka, KS issued this special weather statement at Sep 1, 2014, 12:13 AM CDT for Dickinson County, Kansas. It was in force for 32 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Sep 1, 2014, 12:13 AM CDT (05:13 UTC)
Expired: Sep 1, 2014, 12:45 AM CDT
In force: 32 min
Issued by: NWS Topeka, KS

County Dickinson County, KS

The radar

The Topeka radar (KTWX), 86 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 05:15 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Topeka, KS (KFOE), launched 00:00Z, 5.2 hours before the alert went out and 134 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1759 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -82 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 2025 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 28 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 89 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 276 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 2.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Topeka, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Aug 31, 6:36 PM CDT, 5 hours 37 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 31, 6:36 PM CDT, 5 hours 37 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
636 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

Elevated activity has weakened and exited with good insolation in
recent hours in weak subsidence allowing for a quick increase in
winds and temps. 19Z surface observations suggest cold front from
south central Nebraska to the SW corner of Kansas with some CU
development on the north end. Recent water vapor imagery shows
main upper wave pushing through southern Wyoming with convection
in NC Colorado well behind the front.

Overall setup continues to support a rather wet next 12-18 hours
with cold front coming into northern and western areas overnight and
upper trough following, with low level jet ramping up to around
60kts. Nearby 12Z observed precipitable water values were at to just
above normal and continued advection of deeper moisture to the south
will pump these values up.

Still having some question on the early hours of the event. With
surface low pressure in far SE Colorado, convergence along the front
is not great, and the main upper trough well behind will not boost
convergence until perhaps the daytime hours of Labor Day. Various
higher resolution models are delayed with the convective initiation
until around 23-0Z and could occur well into the CWA. Dewpoint
depressions should remain in the 25-40F range for somewhat high
cloud bases, but increasing low level wind fields will support
strong low level helicity. Again, with the trough lagging, mid level
winds are somewhat low to support a long-lived supercell, and wind
and hail continue to the be the main severe weather concerns with ML
CAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg and downdraft CAPE around 1200 J/kg currently
analyzed. The high-res models are also similar with a secondary
impulse of convection moving through in the late evening to
overnight hours, perhaps via a sustained MCS from the current NC
Colorado storms. This could track over northern areas again and
bring an increased flooding concern, but with recent rains spotty at
best, am not confident enough for a Watch. Convection should overall
slowly clear from northwest to central areas overnight.

Cold front still appears to sag south into southern areas for the
afternoon hours of Labor Day. This again is not a clear-cut forecast
with convective activity possibly affecting the location of the
effective front. If at least some insolation can occur, cooling mid
levels behind the upper trough should allow for moderate instability
to again develop along and ahead of the effective front with plenty
of shear to support severe storms. This time, upper winds will be
stronger but weaker near the surface.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

For Monday night and Tuesday, have continued chances for precip as
the expected outflow boundary from tonight's convection gets hung
up across southeast and south central KS. In general would anticipate
POPs diminishing and becoming increasingly confined to far
southern portions of the forecast area with time through the day
Tuesday as the upper forcing moves east of the area and the low
level jet veers to the southwest decreasing convergence along the
front.

Tuesday night may be more interesting in terms of strong to
possibly severe thunderstorms. Most model guidance is pointing to
strong theta-e advection overnight with good isentropic upglide.
Additionally model forecast soundings have fairly steep mid level
lapse rates with potentially 1000 to 1500 J/km of elevated
instability. The NAM also shows around 30 KTS of effective bulk
shear, so it is not out of the question that there could be some
elevated storms capable of producing large hail. This activity may
linger into Wednesday morning. After that the forecast is
expecting a dry period through Thursday before models bring a
frontal system into the area Thursday night through Friday night.
Because of this boundary, have continued with some chance POPs for
Thursday night through Friday. By Saturday, both the GFS and ECMWF
build a surface ridge into the central plains with dryer air
advecting in. Because of this, have trended POPs down for Saturday
and kept Sunday dry.

Temps are expected to remain warm through Thursday until the
frontal system enters the region with chances for rain. The
warmest days look to be Wednesday and Thursday as 850 temps warm
to around 25C. Therefore have highs in the mid 90s with lows
around 70 to the lower 70s. Temps should trend cooler by the
weekend due to cold air advection behind the front. May see lows
in the 50s with highs in the upper 70s to around 80 by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 636 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

Convective line timing remains the main concern. Line has still
not congealed with persistent outflow, but appears this process may
be occurring at this time. Have TS mention a bit earlier than
previously expected. Brief to periods of IFR visibilities are
likely given upstream obs. When to end TS is other concern with
additional storms currently behind the front. Have left timing of
this rather similar at this point but will have to monitor trends.
Front should be south of the terminals before redevelopment
occurs in peak heating Monday.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...65

Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 31, 3:43 PM CDT, 8 hours 30 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
343 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-012045-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
343 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS...JUST WEST OF CONCORDIA...THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING. THE
STORMS WILL THEN QUICKLY SPREAD EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS
THROUGH 10 PM. THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS MORE LIKELY TO MOVE
INTO EAST CENTRAL KANSAS TOWARDS MIDNIGHT.

LARGE HAIL AS BIG AS GOLF BALLS AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS
OF 60 TO 80 MPH ARE THE MOST LIKELY HAZARD WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS.
IF STORMS REMAIN DISCRETE...THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED TORNADO
MAINLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. AS THE STORMS SPREAD EAST...THEY AREA EXPECTED TO
EVOLVE INTO A LINE OF STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS BECOMING A
GREATER HAZARD.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.
THESE STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL SOUTH
OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR STORMS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 35 DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. LARGE HAIL COULD OCCUR WITH THE STORMS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND LINGER
THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WHILE
THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM IS IN THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
EVENING AND MAKE REPORTS TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AND THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA.

WOLTERS

In the hours before

Local storm report, Aug 31, 9:40 PM CDT, 2 hours 33 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
940 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0938 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 W CARBONDALE          38.82N 95.70W
08/31/2014  E60 MPH          OSAGE              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KSANDERS

Local storm report, Aug 31, 9:41 PM CDT, 2 hours 32 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
941 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0938 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 WNW CARBONDALE        38.83N 95.73W
08/31/2014  E60 MPH          OSAGE              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ESTIMATED GUST OF 60 MPH FROM TRAINED SPOTTER.

&&

BDRAKE

Local storm report, Aug 31, 9:53 PM CDT, 2 hours 20 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
953 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0952 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 SW RICHLAND           38.86N 95.58W
08/31/2014  E60 MPH          OSAGE              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER ESTIMATE UP TO 60 MPH GUST

&&

BDRAKE

Local storm report, Aug 31, 10:22 PM CDT, 1 hour 51 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1022 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NNW GLASCO            39.43N 97.87W
08/31/2014                   CLOUD              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ESTIMATED 60 MPH WINDS WITH LARGE TREE LIMB BLOWN DOWN.

0550 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 N GLASCO              39.45N 97.83W
08/31/2014  E65.00 MPH       CLOUD              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

0616 PM     TSTM WND GST     8 E GLASCO              39.36N 97.69W
08/31/2014  E70.00 MPH       CLOUD              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

0619 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 SSE GLASCO            39.34N 97.84W
08/31/2014  M60.00 MPH       CLOUD              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA SIZE HAIL WITH 50-60MPH ESTIMATED GUSTS.

0626 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 ENE DELPHOS           39.29N 97.68W
08/31/2014  M62.00 MPH       OTTAWA             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

0629 PM     HAIL             10 ESE GLASCO           39.30N 97.67W
08/31/2014  E1.00 INCH       OTTAWA             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

0629 PM     TSTM WND GST     10 ESE GLASCO           39.30N 97.67W
08/31/2014  E70.00 MPH       OTTAWA             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

0630 PM     TSTM WND GST     DELPHOS                 39.27N 97.77W
08/31/2014  M59.00 MPH       OTTAWA             KS   MESONET

0640 PM     TSTM WND DMG     13 N CLAY CENTER        39.57N 97.12W
08/31/2014                   CLAY               KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SHERIFF REPORTED TREE DOWN ON K15 NEAR THE WASHINGTON CO
            LINE.

0645 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HANOVER                 39.89N 96.88W
08/31/2014                   WASHINGTON         KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES BLOWN DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR DATA.

0645 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SE HANOVER              39.89N 96.88W
08/31/2014                   WASHINGTON         KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            2 INCH BRANCHES DOWN. ALSO HAD HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL.

0651 PM     TSTM WND GST     10 SE LINN              39.58N 96.95W
08/31/2014  E60.00 MPH       WASHINGTON         KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

0725 PM     TSTM WND GST     7 S WATERVILLE          39.59N 96.75W
08/31/2014  E60.00 MPH       MARSHALL           KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MARSHALL COUNTY KS EM HAD A CITIZEN REPORT ESTIMATED WIND
            GUST OF 50-60 MPH 7 MILES SOUTH OF WATERVILLE, KS.

0734 PM     TSTM WND GST     RANDOLPH                39.43N 96.76W
08/31/2014  E60.00 MPH       RILEY              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

0735 PM     HAIL             LEONARDVILLE            39.36N 96.86W
08/31/2014  E1.25 INCH       RILEY              KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            COUNTY EM HAD CITIZEN REPORT ESTIMATED 1 INCH TO 1.5 INCH
            HAIL.

0735 PM     TSTM WND DMG     RANDOLPH                39.43N 96.76W
08/31/2014                   RILEY              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            3.5 INCH TREE LIMBS SNAPPED OF BY ESTIMATED 60 MPH WINDS.

0739 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 SSW BAILEYVILLE       39.79N 96.21W
08/31/2014  E70.00 MPH       NEMAHA             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ESTIMATED 65 TO 70 MPH WINDS.

0840 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 NW JUNCTION CITY      39.09N 96.89W
08/31/2014  E60.00 MPH       GEARY              KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            RILEY COUNTY EM HAD CITIZEN REPORT ESTIMATED 60 MPH WIND
            GUST NEAR MILFORD LAKE DAM.

0844 PM     TSTM WND GST     FORT RILEY AIRFIELD     39.06N 96.76W
08/31/2014  M51.00 MPH       GEARY              KS   ASOS

0849 PM     TSTM WND GST     FORT RILEY AIRFIELD     39.06N 96.76W
08/31/2014  M56.00 MPH       GEARY              KS   ASOS

0920 PM     TSTM WND GST     WSW HARVEYVILLE         38.79N 95.96W
08/31/2014  E60.00 MPH       WABAUNSEE          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL SMALL TREE LIMBS DOWN.

0931 PM     TSTM WND GST     WSW HARVEYVILLE         38.79N 95.96W
08/31/2014  E60.00 MPH       WABAUNSEE          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL SMALL LIMBS DOWN.

0938 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 WNW CARBONDALE        38.83N 95.73W
08/31/2014  E60.00 MPH       OSAGE              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ESTIMATED GUST OF 60 MPH FROM TRAINED SPOTTER.

0938 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 W CARBONDALE          38.82N 95.70W
08/31/2014  E60.00 MPH       OSAGE              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

0952 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 SW RICHLAND           38.86N 95.58W
08/31/2014  E60.00 MPH       OSAGE              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER ESTIMATE UP TO 60 MPH GUST

&&

KSANDERS

Local storm report, Aug 31, 10:31 PM CDT, 1 hour 42 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1031 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 SE OLSBURG            39.39N 96.55W
08/31/2014  E60 MPH          POTTAWATOMIE       KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KSANDERS

Special weather statement, Sep 1, 12:13 AM CDT, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1213 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

KSZ035-010545-
DICKINSON-
1213 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN DICKINSON COUNTY...

THROUGH 1245 AM CDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST
AT 45 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN DICKINSON COUNTY. NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. SOME
LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE HOPE AND HERINGTON.

&&

LAT...LON 3877 9693 3861 9693 3860 9701 3860 9737
      3861 9738 3879 9738
TIME...MOT...LOC 0512Z 289DEG 57KT 3874 9724 3832 9755

GARGAN

The office that day

Everything else NWS Topeka, KS issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Aug 31, 7:05 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Clay	24 min
Aug 31, 7:21 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Clay, Geary, Pottawatomie, Riley	39 min
Aug 31, 7:38 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Marshall, Pottawatomie, Riley	52 min
Aug 31, 7:44 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Marshall, Nemaha	46 min
Aug 31, 7:51 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Jackson, Marshall, Nemaha, Pottawatomie, Riley, Wabaunsee	39 min
Aug 31, 8:01 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Clay, Dickinson, Geary, Morris, Ottawa, Riley	44 min
Aug 31, 8:58 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TOP	Morris, Wabaunsee	32 min
Aug 31, 9:06 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TOP	Jefferson, Shawnee	24 min
Aug 31, 9:32 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Douglas, Franklin, Osage, Shawnee	43 min
Aug 31, 9:56 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Douglas, Franklin	19 min
Aug 31, 10:26 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	TOP	Dickinson	2 hr
Aug 31, 11:29 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	TOP	Dickinson	4 hr
Sep 1, 12:26 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TOP	Morris	34 min
Sep 1, 12:28 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TOP	Lyon	32 min
Sep 1, 12:34 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	TOP	Lyon, Morris	116 min
Sep 1, 12:56 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TOP	Morris	34 min
Sep 1, 1:09 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Lyon	51 min
Sep 1, 1:39 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Coffey, Lyon	36 min
Sep 1, 1:44 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	TOP	Anderson, Coffey, Franklin, Osage	2 hr
Sep 1, 2:09 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TOP	Anderson	36 min
Sep 1, 2:40 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	TOP	Lyon, Morris, Osage	2 hr

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Kansas, 2014 Every special weather statement in 2014

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.